Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:   8:30ET Empire Manufacturing, Import Price Index, Export Prices Index, Fed’s Hammack speaks,
Fed’s Barr speaks; 10:00ET NAHB Housing Market Index; 1:00ET 20-Year Bond Auction; 1:45ET Fed’s Bowman speaks; 2:00ET Fed Beige Book; 4:00ET TIC Flows

Highlights and News:  

• TRUMP: CHINA AGREED NOT TO SEND WEAPONS TO IRAN
  
• US, Iran Gave ‘In Principle Agreement’ to Extend Truce: AP citing Regional Officials
• IRAN WON’T ALLOW SHIPMENTS TO/FROM GULF IF BLOCKADE REMAINS: TV
• Iran Military Says Continued Blockade Would Break Ceasefire: TV
• Trump Says China and Saudis Did Not Object to Hormuz Blockade by US Navy
• Trump: Anthropic threat is not systemic. We will work it out
  
• Trump said the US-UK trade deal “can always be changed,” relationship is “sad”
• SEC approved a plan to remove a restriction on day-trading activity by small investors

Global stocks fluctuated as stock and bond markets continued to price out much of the risk premium that had built up since the conflict began, with the US and Iran
now working toward a second round of negotiations. Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson said it is highly probable that Iran will host a Pakistani delegation today as part of ongoing negotiations. While geopolitical risks linger, investor fatigue is increasingly
tempering responses to incremental developments. According to Iranian officials, any targeting of Iranian shipping will be considered a breach and met with a forceful response. If the US continues to impose a naval blockade in the region and creates insecurity
for Iran’s ships, “this action by the US will constitute a prelude to a breach of the ceasefire,” Iran’s military spokesman says, according to state TV. Iran said it plans to use alternative routes to divert the blockade. President Trump stated that neither
China nor Saudi Arabia objected to the US Navy’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures are little changed after yesterday’s rally, with traders now looking for confirmation of the next round of negotiations. Trump played down the prospect of renewed fighting
in the war with Iran, saying the war is “close to over” and extending a ceasefire that expires next week may not be necessary. He added that talks between the US and Iran might restart “over the next two days.”  S&P 500 futures are flat after closing within
a whisker of January’s record high on Tuesday, with the Nasdaq 100 notching its longest daily winning streak since 2021. With the earnings season now in full swing, investors will watch for signs of whether the conflict is denting the outlook for earnings.
Relative earnings outlook and valuations make the case to be overweight US versus Europe, Barclays strategists say. They prefer industrials, materials, tech, parts of energy, and banks over consumers and AI losers, upgrade utilities to overweight and cut healthcare
to market weight. Anthropic received several offers for a new round of funding that would more than double its pre-money valuation to about $800B or higher, sources said. 

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P ~flat, Nasdaq -0.1%, Russell 2000 -0.15%, DJI flat.

In pre-market trading, Quantum computing stocks extend gains, after Nvidia unveiled a suite of new open-source AI models aimed at accelerating progress within quantum
computing. Solar stocks are rising after Reuters reported that China held initial talks with providers of equipment to make solar panels as it considers limiting exports of the most advanced technology to the US. Gainers include First Solar (FSLR) +4%. Broadcom
(AVGO) rises 3% after the technology company expanded its partnership with Meta to deploy AI infrastructure. BRP Inc. (DOO) slumps 22% after the Canadian recreational manufacturer withdrew its financial outlook for the 2027 fiscal year. Cloudflare (NET) gains
3% as Piper Sandler upgrades to overweight, calling it an “AI-winner to own.” Gitlab (GTLB) gains 6% after the company announced a collaboration with Google Cloud to bring agentic DevSecOps to enterprise teams using Vertex AI. Robinhood (HOOD) rises 7% and
Webull (BULL) gains 8% after the Securities and Exchange Commission gave the go-ahead for sweeping changes to a restriction on day-trading activity by small investors. Snap Inc. (SNAP) climbs 8% after saying it is laying off roughly 1,000 full-time employees,
or 16% of its global workforce. TeraWulf (WULF) falls over 7% after the Bitcoin mining company’s preliminary first-quarter revenue came in below Wall Street’s expectations.

Bank ETF relative to S&P 500

INTC/SOXX: has not been above the 200 week mvg avg since briefly in 2014

European gauges are mixed with health care shares leading gains, while luxury and consumer products stocks are the biggest laggards. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is slightly
lower following disappointing sales updates by luxury firms Hermes International SCA and Kering SA. According to strategists at Barclays, first-quarter earnings estimates for Europe and the US ex-tech have risen since the war began, but the roughly 3% year-on-year
growth expected in both regions is a “low hurdle” given resilient macro. ASML Holding NV raised its full-year sales forecast as the surge in global artificial intelligence spending boosts demand for the company’s advanced chipmaking machines. Shares reverse
early gains to trade lower. Stellantis NV’s global shipments jumped 12% in the first quarter, led by a surge in demand in North America. Shares are up more than 3%. Aixtron gains over 15% after pre-announcing its first-quarter results and lifting full year
guidance. Hermès shares fall as much as 14%, the most on record, after the luxury-goods firm reports first-quarter sales that missed.  Kering shares fall 10% after the French luxury group’s key fashion & leather goods unit fell short of expectations, dragged
down by worse-than-expected Gucci sales. Stoxx 600 -0.15%, DAX +0.1%, CAC -0.5%, FTSE 100 +0.1%. Luxury -2.9%, Personal Goods -1.4%, Technology -1%. Healthcare +0.7%, Real Estate +0.4%.

Shares in Asia rose after the US and Iran stepped up efforts to arrange a second round of peace talks. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 1%, led by gains in TSMC and
Samsung Electronics. A gauge of the region’s technology stocks jumped nearly 3% to an all-time high, before paring some gains. South Korea’s Kospi outperformed major markets, while Indonesia lagged. Shares in India were near the top of the leaderboard as trading
resumed after a holiday. Thailand was closed for a holiday.  Asian software and quantum stocks surged after Nvidia unveiled a suite of new open-source AI models aimed at accelerating progress within quantum computing. Chinese innovative drug developers’ advanced
after the government issued guidelines to improve the drug-pricing mechanism. Kospi +2.1%, Sensex +1.6%, Vietnam +1.4%, Hang Seng Tech +1.2%, Taiwan +1.2%, Philippines +0.8%, Nikkei 225 +0.4%, Hang Seng Index +0.3%, Singapore +0.3%, ASX 200 +0.1%. CSI 300
-0.3%, Indonesia -0.7%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are marginally cheaper across the curve in early US trading, having erased small gains spurred by AP report that the US and Iran agreed in principle to
extend a truce. Treasuries edged lower, with the two-year yield rising two basis points to 3.76% and 10-year yield +2bps at 4.27%. US session has few scheduled events beyond Fed Beige Book release. Corporate new-issue calendar has begun to build, with a busy
day expected after several borrowers stood down Tuesday.

METALS: 

Gold wavers as traders assessed fragile optimism for a negotiated settlement to the war in the Middle East. Spot gold slipped as much as 1.1% to $4,786 an ounce,
reversing an earlier gain. The global silver market is expected to remain in a deficit for a sixth consecutive year amid robust demand for bars and coins, and declining supplies, according to the Silver Institute. The 2026 deficit is projected to widen by
15% to 46.3 million troy ounces, the industry group said in its annual outlook published today. Spot gold -0.6%, Silver -0.9%, Copper futures +0.1%. 

ENERGY:   

Oil prices gained as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remained constrained, outweighing expectations of ‌renewed US-Iran talks aimed at ending the war in the
Middle East. Brent erased early losses to rise near $97 a barrel before paring some gains, as the US pressed ahead with a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. OPEC+ monthly crude oil production dropped sharply in March to a five-year low as the Iran war
closed the Strait of Hormuz and forced several members with storage constraints and export disruptions to cut output. Eighteen of the 22 OPEC+ members participating in the group’s production cut deal recorded output below quota levels for the eighth consecutive
month.  Later in the day, markets will be watching for official US inventory data from the Energy Information Administration,
⁠due at 10:30 ET. WTI +1%, Brent +0.8%, US Nat Gas +0.2%, RBOB -0.2%.

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar turns modestly higher as oil prices climb and investors turn cautious on concerns about a US blockade of Iranian ports. Eight oil
tankers have reversed course on direction from US forces, WSJ reports citing a US official. Hedge funds are growing increasingly bearish on the US dollar, as the prospect of renewed US-Iran talks and a potential peace deal erode the currency’s recent war-fueled
gains.  The euro dips after euro-zone industrial production fell 0.6%. Yen eases as Japanese business conditions slowed in April according to the Reuters Tankan survey released overnight, while core machinery orders improved in February. US$ Index +0.1%, GBPUSD
-0.1%, EURUSD -0.15%, USDJPY +0.2%, AUDUSD +0.15%, NZDUSD -0.1%, USDCHF +0.25%, USDCAD +0.1%, USDSEK +0.3%, USDNOK -0.05%.

Spot Bitcoin +0.1%, Spot Ethereum +0.7%. 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Alector (ALEC) Raised to Overweight at Cantor
• American Tower (AMT) Raised to Outperform at Mizuho Securities
• Cloudflare (NET) Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $222
• CRH (CRH) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $135
• Energy Fuels (EFR CN) Raised to Buy at President Capital Management
• JD.com (JD) ADRs Raised to Outperform at Macquarie
• Symbotic (SYM) Raised to Buy at DA Davidson; PT $70
• Downgrades
• Adecoagro (AGRO) Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $15
• Autoliv (ALV) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $120
• BRP Inc. (DOO CN) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen; PT C$84
• Cut to Hold at Canaccord; PT C$90
• Energy Recovery (ERII) Cut to Neutral at Northcoast
• G2 Goldfields Inc (GTWO CN) Cut to Hold at Stifel Canada; PT C$10.84
• Janux Therapeutics (JANX) Cut to Neutral at UBS; PT $15
• Parsons (PSN) Cut to Sector Weight at KeyBanc
• PSEG (PEG) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $89
• Shift4 Payments (FOUR) Cut to Peerperform at Wolfe
• SolarEdge (SEDG) Cut to Sell at Goldman; PT $31
• Initiations
• Align Technology (ALGN) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $240
• Ames National (ATLO) Rated New Neutral at Janney Montgomery; PT $31
• Autodesk (ADSK) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $300
• Celestica (CLS CN) Rated New Buy at William O’Neil
• Chime Financial (CHYM) Rated New Buy at Texas Capital; PT $28
• Citigroup (C) Reinstated Buy at William O’Neil
• Climb Bio Inc (CLYM) Rated New Outperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $18
• Dentsply (XRAY) Reinstated Sell at Citi; PT $10
• Eagle Bancorp (EGBN) Rated New Strong Buy at Raymond James; PT $32
• Elicio Therapeutics Inc (ELTX) Rated New Buy at Ladenburg Thalmann
• Envista Holdings (NVST) Rated New Neutral at Citi; PT $29
• Ferrari (RACE) Rated New Overweight at Oxcap
• GoldQuest (GQC CN) Rated New Speculative Buy at Paradigm Capital; PT C$4
• Henry Schein (HSIC) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $100
• Idexx Labs (IDXX) Rated New Neutral at Citi; PT $650
• John Marshall Bank (JMSB) Rated New Strong Buy at Raymond James; PT $24
• Joyy (JOYY) ADRs Rated New Buy at China Merchants; PT $76
• Kazia Therapeutics (KZA AU) ADRs Rated New Buy at Laidlaw; PT $25
• Lattice Semi (LSCC) Reinstated Buy at William O’Neil
• Minerva Neurosciences (NERV) Rated New Market Outperform at Citizens
• Navan (NAVN) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $18
• NervGen Pharma (NGEN CN) Rated New Buy at Lucid Capital Markets; PT $18
• Obook Holdings (OWLS) Rated New Buy at Benchmark; PT $11
• OSI Systems (OSIS) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $345
• Phibro Animal (PAHC) Rated New Neutral at Citi; PT $62
• Royal Gold (RGLD) Reinstated Buy at UBS; PT $325
• Tyra Biosciences (TYRA) Rated New Buy at Guggenheim; PT $54
• XBP Global (XBP) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $5

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke