Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:30ET CPI, Canada March Unemployment Rate; 10:00ET Factory Orders, U. of Mich. Sentiment,
Durable Goods Orders; 2:00ET Federal Budget Balance

Highlights and News:  

• MARCH CORE CPI RISES 0.2% M/M; EST. +0.3%
• Ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran appears to be largely holding
• PM Netanyahu’s long-running corruption trial will resume on Sunday
• US and Iranian delegations are set to meet in Pakistan on Saturday
•  Daily commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains close to zero
  
• Artemis II’s four astronauts are set to arrive home today
  

Global stocks edged higher ahead of Saturday’s US-Iran peace talks, as European markets advanced and Asian shares posted their best weekly gain in over three years.
Hopes for a de-escalation in the Middle East grew after Israel signaled it was seeking talks with Lebanon, which could help reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut, with shipowners awaiting clarification on its status, and
the US and Iran appeared to pause most strikes after fighting continued in the region on Wednesday. Trump said on Thursday he was “very optimistic” about a deal with Iran and Israel was “going to low-key” it with strikes on Tehran-backed Hezbollah militants
in Lebanon, although Prime Minister Netanyahu reiterated his position that the ongoing attacks weren’t part of the US-Iran ceasefire deal. Markets received an additional boost from news of a potential peace deal between Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine’s top negotiator
with Russia said he sees progress toward a potential peace deal with the Kremlin, saying “I don’t think it will be long”.

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures steadied after a seven-day rally as investors prepare for CPI data before attention turns to US-Iran discussions in Islamabad at the weekend. The S&P 500 index is on
track for its biggest weekly advance in almost a year. Trump said he was “optimistic” about a deal with Iran but later threatened Tehran over charging fees in the Strait of Hormuz. Trump demanded that Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz while Israel and Hezbollah
exchanged fire, complicating peace talks due to start in Pakistan tomorrow.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.1%, Nasdaq +0.2%, Russell 2000 +0.2%, DJI +0.05%

In pre-market trading, CoreWeave (CRWV) gains 4% after Anthropic PBC agreed to rent data center capacity from the company. Docusign (DOCU) slips 1.7% after Citi downgraded
the company and other application software stocks to neutral, saying the group they doesn’t have any exciting 12-month catalysts. The other downgraded stocks include Autodesk (ADSK), which is down 1.4%. Kyivstar Group (KYIV) rises 9% after Ukraine’s top negotiator
with Russia said he sees progress toward a possible peace deal between the two countries. Lumentum (LITE) climbs 5% after the firm said demand from the biggest US tech companies is accelerating. Peer Coherent (COHR) climbs 4%. Organon & Co. (OGN) soars 21%
after the Economic Times reported that Sun Pharmaceutical is set to make a $12 billion offer for debt-ridden company. Tecnoglass (TGLS) slips 2% after the window manufacturer lowered its full-year adjusted Ebitda outlook due to tariffs on certain aluminum-containing
products.

Semiconductor ETF relative to S&P 500 at all-time highs.

Software stocks continue to underperform semiconductor shares.

European gauges are higher, headed for a third weekly gain as investors grow more hopeful about a resolution of the Iran war ahead of weekend talks. Defense stocks
are under pressure after news emerged of a potential peace deal between Ukraine and Russia. Italian luxury brand Brunello Cucinelli jumped over 6% after reporting solid first-quarter earnings thanks to strong retail sales. Reply shares rose as much as 8.4%
in Milan trading after the digital services firm announced that it would buy back ordinary shares worth as much as €550m. Plejd shares gain as much as 16% to hit a fresh record high after earnings from the Swedish electrical equipment maker beat expectations
across all metrics, with first-quarter Ebit 49% ahead. Sodexo plunged as much as 20%, to the lowest level since 2011, after the French food services company issued weaker-than-expected guidance. Stoxx 600 +0.75%, DAX +0.7%, CAC +0.6%, FTSE 100 +0.3%. Media
+2.4%, Luxury +2.1%, Technology +1.8%. Defense -1.4%, Energy -1.4%.

Shares in Asia advanced, posting their biggest weekly gain since November 2022, as a ceasefire between the US and Iran triggered a relief rally. The MSCI Asia Pacific
Index gained 0.7%, taking its weekly increase to 6%. Chipmakers TSMC and SK Hynix were among biggest boosts to the gauge. TSMC’s quarterly sales rose 35% to $35.6 billion as AI chip demand held up early in the Iran war. March sales were up 5%. Indonesia’s
benchmark jumped 2%, leading gains around the region. Chinese robotics shares advance on a media report that Unitree is preparing to debut its humanoid robot globally via Alibaba’s platform. Chinese electric-vehicle makers jumped after data showed the nation’s
exports of EVs and hybrids more than doubled in March to a record. Chinese brokerage stocks rise, led by Citic Securities after the firm reported 1Q preliminary net income gain of 55%. Indonesia +2.1%, Nikkei 225 +1.8%, Taiwan +1.6%, CSI 300 +1.5%, Kospi +1.4%,
Sensex +1.2%,Thailand +1.1%, Vietnam +0.8%, Hang Seng Index +0.5%, Philippines +0.1%. Topix -0.05%, ASX 200 -0.1%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are slightly cheaper across the curve, on track to snap a four-day run of gains as investors await March US inflation data to see the impact of higher
oil prices. Economists project a 0.9% increase in the consumer price index, the sharpest one-month advance since 2022. US yields are 1bp-2bp cheaper across a slightly steeper curve, 10-year by 1.8bp near 4.29%.

METALS: 

Spot gold inches up ahead of the inflation data, staying on track for a third straight weekly gain, as the market reassessed the chances of US interest rate cuts
if the fragile US-Iran ceasefire holds. Investors anticipate a 24% chance of at least one rate cut by December, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool, up from 12% the week prior. Spot gold +0.2%, Silver +0.8%, Copper futures +2.1%. 

ENERGY:   

Oil inched lower as traders gauge whether the two-week ceasefire accord can be cemented into a lasting peace, with President Trump saying he was “optimistic” about
the talks. A US delegation headed by Vice President JD Vance is set to meet Iranian officials in Islamabad on Saturday for talks on a potential deal, with markets shifting attention back to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump said Iran was doing
a “very poor” job of allowing oil to pass through the waterway. “That is not the agreement we have!” he wrote. Saudi Arabia reported that a recent wave of Iranian attacks had significantly reduced its production capacity. Brent traded above $96 a barrel after
adding more than 1% on Thursday, though futures are still down about 11% this week. The US is offering as much as 30 million barrels from its strategic reserve as part of an exchange. Meanwhile, China allowed state refiners to tap commercial reserves, sources
said. WTI -0.7%, Brent -0.8%, US Nat Gas -1%, RBOB +0.05%.

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar is mixed versus major peers in relatively calm trading as traders kept their focus on whether the ceasefire between the US and Iran
would hold. The deal appeared to be on thin ice, as Israel bombed more targets in Lebanon, and there was no sign Iran had lifted its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The euro is slightly higher at a one-month high. The yen showed little reaction to data that
Japan’s consumer confidence worsened in March for the first time ⁠in three months. Japanese
Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama says authorities are prepared to take action on all fronts in markets, considering the impact of currency moves on households and the economy. Yuan is little changed after Chinese producer prices rise for first time since
2022. Other currencies were broadly steady. US$ Index -0.1%, GBPUSD +0.05%, EURUSD +0.1%, USDJPY +0.1%, AUDUSD -0.2%, NZDUSD -0.2%, USDCHF -0.2%, USDCAD +0.05%, USDSEK -0.3%, USDNOK -0.1%.

Spot Bitcoin -0.5%, Spot Ethereum ~flat. 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Holcim (HOLN SW) ADRs Raised to Neutral at BNP Paribas; PT $18.70
• KNOT Offshore (KNOP) Raised to Buy at Fearnley; PT $15
• MacroGenics (MGNX) Raised to Buy at B Riley; PT $9
• Madison Square Garden Sports (MSGS) US Raised to Buy at Seaport Global Securities; PT $430
• Meta (META) Raised to Strong Buy at CFRA
• Nexstar Media (NXST) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $220
• Ryman Hospitality (RHP) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley
• Shake Shack (SHAK) Raised to Outperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $120
• Southern Copper (SCCO) Raised to Neutral at Goldman; PT $178
• Downgrades
• Altius Minerals (ALS CN) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen; PT C$54
• Autodesk (ADSK) Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $246
• Axalta (AXTA) Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $30
• CCC Intelligent Solutions (CCC) Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $6
• Docusign (DOCU) Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $50
• G2 Goldfields Inc (GTWO CN) Cut to Neutral at Roth Capital Partners
• Nice Ltd (NICE IT) ADRs Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $119
• Nike (NKE) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $50
• Nutanix (NTNX) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $44
• Roots Corp. (ROOT CN) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen; PT C$4.25
• ServiceNow (NOW) Cut to Neutral at UBS; PT $100
• Sherwin-Williams (SHW) Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $365
• SimilarWeb (SMWB) Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $3
• Simply Good Foods (SMPL) Cut to Equal-Weight at Stephens; PT $14
• Telus (T CN) Cut to Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT C$21.50
• Veeva (VEEV) Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $176
• Initiations
• AbCellera Biologics (ABCL) Rated New Buy at Jones; PT $11
• Caris Life Sciences (CAI) Rated New Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $21
• CBIZ (CBZ) Rated New Equal-Weight at Stephens; PT $31
• Definium Therapeutics In (DFTX) Rated New Overweight at Piper Sandler
• Grail (GRAL) Rated New Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $58
• Rated New Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $54
• Infleqtion (INFQ) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $22
• Insmed (INSM) Rated New Outperform at Raymond James; PT $200
• K-Bro Linen (KBL CN) Rated New Outperform at National Bank; PT C$51
• Lyell Immunopharma (LYEL) Rated New Strong Buy at Needham; PT $44
• Macom (MTSI) Rated New Buy at Loop Capital
• Mechanics Bancorp (MCHB) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $17
• Milestone Pharmaceuticals (MIST) Rated New Strong Buy at Raymond James
• Nakamoto (NAKA) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $1
• Pharming (PHARM NA) ADRs Rated New Buy at Canaccord; PT $37
• Praxis Precision (PRAX) Rated New Strong Buy at Raymond James; PT $815
• ProPetro (PUMP) Reinstated Neutral at Goldman; PT $15
• PTC Therapeutics (PTCT) Reinstated Outperform at Raymond James; PT $108
• Rapport Therapeutics (RAPP) Rated New Strong Buy at Raymond James
• Sharplink (SBET) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen
• Skillz (SKLZ) Rated New Overweight at Cantor
• Strive (ASST) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $26
• United Therapeutics (UTHR) Rated New Outperform at Raymond James
• UroGen Pharma (URGN) Reinstated Buy at Jefferies; PT $40
• Western Exploration Inc (WEX CN) Rated New Speculative Buy at Paradigm Capital; PT C$2
• Whitefiber (WYFI) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $20

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke