Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

DATA/HEADLINES   9:00ET FHFA House Price Index MoM; 10:00ET JOLTS Job Openings,
Conf. Board Consumer Confidence; 1:00ET 7 Year Note Auction; 3:00ET Fed’s Barr speaks

TODAY’S HIGHLIGHTS:  

• 14 million Florida residents under hurricane and tropical storm warnings
• US NAMES 10 DRUGS SUBJECT TO MEDICARE PRICE NEGOTIATIONS

World stocks rallied, with sentiment supported after China signaled further measures to support its economy. China’s biggest state-owned banks are considering lowering
deposit rates again this week, as they ramp up efforts to boost the economy and protect margins. Economists trimmed their growth, prices and trade expectations for China, saying the outlook is showing scant signs of improving and predicting more monetary-policy
easing. Overall, global stocks are on track for their worst month in almost a year as policy makers remain determined to stifle inflation. Attention this week will be on a slew of economic data from around the globe.                                     

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures fluctuated as traders awaited a raft of economic figures over the next few days for clues on the outlook for global central bank policies. Traders will be monitoring
US consumer confidence data and JOLTS later this morning. Given the Federal Reserve’s emphasis on data dependence for its rate decisions, all economic reports are getting extra scrutiny. Other reports this week include US employment growth, the core PCE deflator
and August’s payrolls and wages data. The FDIC will propose new regulations today for midsize banks, stating lenders with at least $100 billion in assets should issue enough long-term debt to cover capital losses and bolster wind down plans.                          

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P -0.05%, Nasdaq -0.1%, Russell 2000 -0.1%, Dow -0.1%. E-mini S&P is fluctuating between its
50 day mvg avg
and
100dma.
 

In pre-market trading, Best Buy (BBY) climbed over 3% ahead of its second-quarter earnings report. Verizon Communications and AT&T rose 1.5% after Citigroup upgraded the stocks to buy,
saying it sees a more constructive investment case for large-cap telecommunications firms.  Jackson Financial (JXN) rises as much as 7.8% after S&P Dow Jones said the stock is set to join S&P SmallCap 600 index prior to the opening of trading on Sept. 1. Nio
(NIO) falls over 6% after the Chinese electric-vehicle maker reported bigger-than-expected losses in 2Q as competition heated up. Oracle Corp. (ORCL) shares are up 2.9% after UBS upgraded the infrastructure software company to buy from neutral.  

European stocks rose as China’s measures to bolster its economy and supportive UK inflation figures boosted investor risk appetite. The STOXX 600 index hit a two-week high, a day after
posting its biggest one-day jump in about a month. All sectors are in green, led by miners and telecom. Among individual names, NN Group NV jumped more than 10% after the financial-services company reported results that beat analysts’ expectations.  The FTSE
100 outperformed as it reopened after Monday’s holiday. UK shop price inflation dropped sharply again, to 6.9% in August, the lowest level in almost a year. Germany’s GfK consumer confidence index fell more than expected in September, while August French consumer
data was unchanged. Sweden’s GDP slumped 0.8% in the second quarter. Stoxx 600 +0.6%, DAX +0.3%, CAC +0.3%, FTSE 100 +1.4%. Basic Resources +1.6%, Telecom +1%, Insurance +1%.            

Shares in Asia were broadly higher as Chinese equities extended their gains following the country’s market-boosting measures including a pledge to speed up government spending. The Hang
Seng Index extended gains for a second day as UBS Global Wealth Management said Chinese stocks remain its most preferred allocation in Asia. China stocks outperformed, with the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rising more than 2%.  China is poised to cut
interest rates on outstanding home mortgages for the first time since the global financial crisis, as policymakers dig deeper into their toolkit to shore up growth. The move, following similar rate reductions in June and last September, would be the latest
step as authorities try to spur consumer spending, drive more funds into the stock market and alleviate pressure on lenders. Meanwhile, Japan’s unemployment rate unexpectedly rose for the first time in four months in July. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed
0.8%. Hang Seng Tech +2.6%, Hang Seng Index +~2%, Shanghai Composite +1.2%, ASX 200 +0.7%, Taiwan +0.7%, Kospi +0.3%, Vietnam +0.2%, Topix +0.15%.   

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasury futures are edging lower in early US session, paring small gains amassed during Asia session and London morning. Auction cycle concludes with $36b 7-year
note sale, following decent demand for Monday’s 2- and 5-year notes. US 10-year yield around 4.215% (+1bps), 2-year yield ~5.01% (down 5.5bps), has the 2s10s curve +6.5bps.

METALS: 
           

Gold edged lower as investors awaited US jobs data that may shift views on the Federal Reserve’s rate path. Among the string of economic data scheduled to be released
this week, focus would be on the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure — the PCE price index due on Thursday, as well as the non-farm payrolls report on Friday. Gold -0.2%, silver is flat.                

ENERGY:  

Oil futures edged higher as Idalia strengthened into a hurricane that is expected to make landfall in Florida within a day. The National Hurricane Center warned early
Tuesday that Idalia was expected to intensify into an “extremely dangerous major hurricane before landfall along the west coast or Big Bend region of Florida.” The storm is likely to cause power outages and could impact crude production on the eastern side
of the US Gulf Coast. Meanwhile, Chevron’s two major liquefied natural gas production facilities in Australia – that account for more than 5% of global LNG capacity – could face daily work stoppages of up to 10 hours next week after unions today threatened
labor action in a dispute over pay and conditions. WTI +0.7%, Brent +0.7%, US Nat Gas -0.5%, RBOB -0.3%.            

CURRENCIES:   

Currency markets are relatively quiet, with the US dollar slightly higher. The British pound edged higher initially after the slowest increase in grocery bills in
almost a year drove down inflation in shops in August, relieving some of the pressure on the Bank of England to keep raising interest rate hikes. British Retail Consortium data showed grocery prices climbed 11.5% in the 12 months to August, the lowest rate
since last year and down from 13.4% in July. The Japanese yen extended losses against the dollar to an intraday day low and continued to trade at the weakest level since November, keeping traders alert to the risk of intervention. The yen will weaken to levels
last seen more than 30 years ago if the Bank of Japan sticks to its dovish stance, according to forecasters at Goldman Sachs. US$ Index +0.1%, USDJPY +0.4%, GBPUSD -0.1%, AUDUSD -0.2%, EURUSD -0.1%, EURGBP is flat, NZDUSD -0.2%.   

Bitcoin -0.1%, Ethereum -0.3%.

TECHNICAL LEVELS: 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance

UPGRADES:

• 3M Co (MMM) raised to peerperform at Wolfe
• AT&T (T) raised to buy at Citi; PT $17
• First Bancshares/MS (FBMS) raised to buy at DA Davidson; PT $34
• Forward Air (FWRD) raised to buy at Jefferies; PT $85
• Hersha Hospitality (HT) raised to equal-weight at Barclays; PT $10
• NextEra Energy Partners (NEP) raised to outperform at Raymond James
• Oracle (ORCL) raised to buy at UBS
• Rockwell Automation (ROK) raised to equal-weight at Wells Fargo
• Snap (SNAP) raised to buy at President Capital Management; PT $14
• Verizon (VZ) raised to buy at Citi; PT $40

DOWNGRADES:

• Celanese (CE) cut to underweight at Piper Sandler; PT $112
• Emergent Bio (EBS) cut to hold at Benchmark
• Farfetch (FTCH) cut to equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $5
• Hersha Hospitality (HT) cut to hold at Stifel; PT $10
• RPT Realty (RPT) cut to sector weight at KeyBanc

INITIATIONS:

• BigBear.ai (BBAI) rated new buy at HC Wainwright; PT $4
• Decisive Dividend (DE CN) rated new outperform at Raymond James
• Flagship Communities REIT (MHC/U CN) rated new outperform at RBC; PT $21
• Navitas Semiconductor (NVTS) rated new equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
• QuinStreet (QNST) rated new neutral at B Riley; PT $10
• Xylem (XYL) reinstated neutral at Seaport Global Securities

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG