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    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 24 MAY: ASX finishes down 0.3pc, tech plunges 3pc | Monger Gold confirms copper-gold mineralisation at Providence prospect | Singapore April core inflation rises 3.3%, fastest in a decade |

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    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 23 MAY: ASX ekes out gain; Codan soars 14pc, Incitec tumbles | Archer Materials granted Australian patent for CQ quantum computing chip | Japan April consumer inflation beats BOJ target for 1st time in 7 years |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 23 MAY: ASX to open lower | Labor sweeps to power | EZZ works to catch e-commerce Southeast Asia growth wave |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 20 MAY: ASX closes 1.2pc higher, buoyed by tech | Nova Minerals unveils ‘significant’ lithium results at subsidiary Snow Lake’s project | Asian shares jump as China cuts key lending benchmark |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 20 MAY: ASX to slip as markets waver | Caravel confirms the copper keeps coming at Bindi West Limb |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 19 MAY: ASX closes 1.6pc lower; Wesfarmers, JB Hi-Fi tumble | Big-name investors, politicians embracing oil and gas | Indian shares fall nearly 2% on inflation jitters |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 19 MAY: ASX to plunge as inflation fears trigger Wall Street rout | Growth aplenty as Plenti delivers positive cash NPAT for FY22 |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 18 MAY: ASX rises 1pc; UK inflation surges to 40-year high of 9pc | Riversgold acquires key lithium ground in Pilbara | Shanghai lets financial firms resume work as COVID curb ease |

    Trending Tags

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    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 24 MAY: ASX finishes down 0.3pc, tech plunges 3pc | Monger Gold confirms copper-gold mineralisation at Providence prospect | Singapore April core inflation rises 3.3%, fastest in a decade |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 24 MAY: ASX to rise | Dow rebounds 600 points on banks | Blue Star nears approval to progress Galactica/Pegasus and Voyager helium wells |

    Chart of the Day: Pay Attention to Precedent

    Chart of the Day: Pay Attention to Precedent

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 23 MAY: ASX ekes out gain; Codan soars 14pc, Incitec tumbles | Archer Materials granted Australian patent for CQ quantum computing chip | Japan April consumer inflation beats BOJ target for 1st time in 7 years |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 23 MAY: ASX to open lower | Labor sweeps to power | EZZ works to catch e-commerce Southeast Asia growth wave |

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 20 MAY: ASX closes 1.2pc higher, buoyed by tech | Nova Minerals unveils ‘significant’ lithium results at subsidiary Snow Lake’s project | Asian shares jump as China cuts key lending benchmark |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 20 MAY: ASX to slip as markets waver | Caravel confirms the copper keeps coming at Bindi West Limb |

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    Danny’s View:  $1.9 Trillion In Options Expired On Friday And The Bulls Were Saved

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    Danny’s View: S&P 500 Finishes Lower After Choppy Session

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    Danny’s View:  Weak Retail Earnings Send The S&P And Nasdaq Down  Over 4%

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    Chart of the Day: Breadbasket At Risk

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    ICE Notice

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    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 24 MAY: ASX finishes down 0.3pc, tech plunges 3pc | Monger Gold confirms copper-gold mineralisation at Providence prospect | Singapore April core inflation rises 3.3%, fastest in a decade |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 24 MAY: ASX to rise | Dow rebounds 600 points on banks | Blue Star nears approval to progress Galactica/Pegasus and Voyager helium wells |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 23 MAY: ASX ekes out gain; Codan soars 14pc, Incitec tumbles | Archer Materials granted Australian patent for CQ quantum computing chip | Japan April consumer inflation beats BOJ target for 1st time in 7 years |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 23 MAY: ASX to open lower | Labor sweeps to power | EZZ works to catch e-commerce Southeast Asia growth wave |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 20 MAY: ASX closes 1.2pc higher, buoyed by tech | Nova Minerals unveils ‘significant’ lithium results at subsidiary Snow Lake’s project | Asian shares jump as China cuts key lending benchmark |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 20 MAY: ASX to slip as markets waver | Caravel confirms the copper keeps coming at Bindi West Limb |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 19 MAY: ASX closes 1.6pc lower; Wesfarmers, JB Hi-Fi tumble | Big-name investors, politicians embracing oil and gas | Indian shares fall nearly 2% on inflation jitters |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 19 MAY: ASX to plunge as inflation fears trigger Wall Street rout | Growth aplenty as Plenti delivers positive cash NPAT for FY22 |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 18 MAY: ASX rises 1pc; UK inflation surges to 40-year high of 9pc | Riversgold acquires key lithium ground in Pilbara | Shanghai lets financial firms resume work as COVID curb ease |

    Trending Tags

    • FEEDID-6
    • FEEDID-51
    • FEEDID-44
    • FEEDID-31
    • FEEDID-21
    • FEEDID-16
    • FEEDID-36
    • FEEDID-10
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  • Charts
    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 24 MAY: ASX finishes down 0.3pc, tech plunges 3pc | Monger Gold confirms copper-gold mineralisation at Providence prospect | Singapore April core inflation rises 3.3%, fastest in a decade |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 24 MAY: ASX to rise | Dow rebounds 600 points on banks | Blue Star nears approval to progress Galactica/Pegasus and Voyager helium wells |

    Chart of the Day: Pay Attention to Precedent

    Chart of the Day: Pay Attention to Precedent

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 23 MAY: ASX ekes out gain; Codan soars 14pc, Incitec tumbles | Archer Materials granted Australian patent for CQ quantum computing chip | Japan April consumer inflation beats BOJ target for 1st time in 7 years |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 23 MAY: ASX to open lower | Labor sweeps to power | EZZ works to catch e-commerce Southeast Asia growth wave |

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 20 MAY: ASX closes 1.2pc higher, buoyed by tech | Nova Minerals unveils ‘significant’ lithium results at subsidiary Snow Lake’s project | Asian shares jump as China cuts key lending benchmark |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 20 MAY: ASX to slip as markets waver | Caravel confirms the copper keeps coming at Bindi West Limb |

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    Chart of the Day: Pay Attention to Precedent

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    Danny’s View:  $1.9 Trillion In Options Expired On Friday And The Bulls Were Saved

    Danny’s View: $1.9 Trillion In Options Expired On Friday And The Bulls Were Saved

    Danny’s View:  S&P 500 Finishes Lower After Choppy Session

    Danny’s View: S&P 500 Finishes Lower After Choppy Session

    From the Desk of Wyckoff Trader

    From the Desk of Wyckoff Trader

    Danny’s View:  Weak Retail Earnings Send The S&P And Nasdaq Down  Over 4%

    Danny’s View: Weak Retail Earnings Send The S&P And Nasdaq Down Over 4%

    Danny’s View:  ES Rallies 240 Points From The Low. How Much Gas Is In The Tank?

    Danny’s View: ES Rallies 240 Points From The Low. How Much Gas Is In The Tank?

    Taylor 3 Day Cycle – Polaris Trading Group

    Taylor 3-Day Cycle – Polaris Trading Group

    Danny’s View:  S&P 500 Is Gapping Into Upside Target. Now What?

    Danny’s View: S&P 500 Is Gapping Into Upside Target. Now What?

    Chart of the Day: Breadbasket At Risk

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    Here’s Why You Need Mr. Top Step

    Here’s Why You Need Mr. Top Step

    Chart of the Day: AMZN Stock

    Chart of the Day: Etsy Stock Tumbles

    Chart of the Day: AMZN Stock

    Monthly Trading Time: The Good, The Bad and The Ugly

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    Chart of the Day: Can Apple Stock Hit Record Highs?

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    Chart of the Day: Can GOOGL Stock Stay Up?

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Home Commentary

Danny’s View: Everything Is In A Freefall

Danny Riley by Danny Riley
May 12, 2022
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Danny’s View:  Everything Is In A Freefall
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I figured after the CPI “flash crash,” the futures would rally. They did initially, but I didn’t expect the ES to trade down to 3923.75 and drop 120+ points from the day’s high. The train really has rolled off the tracks. 

I know people are starting to dabble into buying some beaten-down stocks, but I don’t think we are there yet. The PitBull told me today that at the top of his sheet — his stock list — he wrote, “Sell a rally, buy July puts.” 

Everyone keeps thinking the markets are going to rally — and they will eventually — but each bounce just ends up being another false start/dead-cat bounce. 

Our View

True story. 

A close friend of mine is down over $300,000 in his and his friend’s Bitcoin account. Recently, he was up over $600,000. Another friend said he’s “losing 2% a day.” 

It doesn’t matter if it’s hot stocks, options, or futures — everyone can buy and no one knows how to sell. When the PitBull talked to me about this Tuesday night, I told him he should include a chapter in his upcoming book about this problem. I think this is where the old ‘buy and hold’ meets the ‘short term’ trader that gets in and out. I happen to be one of those guys. I get out too fast, but I have learned that it’s a lot easier to make back a few small hits than it is to trade your way out of a big loss. 

It’s about capital preservation, so you get to come back and fight another day. 

Our Lean

How often do you see the stock market crashing, bonds tanking and gold selling off? You don’t. There is no flight to quality when everything is being liquidated. I think this is a watershed event and is accelerating to the downside and the ES is now closing in on my first downside target, 3800. 

So far, selling in May and walking away has paid off handsomely. The ES is down 5.5% and the NQ is down 8.1%. Like always, I cannot rule out a bounce. MrTopStep Trading rules say the ES tends to go sideways to higher after a big drop. 

That said, the last time I said this the ES rallied over 100 points and then reversed. I know this may be a long shot, but the 50% retracement from this morning’s low to yesterday’s high is at 3967. 

Daily Recap

The ES traded 4050 at 7:30 and went into the CPI report trading 4031.50 at 8:30. After the report, it promptly fell 84 points in 30 minutes, undercut Tuesday’s low, and bottomed at 3947. From there, it bounced 98 points — these ranges are crazy — and took out the 8:30 high. 

It topped at 4045 just after 10:40, then fell 45 points in the next 30 minutes. After the low, the ES rallied 42.50 points to 4042 at 11:30 — a lower high — and then the real selling began. 

The ES tanked 106 points down to a low of 3936 just before 2:00, bounced 50 points in 30 minutes, then fell 57 points to a new low going into the 3:50 cash imbalance reading. The MIM showed $550 million to sell as the ES sold off down to 3923.75 and traded 3929 on the 4:00 cash close. It finished lower by 66.5 points or 1.66%.

In the end, the ES is on track for its sixth weekly lower close — its first stretch of this magnitude since 2002. In terms of the ES’s overall tone,i t’s the same old same old — weak. In terms of the ES’s overall trade volume was tracking on the high side at 2.1 million contracts traded. 

  • Total Range: 127 points
  • H: 4050.50
  • L: 3923.75

Our View 

  • Total Range: 112.50 points
  • H: 4065.50
  • L: 3953

Technical Edge

  • NYSE Breadth: 68% Downside Volume
  • NASDAQ Breadth: 81% Downside Volume
  • VIX: ~$34

Two things surprised me yesterday: NYSE downside breadth was sub-70% and the VIX actually fell 1.3% in a session where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell 1.5% and 3.2%, respectively. 

Bulls actually had a pretty good setup for them yesterday, provided they could gain any upside momentum. There was a clear two-day low in many stocks and indices and if the market responded well to the CPI report, there was room to fly. 

The market tried early in the day to rally, but it was met with sellers at the pre-CPI high in the NQ and ES markets. Once that was resistance, sellers felt comfortable flushing the market lower. 

Game Plan — S&P, Nasdaq, Bitcoin, Individual Stocks

A gap-down today is better than a gap-up. Bonds continue to power higher and just as it did yesterday, that has my attention. 

Today is light → I basically just want to see the action. Do we get some sort of capitulation? Do we gap down and reverse higher? There is finally some fear in the market and it will be key to see how it responds.  

S&P 500

Circled above is the two-day low that failed on Wednesday. In Globex, the ES is trading into my downside target, the 161.8% extension from “D” leg to “C” leg at ~3900. 

We’re seeing “the generals” start to crack — names like AAPL, TSLA, etc. — and it’s probably indicative of margin calls and cash-raising attempts. 

If the market can hold this area and bounce, the ES needs to reclaim yesterday’s low at 3924. That opens the door to 3955, then 4000. 

On the downside, well. We’re kind of at the downside level in the short term! If we break the Globex low at ~3885 and fail to reclaim it, it could put 3845 to 3850 in play, which is the downside extension from yesterday’s range. 3775 could be a “bigger picture” level to watch.

SPY

If we are looking at just the smaller timeframe extension near $390, the SPY is trading that in the pre-market. If we bounce, see how it handles yesterday’s low at ~$392. 

Above that could open the door up to $397, then $400. 

On the downside, the 161.8% downside extension from the larger range is down near $380 (the same extension as the 3775 level for the ES). It would take about a 4% decline from Wednesday’s low to achieve it. 

ZB — Bonds

Bonds are really interesting right here. We haven’t talked about them in a few days, but have repeatedly flagged the 200-month moving average and the 2018 low as two areas to take notice. 

The bonds — whether TLT, ZB, etc. — have been really strong lately. They’re rallying again in the pre-market now. This will take pressure off yields, which should take pressure off tech, although that hasn’t been the case, yet. 

We’re back above the April low now and if we close here, the ZB is back above the 10-day and 21-day moving averages. That could give us some breathing room, potentially into the 146 to 147 range before we hit some significant areas. 

Keep this on your radar. A break below the April low does not bode well for longs. 

Go-To Watchlist

*Feel free to build your own trades off these relative strength leaders*

Numbered are the ones I’m watching most closely. Bold are the trades with recent updates.

  1. AR — Was looking for $35 on First Target. Hit $34.90. Anything above $34 was good for a trim. → Now B/E stop-loss on this one. 

Relative strength leaders (List is cleaned up and shorter!) → 

  • AR 
  • WMT
  • PEP
  • KO
  • MCK
  • BMY 
  • JNJ
  • DLTR
  • DOW 

Economic Calendar

As we all know, there’s no crystal ball when it comes to trading stocks, options, or futures. But the Market Imbalance Meter may be as close as it comes. Knowing how the “Big Money” is placing its bets can give our trading room a big wave to ride — or a warning sign to stay out of the water. Come check it out now, risk-free for 30 days.

Disclaimer: Charts and analyses are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.
Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!
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