Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

DATA/HEADLINES   8:30ET CAD Unemployment; 9:45ET S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI; 10:00ET Construction Spending,
ISM Manufacturing, Fed’s Goolsbee speaks; 11:00ET Fed’s Powell speaks; 2:00ET Fed’s Powell, Cook speak

TODAY’S HIGHLIGHTS:  

• Israel Resumes War Against Hamas After Week-Long Gaza Truce
• Rocket sirens alert in Northern Israel
  
• China’s
  Caixin PMI moves back into expansion

World stocks edged up, having closed out their best month in three years yesterday, as a private measure of China’s manufacturing activity beat estimates. Economic
data from Asia played into the theme of slowing growth, as regional surveys of factory activity showed weakness in Japan and South Korea and mixed figures from China. Euro Area PMI Manufacturing readings continued to improve but remain in contraction territory.
Israel and Hamas resumed their war in the Gaza Strip after Israel said Hamas didn’t free all the kidnapped women it promised and added that Hamas violated the truce by firing missiles at Israel. Qatar said it hopes to broker another pause.                                       

EQUITIES: 
 

US equity futures are slightly lower as investor focus turns to a speech by Fed Chair Powell, who is likely to reiterate that it’s too soon to declare victory than
discuss rate cuts. A slew of Fed officials have this week indicated they are happy to keep rates on hold though they remain cautious on the timing of policy easing. November was the best month in over three decades for a classic stock and bond portfolio, as
both markets posted their best returns in years, according to a BofA Global Research report. A typical 60/40 portfolio would have returned 9.6% in November, the most since December 1991.                       

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P -0.15%, Nasdaq -0.25%, Russell 2000 -0.1%, Dow -0.02%.

Dell Technologies (DELL) shares fell 6% as revenues fell short due to a miss in PCs as well as below-expectation guidance for Q4. Elastic (ESTC) soars 18% after the application software
company reported second-quarter results that beat expectations and raised its full-year forecast.  Cryptocurrency-linked shares are rising as Bitcoin climbs to the highest levels since May 2022. Coinbase (COIN) +3.4%, Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA) +4.8%,
Riot Platforms (RIOT) +3.9%. Marvell Technology (MRVL) shares drop 4.9% after the chipmaker’s fourth-quarter revenue forecast fell short of expectations. Samsara (IOT) gains 16% after boosting its profit and revenue guidance for the full year. Tesla (TSLA)
dipped 1% as the EV maker kicked off deliveries of its much-awaited Cybertruck pickup, which RBC said was priced at the higher end of expectations. UiPath (PATH) shares jump 14% as analysts hike their targets on the robotic process automation software company
after its third-quarter results beat expectations. Ulta Beauty (ULTA) jumps 11% after the cosmetics retailer reported forecast-beating comparable sales growth. Altimmune jumped as much as 66% post-market after a mid-stage study of its experimental weight-loss
drug put it on par with Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy.

European stocks kick off December with gains, extending a rally that added $1.2 trillion to the Stoxx 600’s market value last month.  Data showed the broad-based downturn in euro zone
manufacturing activity eased slightly last month but the sector remained deeply rooted in contractionary territory. Final euro zone manufacturing PMI rose to 44.2 in November from October’s 43.1, above estimates of 43.8. Italy’s economy unexpectedly eked out
0.1% growth in the third quarter.  The Stoxx 600 index climbed as much as 0.7%, led by mining companies following an unexpected pickup in China’s Caixin manufacturing activity gauge.  The sector was also lifted by Anglo American and Antofagasta after upgrades
from UBS. Cosmetics firms L’Oreal SA and Beiersdorf AG edged higher after strong earnings from US peer Ulta Beauty. LVMH was among the decliners, after Morgan Stanley cut its rating on the luxury goods maker. Stoxx 600 +0.4%, DAX +0.7%, CAC +0.2%, FTSE 100
+0.6%. Basic Resources +3%, Travel +1.1%, Retail +1%. Food & Bev -0.35%.

Shares in Asia were mixed to lower, as sentiment remained cautious ahead of comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell later today. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 0.3%, with
technology shares the biggest drag, as some Fed officials stayed wary of interest rate cuts next year. Stocks in China also ended lower, though the benchmark CSI 300 Index pared most of its losses after a report that a state institution bought exchange-traded
funds in what was seen as the latest policy effort to bolster markets. China released a stronger Caixin Manufacturing PMI figure of 50.7 versus 49.8 expected, moving back into expansion. However, the decline in home sales accelerated in November despite more
funding support for developers. Meanwhile, the recovery in South Korean exports accelerated in November following a boost in chip demand.  Sensex +0.7%, Vietnam +0.7%, Singapore +0.5%, Philippines +0.3%, Topix +0.3%, Taiwan flat, ASX 200 -0.2%, CSI 300 -0.4%,
Kospi -1.2%, Hang Seng Index -1.25%, Hang Seng Tech -1.8%.                

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries fluctuated across the curve as traders await comments from Powell who may provide guidance on the path for interest rates. In Europe, Italian bonds outperform
following surprise drop in Italy’s manufacturing PMI for November. The US session includes manufacturing data and two scheduled appearances by Fed Chair Powell. Focus for the Powell events is whether he’ll back dovish comments earlier this week by Fed Governor
Waller, which spurred a rally across front-end of the Treasuries curve. Fed-dated OIS currently price in a 25bp rate cut in May and a total of 112bp cuts by the December FOMC meeting. 10-year yield around 4.315%, 2 year yield ~4.68%.  

METALS: 
   

Gold is reversing early overnight gains after fighting restarted in Gaza. Gold is on track for a third weekly gain amid fresh signs that a cooling US economy will
be supportive of the metal into next year. Investors are waiting for a public appearance by Fed Chair Powell, who will likely not mention rate cuts but traders will be on guard for signals of a dovish turn, which would give a fresh impulse for gold to move
higher. The metal is trading near a record high after rallying about 12% since early October. Spot gold is roughly flat, silver -0.6% at 8:00EST.                 

ENERGY:  

Oil prices edge lower after falling by over 2% on Thursday on perceptions that the voluntary oil output cuts agreed by OPEC+ producers were underwhelming. Goldman
said implementation won’t be easy. Brazil will join the cooperation charter of the OPEC+ oil alliance, a move that won’t bind it to making production cuts. WTI -0.3%, Brent -0.4%, US Nat Gas -1.4%, RBOB -0.3%.         

CURRENCIES:   

The dollar fluctuated as traders await Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments, while demand for exposure to volatility over the next week picked up. The Loonie is steady
near a two-month high as traders await Canada’s employment report and manufacturing PMI survey results for the month of November. The pound rallied, hitting its strongest level against the euro since September, with analysts citing this week’s lower-than-forecast
euro-area inflation figures and hawkish Bank of England comments as buoying sterling’s appeal. Cable is set for its seventh consecutive daily gain against the euro. US$ Index +0.05%, EURUSD -0.05%, GBPUSD +0.2%, EURGBP -0.2%, USDJPY -0.1%, , USDCAD -0.1%,
USDNOK -0.6%  

Bitcoin +1.6%, Ethereum +2%.  Bitcoin soared to its highest price so far this year.  

TECHNICAL LEVELS: 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• AspenTech (AZPN) Raised to Buy at Loop Capital; PT $213
• Chemours (CC) Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT $40
• Elastic (ESTC) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $115
• Fortrea (FTRE) Raised to Outperform at Evercore ISI
• Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Raised to Buy at UBS; PT $180
• Nutanix (NTNX) Raised to Buy at CFRA; PT $47
• Snowflake (SNOW) Raised to Buy at President Capital Management; PT $220
• Downgrades
• Alibaba (BABA) ADRs Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $90
• Almacenes Exito (EXITO CB) ADRs Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $7.04
• BioNTech (BNTX) ADRs Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT $99
• BRP Inc. (DOO CN) Cut to Hold at Canaccord; PT C$90
• ImmunoGen (IMGN) Cut to Neutral at Guggenheim; PT $31
• Cut to Market Perform at BMO; PT $31
• Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT $31
• Lemonade (LMND) Cut to Market Perform at Oppenheimer
• Ree Automotive (REE) Cut to Underweight at Cantor; PT $4
• Remitly (RELY) Cut to Peerperform at Wolfe
• Rover Group (ROVR) Cut to Hold at Canaccord; PT $11
• Spotify (SPOT) Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $190
• Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler
• Initiations
• Amdocs (DOX) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $105
• ARM Holdings PLC (ARM) ADRs Rated New Hold at CFRA
• Assai (ASAI3 BZ) ADRs Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $3.73
• Atlassian (TEAM) Rated New Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT $185
• Bank OZK (OZK) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $50
• BankUnited (BKU) Rated New Neutral at Citi; PT $28
• Boeing (BA) Reinstated Buy at Stifel; PT $265
• Cadence Bank (CADE) Rated New Neutral at Citi; PT $27
• Carrier Global (CARR) Rated New Outperform at CICC; PT $60.50
• Columbia Banking (COLB) Rated New Neutral at Citi; PT $23
• CSG Systems (CSGS) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $60
• Cullen/Frost (CFR) Rated New Sell at Citi; PT $94
• Digital Realty (DLR) Rated New Reduce at HSBC; PT $112
• East West Bancorp (EWBC) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $75
• Equinix (EQIX) Rated New Buy at HSBC; PT $875
• First Horizon (FHN) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $14
• Hancock Whitney (HWC) Rated New Neutral at Citi; PT $45
• Heico (HEI) Reinstated Buy at Stifel; PT $200
• Hexcel (HXL) Reinstated Buy at Stifel; PT $83
• Home BancShares (HOMB) Rated New Neutral at Citi; PT $23
• Immuneering (IMRX) Rated New Buy at Needham; PT $20
• Interactive Brokers (IBKR) Rated New Buy at Redburn; PT $100
• Itron (ITRI) Reinstated Hold at Canaccord; PT $68
• Lithium Americas (LAC CN) Rated New Buy at Jefferies
• LPL Financial (LPLA) Rated New Neutral at Redburn; PT $240
• Noble Corp. (NE) Resumed Neutral at Susquehanna; PT $52
• Novo (NOVOB DC) ADRs Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $120
• Old National (ONB) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $17
• Pinnacle Financial (PNFP) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $86
• Popular (BPOP) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $86
• PriceSmart (PSMT) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $82
• Prosperity Banc (PB) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $68
• Seacor Marine (SMHI) Rated New Buy at B Riley; PT $17
• Spirit Aero (SPR) Reinstated Hold at Stifel; PT $28
• Texas Capital (TCBI) Rated New Neutral at Citi; PT $57
• TransDigm (TDG) Rated New Hold at Stifel; PT $1,000
• Valley National (VLY) Rated New Neutral at Citi; PT $9.50
• Webster Financial (WBS) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $51
• Western Alliance (WAL) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $61
• Westinghouse Air Brake (WAB) Rated New Positive at Susquehanna
• Wintrust Financial (WTFC) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $101

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG