Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:   10:00ET U. of Mich. Sentiment – Expectations – Inflation; 11:00ET KC Fed Services Activity

Highlights and News:  

• Pakistan Says Iran Foreign Minister to Visit Islamabad Tonight
• PAKISTAN OFFICIALS DIDN’T SAY WHEN US-IRAN TALKS WILL HAPPEN
• Inflation looms as China’s exporters boost prices on Iran costs
• CHINA TO RESTRICT US INVESTMENT IN KEY DOMESTIC TECH FIRMS
• HEGSETH SAYS SECOND US AIRCRAFT CARRIER WILL JOIN BLOCKADE
• Tesla began manufacturing its long-awaited Cybercab robotaxi
• Trump vowed to investigate federal employees betting on prediction markets
• DeepSeek rolled out preview versions of a new flagship AI model
  

Global stock markets showed signs of fatigue, with major indices pulling back modestly, until news that Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi will arrive in Islamabad
tonight for high-level diplomatic engagements. The news sparked hopes of renewed momentum in US-Iran ceasefire talks, easing immediate fears of prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Pakistan has been actively hosting or facilitating talks between Washington
and Tehran, making any high-profile Iranian arrival a notable de-escalation signal. A second round of peace talks between the US and Iran in Islamabad is expected, the officials said, without saying when the negotiations would take place. MSCI’s world stock
index was modestly lower on the day, but not too far from last week’s record highs. Chinese exporters are lifting prices on goods due to the Iran war driving up oil-linked input costs, signaling that global consumer inflation is likely to accelerate. Global
equity funds recorded their strongest weekly inflows in over 17 months through April 22, driven by AI demand optimism and robust first-quarter earnings from major US banks. Fed, ECB, BoJ, and BoE meetings loom next week as investors seek clarity on the war’s
fallout for inflation and growth.

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures are higher, led by tech heavy Nasdaq. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is expected to arrive in Pakistan’s capital tonight for a possible second round of peace
talks with the US, according to officials in Islamabad. Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi discussed regional developments and ceasefire-related issues with the US in separate calls with Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar and Army Chief Asim Munir, Iran’s
Foreign Ministry said. Tech shares rallied on the back of strong results from Intel and SAP SE, with the Nasdaq 100 futures leading early gains and on track for a fourth straight weekly gain. Intel surged 29% in premarket trading on a blockbuster sales forecast.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. jumped 5% in Taipei after regulators eased limits on single-stock fund holdings.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P %, Nasdaq %, Russell 2000 %, DJI %

In pre-market trading, Microsoft (MSFT) +1.2%, Amazon (AMZN) +0.9%, Alphabet (GOOGL) +0.6%, Meta Platforms (META) +0.6%, Apple (AAPL) -0.1%, Tesla (TSLA) +0.9%. Intel
(INTC) shares are up 27% — and on track to close at an all-time high if gains hold through regular trading — after the chipmaker delivered a blockbuster sales forecast. Comfort Systems USA (FIX) climbs 7% after the HVAC company reported revenue that beat estimates.
Coursera (COUR) falls 10% after the online education company’s first-quarter profit missed. Edwards Lifesciences (EW) gains 2% after the medical devices firm reported a first quarter adjusted earnings per share beat and boosted its sales forecast for the full
year. HCA Healthcare (HCA) falls 7% after the health-care services company reported net income for the first quarter that met the average analyst estimate. Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) climbs 4% after JPMorgan initiated the stock with an overweight rating. MaxLinear
(MXL) jumps 43% after the semiconductor company’s first-quarter results and second-quarter revenue forecast were both better than expected. Organon & Co. (OGN) climbs 21% after the Economic Times reported that Sun Pharma is planning to submit a binding offer
of $13 billion to acquire the US-based pharmaceutical company. Procter & Gamble (PG) gains 3% after the consumer-products maker reported stronger-than-expected results. World Kinect Corp. (WKC) rises 22% after the fuel-services company reported adjusted earnings
per share for the first quarter that beat.

European gauges get a lift from earlier, steeper losses after news that Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi may arrive in Islamabad tonight accompanied by a small delegation.
The Stoxx 600 remains moderately lower with autos and retail among the hardest hit on concern that the war in the Middle East will have a long-lasting impact on consumer sentiment. Tech sector outperforms with SAP shares rising over 5% after the company reported
robust cloud backlog growth, reassuring investors amid concerns over AI-driven disruption. Volvo shares rise as the Swedish firm raised its outlook for the European truck market after orders increased.  Telia gains as much as 3.9% after the Swedish telecommunications
group reported earnings. Siemens Energy rises as much as 4.9%, setting a new record high, after the firm saw significant order beats for both its Gas Services and Grid Technologies divisions and increased its outlook for the full year. Adyen shares rise as
much as 5.3% after agreeing a deal to buy Talon.One in its first ever acquisition. Electrolux falls as much as 25%, the most on record, after the Swedish home appliances group reported significantly weaker-than-expected 1Q figures. Stoxx 600 -0.2%, DAX +0.2%,
CAC -0.4%, FTSE 100 -0.2%. Defense -1.7%, Basic Resources -1.4%, Healthcare -1.4%, Retail -0.9%. Technology +2%, Energy +0.7%.

Shares in Asia were mixed to higher with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index gaining 0.4% as tech stock gains outweighed concerns over the progress of US-Iran peace talks.
Taiwan’s Taiex index was the best performer in the region, with TSMC leading gains to a fresh record, after the island’s financial regulator eased limits on single-stock fund holdings. Tech stocks were also buoyed by Intel’s stronger-than-expected sales outlook.
Hang Seng Tech Index turned positive after DeepSeek and Tencent unveiled new flagship AI model. In Japan, investors will be watching out for next week’s Bank of Japan meeting. Japan’s key inflation gauge accelerated for the first time in five months, suggesting
price pressures were building even before the full impact of elevated oil prices ripples through the economy. China plans to restrict tech firms including some of the country’s AI pioneers from accepting US capital without government approval, sources said.
Taiwan +3.2%, Nikkei 225 +1%, Hang Seng Tech +0.75%, Hang Seng Index +0.25%, Topix was flat. ASX 200 -0.1%, CSI 300 -0.35%, Thailand -0.35%, Singapore -0.4%, Philippines -0.7%, Vietnam -0.9%, Sensex -1.3%, Indonesia -3.4%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasury futures push to highs of the day as oil drops following a report there may be a second round of US-Iran talks, which cited a Pakistani official familiar
with the matter. US yields drop to lows of the day, remain richer by 1.5bp to 2bp across the curve with US 10-year yields trading around 4.305%

METALS: 

Gold edged higher as officials in Pakistan said a second round of US-Iran peace talks was expected in Islamabad. Spot gold climbed above $4,700 an ounce following
a report that the Iranian foreign minister is expected to arrive in Islamabad Friday night with a small team, citing officials familiar with the matter. US logistics, security team are already in the Pakistani capital for the negotiation process, the officials
said. Spot gold +0.3%, Silver +0.7%, Copper futures -1%. 

ENERGY:   

Oil prices reverse earlier gains as prospects for renewed US-Iran talks improved, with Pakistani officials saying Iran’s foreign minister will arrive in Islamabad
for negotiations later today. A US team is already on the ground, they added. WTI futures slipped below $95 and Brent falls briefly below $104 a barrel.  A US-sanctioned supertanker laden with Iranian oil appeared to be attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz,
with traffic through the waterway otherwise at a virtual standstill. Indonesia’s top diplomat said the country will not pursue tolls on ships passing through the Strait of Malacca, seeking to calm concerns after its finance minister raised the idea this week.
Oil output from Persian Gulf nations slumped by 14.5 million barrels a day this month, or 57% below pre-war levels, according to Goldman.  WTI -1.5%, Brent -0.8%, US Nat Gas -2.3%, RBOB -1.2%.

CURRENCIES: 

Currency market is relatively quiet and stable with modest moves amid geopolitical caution and positioning ahead of next week’s major central bank meetings. The euro
is holding gains but remains range-bound after recent volatility tied to ceasefire news. Yen is slightly higher, holding near recent levels despite ongoing BoJ meeting anticipation. Japan’s finance minister reiterated a verbal warning on intervention, saying
authorities could take “decisive” action against speculative moves in the foreign exchange market, a day after saying Japan had a “free hand” to intervene. Satsuki Katayama warned that officials are in close contact with their US counterparts as Tokyo remains
on high alert over speculative moves keeping the yen weak. US$ Index -0.2%, GBPUSD +0.25%, EURUSD +0.25%, USDJPY -0.2%, AUDUSD +0.2%, NZDUSD +0.35%, USDCHF -0.2%, USDCAD -0.15%, USDSEK -0.25%, USDNOK +0.05%.

Spot Bitcoin +0.6%, Spot Ethereum +0.2%. 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Altimmune (ALT) Raised to Neutral at Goldman; PT $2.50
• AMD (AMD) Raised to Buy at DA Davidson; PT $375
• First Quantum Minerals (FM CN) Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT C$37
• Gold Fields (GFI SJ) ADRs Raised to Buy at Canaccord; PT $57.25
• IBM (IBM) Raised to Buy at DZ Bank; PT $295
• Intel (INTC) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $95
• Raised to Outperform at Evercore ISI; PT $111
• Magna Intl (MG CN) Raised to Sector Outperform at Scotiabank; PT C$98.60
• Phillips 66 (PSX) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $174
• Polaris (PII) Raised to Outperform at Raymond James; PT $66
• Roche (ROP SW) ADRs Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $46
• Sandisk (SNDK) Raised to Buy at GF Securities; PT $1,277
• Southwest Air (LUV) Raised to Hold at HSBC; PT $36.10
• Sun Life Financial (SLF CN) Raised to Outperform at National Bank
• Tesla (TSLA) Raised to Hold at DZ Bank; PT $385
• Downgrades
• Alithya Group (ALYA CN) Cut to Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT C$1.50
• Bloomin’ Brands (BLMN) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT $6
• BRP Inc. (DOO CN) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
• Calumet (CLMT) Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT $36
• Comcast (CMCSA) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT $34
• DraftKings (DKNG) Cut to Neutral at MoffettNathanson LLC
• Flutter (FLUT) Cut to Neutral at MoffettNathanson LLC
• Freeport (FCX) Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $66
• Insulet (PODD) Cut to Neutral at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $220
• Iridium Communications (IRDM) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
• Kyndryl (KD) Cut to Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT $16.50
• Sportradar (SRAD) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $14
• TruBridge (TBRG) Cut to Neutral at Cantor
• Initiations
• Alphabet (GOOGL) Reinstated Outperform at Wedbush; PT $370
• Amazon (AMZN) Reinstated Outperform at Wedbush; PT $300
• Ascentage Pharma (6855 HK) ADRs Rated New Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $40
• Canadian Net Real Estate (NET-U CN) Rated New Neutral at CIBC; PT C$7
• Capital Clean Energy Car (CCEC) Rated New Hold at Jefferies; PT $20
• Claritev Corp (CTEV) Reinstated Overweight at Barclays; PT $28
• Damora Therapeutics (DMRA) Rated New Outperform at RBC; PT $40
• Dassault Systemes (DSY FP) ADRs Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT $27
• Dorian LPG (LPG) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $42
• First Tracks Biotherapeutics (TRAX) Rated New Outperform at Leerink
• Global Ship Lease (GSL) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $45
• Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $35
• Intl Seaways (INSW) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $90
• Meta (META) Reinstated Outperform at Wedbush; PT $900
• Navios Maritime Partners (NMM) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $85
• Neonc Technologies (NTHI) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $15
• Oracle (ORCL) Reinstated Outperform at Wedbush; PT $225
• Pampa Energia (PAMP AR) ADRs Reinstated Outperform at Itau BBA; PT $118
• PennyMac (PFSI) Rated New Equal-Weight at Stephens; PT $100
• Rocket Cos. (RKT) Rated New Overweight at Stephens; PT $22.50
• Scorpio Tankers (STNG) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $90
• Shake Shack (SHAK) Rated New Buy at Guggenheim; PT $120
• Star Bulk (SBLK) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $29
• TGS (TGSU2 AR) ADRs Rated New Outperform at Itau BBA; PT $38
• UWM Holdings (UWMC) Rated New Equal-Weight at Stephens; PT $4
• Walker & Dunlop (WD) Rated New Overweight at Stephens; PT $69

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke