Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA: 

Highlights and News:  

• US to impose blockade from 10 a.m. ET today of all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports
• US military to enforce blockade in the Oman Gulf and the Arabian Sea – Sources
• Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah continue to exchange strikes
• IRAN: NO SECURITY FOR PERSIAN GULF PORTS IF OWN IS THREATENED
• Trump said he doesn’t care if Iran returns to the negotiating table
• China announced measures to improve relations with Taiwan
• Goldman Equity Trading Revenue Sets Record
• Rory McIlroy became the fourth player to win back-to-back Masters titles
  

Global stocks fell as oil prices jumped above $100 a barrel, with the US Navy set to impose a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz to restrict Iranian shipments after
ceasefire talks with Tehran failed, deepening an unprecedented global energy shock. The US is moving forward with a naval blockade of maritime traffic to and from Iranian ports via the Strait of Hormuz. The blockade is scheduled to begin at 10 a.m. ET today.
President Trump noted that ships will still be allowed to transit the strait freely if they are not docking in Iranian ports. Iran’s military adviser to the supreme leader said the nation “will not allow” such a US embargo and had leverage to counter it. Tehran
characterized US demands as “excessive,” according to the semi-official Tasnim agency. Vice President JD Vance said Washington’s core goal was a commitment from Iran not to seek a nuclear weapon but returned home without it. With hours to go until the blockade
comes into effect, much of the detail about how it would work remained unclear. The US military said additional information would be communicated to mariners with a formal notice prior to the start of the blockade.

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures fell but the moves look relatively contained following the weekend’s deadlock in US-Iran peace talks. President Trump announced a planned blockade of the Strait of Hormuz
in a post on Truth Social on Sunday. It said the US would “begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz,” and that other countries would be involved in the blockade. Investors with longer-term time horizons
should use the geopolitics-driven weakness in equity markets to buy the dip, according to strategists at JPMorgan, noting that equities have historically proved resilient to oil shocks. The reporting season starts today, with Goldman on deck before the open.
Wall Street’s biggest banks are expected to unveil a record $18 billion stock-trading haul for 1Q as the war and the software scare fueled more activity from investors. Overall, analysts project S&P 500 earnings will show roughly 12% annual growth for 1Q.
Stripping out the technology sector, it would be around 3%, the weakest growth in two years.  

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P -0.6%, Nasdaq -0.6%, Russell 2000 -0.8%, DJI -1%

In pre-market trading, Goldman Sachs Group (GS) fell over 4% as a revenue miss in fixed-income, currency and commodities trading outweighed a record haul from equities.
Baker Hughes (BKR) rises 1% after Hexagon AB agreed to buy the company’s Waygate Technologies unit for about $1.45 billion in cash Children’s Place (PLCE) falls 17% after the kids apparel retailer reported adjusted loss per share for the fourth quarter of
$1.86 vs. a loss per share of 75 cents in the year-ago period. Fastenal (FAST) slips 4% after the industrial supplies company reported operating income for the first quarter that came in just below the average analyst estimate. GFL Environmental (GFL) falls
over 3% after the waste management company agreed to acquire Canada’s Secure Waste Infrastructure Corp. for C$24.75 per share. Ideaya Biosciences (IDYA) rises 15% after the drug developer said a mid-late stage trial of its experimental combination therapy
for a type of eye cancer had met its main goal. Leggett & Platt (LEG) climbs 7% after bedding company Somnigroup agreed to buy the home furniture manufacturer in an all-stock deal valued at about $2.5 billion. Replimune (REPL) plunges 63% after the US Food
and Drug Administration rejected the company’s skin cancer treatment for a second time.

European gauges gapped lower with airline and travel stocks under pressure from elevated fuel prices, while energy shares outperform. Fertilizer stocks are gaining
ground as the US threat to blockade the Strait of Hormuz heightens expectations of possible supply disruptions. Among individual names, Wickes shares drop over 6% after Panmure Liberum downgrades the home improvement retailer to hold, citing elevated spending.
Polypeptide shares rise as much as 16% on potential takeover interest from private equity firms. Sweden’s Hexagon agreed to buy Waygate Technologies for about $1.45 billion in cash from Baker Hughes. The UK won’t take part in the proposed Hormuz blockade,
the government said, setting up another point of contention between Trump and PM Keir Starmer. Stoxx 600 -0.8%, DAX -1.1%, CAC -1%, FTSE 100 -0.5%.  Travel & Leisure -2%, Luxury -1.9%, Telecom -1.7%. Energy +0.9%.

Shares in Asia were mostly lower as Trump’s ordered blockade of the Strait of Hormuz weighed on sentiment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined 0.8%, with Samsung Electronics
and Tencent Holdings among the biggest drags. Benchmarks in Taiwan and mainland China edged higher as Asia’s largest economy unveiled policy measures to demonstrate “goodwill” toward the island on Sunday, following a landmark meeting between President Xi Jinping
and Taiwan opposition leader Cheng Li-wun. The Taiex Index closed at a record high. Thailand was closed for a holiday. Chinese rare earth stocks jumped after China Northern Rare Earth and Inner Mongolia BaoTou Steel Union said they’re raising 2Q rare earth
concentrate prices. Sensex -0.9%, Hang Seng Index -0.9%, Kospi -0.9%, Nikkei 225 -0.7%, Philippines -0.7%, ASX 200 -0.4%, Singapore -0.1%. Taiwan +0.1%, CSI 300 +0.2%, Vietnam +0.5%, Indonesia +0.6%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasury futures hold small losses, having partially recovered from opening gap down that followed US President Trump’s weekend order to blockade the Strait of Hormuz
after US-Iran peace talks failed. US yields are 1bp-3bp cheaper across a slightly steeper curve; 10-year yields up 3 bps to ~4.35%. IG dollar issuance slate empty so far, however around $40 billion of volume is projected, anchored by the six largest US banks;
Treasury coupon auctions resume April 22 with 20-year bond reopening.

METALS: 

Gold slid amid mounting inflation concerns after US-Iran peace talks ended without resolution. The US plan to blockade the Strait of Hormuz deepened a global energy-supply
shock, raising inflationary risks and making it more likely that central banks will delay cutting interest rates. Bullion fell as much as 2.2% to trade below $4,650 an ounce, before paring much of the loss. Spot gold -0.8%, Silver -2.2%, Copper futures -0.2%. 

ENERGY:   

Oil surged with natural gas as the US vowed to blockade all vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz that called at Iran ports or were headed there. Brent rose
as much as 9.1% to near $104 a barrel, while European gas futures spiked almost 18% at one point. If successful, a blockade of Iranian shipments would restrict the one Persian Gulf oil flow that has continued throughout the war, while Tehran’s threats to target
vessels and ports in response amplifies the risks for other producers. Iran’s military said it would target all ports in the Gulf region if its own shipping hubs are threatened. Three fuel tankers were attempting to exit the Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz by
sailing close to Iran’s coast, making them the first vessels to try to pass through since the US announced its blockade. Trump said vessels would be able to transit if they’re not stopping in Iran. The ultimate goal, Trump said, would be to pressure Iran to
end its effective closure of the strait, a choke point for about 20% ⁠of the world’s
oil, to all but the countries that secure safe passage from Tehran. Two sanctioned supertankers laden with Iranian crude dropped anchor off Indian ports, marking what may be the first such cargoes to arrive in India in almost seven years. Iran has been exporting
more oil during the war than before it started, with China, Turkey, Pakistan and India as main buyers. WTI +7.9%, Brent +7.6%, US Nat Gas +2.7%, RBOB +4.4%.

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the safe haven dollar rose against most peers while sterling fell as energy prices surged after peace talks broke down and Trump ordered a blockade
of all ships calling at Iranian ports. “In intensive talks at highest level in 47 years, Iran engaged with US in good faith to end war. But when just inches away from ‘Islamabad MoU’, we encountered maximalism, shifting goalposts, and blockade,” Iran’s Foreign
Minister Abbas Araghchi said in a post on X. The Norwegian krone is the best performing G-10 currency, rising as much as 0.4% against the greenback. The Hungarian forint rallies over 2% against the euro after Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s election defeat.
US$ Index +0.35%, GBPUSD -0.3%, EURUSD -0.3%, USDJPY +0.3%, AUDUSD -0.4%, NZDUSD -0.35%, USDCHF +0.25%, USDCAD +0.05%, USDSEK +0.5%, USDNOK -0.3%.

Spot Bitcoin -0.5%, Spot Ethereum -1.2%. 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Arrow Electronics (ARW) Raised to Buy at Truist Secs; PT $183
• Avnet (AVT) Raised to Buy at Truist Secs; PT $80
• Bilibili (BILI) ADRs Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $31
• Blackstone (BX) Raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $154
• Chime Financial (CHYM) Raised to Buy at Compass Point; PT $27
• Cogeco Communications (CCA CN) Raised to Buy at TD Cowen; PT C$83
• Cogeco (CGO CN) Raised to Buy at TD Cowen; PT C$81
• Constellation Brands (STZ) Raised to Buy at TD Cowen; PT $190
• Copa Holdings (CPA) Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $138
• CoreWeave (CRWV) Raised to Outperform at Macquarie; PT $125
• Diodes (DIOD) Raised to Buy at Truist Secs; PT $98
• Latam Airlines (LTM CI) ADRs Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $63.40
• ON Semi (ON) Raised to Buy at BofA; PT $85
• Quebecor (QBR/B CN) Raised to Outperform at National Bank; PT C$59
• Rexford Industrial (REXR) Raised to Outperform at Evercore ISI; PT $40
• Ryanair (RYA ID) ADRs Raised to Outperform at Bernstein; PT $77
• Starbucks (SBUX) Raised to Hold at Jefferies; PT $92
• T-Mobile (TMUS) Raised to Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $260
• Tempus AI (TEM) Raised to Buy at TD Cowen; PT $65
• Viper Energy (VNOM) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $55
• Williams-Sonoma (WSM) Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $218
• Downgrades
• Best Buy (BBY) Cut to Sell at Goldman; PT $59
• Blackline Safety (BLN CN) Cut to Sell at TD Cowen; PT C$9
• Centessa Pharmaceuticals (CNTA) ADRs Cut to Hold at Truist Secs; PT $38
• Nebius Group (NBIS) Cut to Hold at Freedom Capital; PT $154
• Nike (NKE) Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT $48
• NXP Semi (NXPI) Cut to Neutral at BofA; PT $230
• Oshkosh (OSK) Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $170
• Parsons (PSN) Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $60
• Petco (WOOF) Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT $3.83
• Replimune (REPL) Cut to Sell at HC Wainwright
• Cut to Neutral at Wedbush; PT $2
• Cut to Market Perform at Leerink; PT $2
• Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT $10
• Cut to Underperform at BMO; PT $1
• Cut to Neutral at Cantor
• Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $4
• Saputo (SAP CN) Cut to Sector Perform at National Bank; PT C$46
• Volaris (VOLARA MM) ADRs Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT $7.60
• Whitestone REIT (WSR) Cut to Neutral at Cantor; PT $19
• Initiations
• Adobe (ADBE) Rated New Neutral at BTIG
• Biohaven (BHVN) Reinstated Buy at Canaccord; PT $21
• Bright Minds Biosciences (DRUG CN) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT C$200.59
• Caris Life Sciences (CAI) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $28
• Chime Financial (CHYM) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $25
• Coherent Corp (COHR) Rated New Buy at William O’Neil
• Credo Technology (CRDO) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $175
• Cybin (HELP CN) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen
• Figma (FIG) Rated New Neutral at BTIG
• Generate Biomedicines (GENB) Rated New Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $16
• GFL Environmental (GFL CN) Reinstated Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT C$69
• Hammond Power Solutions (HPS/A CN) Rated New Outperform at RBC; PT C$250
• Janus Living (JAN) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $27
• Johnson Controls (JCI) Rated New Inline at Evercore ISI; PT $155
• Luckin Coffee (LKNCY) ADRs Rated New Strong Buy at Huachuang; PT $47.67
• Metatek-Group (MTEK CN) Rated New Buy at Canaccord; PT C$8
• Rollins (ROL) Rated New Hold at Loop Capital; PT $56
• SiNtx Technologies Inc (SINT) Rated New Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $10
• Sonida Senior Living (SNDA) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $36
• Stryker (SYK) Rated New Outperform at Leerink; PT $410
• Tempus AI (TEM) Rated New Underperform at Jefferies; PT $35
• Thor Explorations (THX CN) Rated New Buy at Shore Capital; PT C$2.32
• Veracyte (VCYT) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $45
• Yum China (YUMC) Reinstated Accumulate at Zhongtai Securities
• Zimmer Biomet (ZBH) Rated New Market Perform at Leerink; PT $101

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke