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    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 24 JUNE: ASX rises 0.8pc as battered tech, lithium shares rebound | ReNu Energy and Countrywide Renewable Hydrogen kick off a green hydrogen electrolysis production project in Southern Tasmania | Singapore May manufacturing output up 13.8% y/y amid chip shortage |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

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    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 23 JUNE: REITs lift ASX 0.3pc, energy, mining, lithium stocks tumble | Netccentric secures e-commerce influencer deal with TikTok | Asia shares struggle, oil tumbles |

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    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 23 JUNE: ASX to rise | US stocks end lower, snapping rally | Sparc to get industry pulling its coat on, with commercial graphene right around the corner |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 22 JUNE: ASX drops 0.2pc; UK inflation hits 40-year high of 9.1pc | Besra Gold’s drilling at Jugan continues to impress | Indian shares drop over 1% after pullback rally fizzles |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 22 JUNE: ASX to rise | Wall St rallies broadly, Tesla surges | Indiana raises $1.84m, secures grant to drive Central Gawler exploration |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 21 JUNE: ASX bounces 1.4pc, ends 7-day losing streak | Resource Base begins step-out drilling after ‘significant’ REE discovery | China Evergrande sticks to restructuring plan target of before end-July |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 21 JUNE: ASX to rise | European stocks rebound, bitcoin bounce fades | Arizona Lithium gears up for EV supply chain support with 5 year deal for world class lithium lab |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

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    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 23 JUNE: ASX to rise | US stocks end lower, snapping rally | Sparc to get industry pulling its coat on, with commercial graphene right around the corner |

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

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    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 22 JUNE: ASX drops 0.2pc; UK inflation hits 40-year high of 9.1pc | Besra Gold’s drilling at Jugan continues to impress | Indian shares drop over 1% after pullback rally fizzles |

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    CME Loses Key Battle in Potentially Costly Trader Lawsuit

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    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 24 JUNE: ASX rises 0.8pc as battered tech, lithium shares rebound | ReNu Energy and Countrywide Renewable Hydrogen kick off a green hydrogen electrolysis production project in Southern Tasmania | Singapore May manufacturing output up 13.8% y/y amid chip shortage |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 24 JUNE: ASX to slip | Wall St rallies late, copper drops | Medlab teams up with Malaysian consumer health giant to crack open an eager Asian market |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 23 JUNE: REITs lift ASX 0.3pc, energy, mining, lithium stocks tumble | Netccentric secures e-commerce influencer deal with TikTok | Asia shares struggle, oil tumbles |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 23 JUNE: ASX to rise | US stocks end lower, snapping rally | Sparc to get industry pulling its coat on, with commercial graphene right around the corner |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 22 JUNE: ASX drops 0.2pc; UK inflation hits 40-year high of 9.1pc | Besra Gold’s drilling at Jugan continues to impress | Indian shares drop over 1% after pullback rally fizzles |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 22 JUNE: ASX to rise | Wall St rallies broadly, Tesla surges | Indiana raises $1.84m, secures grant to drive Central Gawler exploration |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 21 JUNE: ASX bounces 1.4pc, ends 7-day losing streak | Resource Base begins step-out drilling after ‘significant’ REE discovery | China Evergrande sticks to restructuring plan target of before end-July |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 21 JUNE: ASX to rise | European stocks rebound, bitcoin bounce fades | Arizona Lithium gears up for EV supply chain support with 5 year deal for world class lithium lab |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 20 JUNE: ASX drops 0.6pc as miners plunge | Culpeo Minerals discovers new copper zone at Lana Corina project | BOJ maintains ultra-low rates, warns against sharp yen falls |

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  • Charts
    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 24 JUNE: ASX rises 0.8pc as battered tech, lithium shares rebound | ReNu Energy and Countrywide Renewable Hydrogen kick off a green hydrogen electrolysis production project in Southern Tasmania | Singapore May manufacturing output up 13.8% y/y amid chip shortage |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 24 JUNE: ASX to slip | Wall St rallies late, copper drops | Medlab teams up with Malaysian consumer health giant to crack open an eager Asian market |

    Jack Broz Webinar banner

    Jason Sen: undefined

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 23 JUNE: REITs lift ASX 0.3pc, energy, mining, lithium stocks tumble | Netccentric secures e-commerce influencer deal with TikTok | Asia shares struggle, oil tumbles |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 23 JUNE: ASX to rise | US stocks end lower, snapping rally | Sparc to get industry pulling its coat on, with commercial graphene right around the corner |

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 22 JUNE: ASX drops 0.2pc; UK inflation hits 40-year high of 9.1pc | Besra Gold’s drilling at Jugan continues to impress | Indian shares drop over 1% after pullback rally fizzles |

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    Danny’s View:  S&P 500 – Summer Volume Comes Early

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    Taylor 3 Day Cycle – Polaris Trading Group

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    Danny’s View:  Navigating the Bounce in a Holiday-Shortened Week

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    Danny’s View:  Bulls Still Have Control But Could Lose It Any Minute

    Danny’s View: Quad Witch Round 2. Can Bulls Recoup Some of This Week’s Losses?

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    Chart of the Day: AMZN Stock

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Danny’s View: S&P 500 – Vicious Tape Sending Investors Packing

Danny Riley by Danny Riley
May 11, 2022
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Please keep a lookout for this week’s video. We hit a snare with the rendering, so it’s likely it will not be ready before the newsletter & it will come in a separate post! 

Our View 

Economists expected that the consumer price index (CPI) rose 8.1% in April from the same month a year ago, decelerating from an 8.5% annual rate in March. It rose 8.3% instead. I think the story here is, it’s a one-month blip that is not going to last! CL is trading  $104 as of this morning.

Our Lean

With all the margin calls, liquidation, and rolling options positions lower, I think it’s possible to see higher prices. 

If the ES gaps up, my plan is to sell the open or the first rally above and buy the pullbacks. While I think lower prices as part of the “bigger picture,” I also see support in the ES at the 3950 to 3975 area. 

I continue to hear people say they think the ES is nearing a low and I am in total disagreement with that idea. I have been calling for 3800 and lower and I’m not changing my view at this time. 

I think this summer is going to be one for the history books.

Daily Recap

The ES opened Tuesday’s regular session at 4050, rallied up to 4065.50 in the opening minutes, and then dropped down to 4023.25 at 9:51. Then it rallied 32 handles to a lower high at 4055 at 10:08 before the sellers took over. For the next two hours, they dominated the tape, driving the ES lower by 102 points before it bottomed at 3953 just after 12:30. 

Then it was the bulls’ turn, as they rallied the ES 84 points off the low as it climbed as high as 4037 at 2:00. After a quick 34-handle pullback and a 28-point bounce, the ES fell another 47 points down to 3985 and went into the 3:50 cash imbalance at 3995. 

The MIM showed $2.1 billion for sale, traded down to 3987.25, rallied up to 4001, and traded 3995 on the 4:00 cash close. It settled at 3991.50 on the 5:00 futures close, up 9.25 points or 0.23% on the day. 

In the end, the markets continued the pattern of failed rallies. In terms of the ES’s overall tone, it was weak. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, volume was high at 2.2 million contracts traded. 

  • Total Range: 112.50 points
  • H: 4065.50
  • L: 3953

Technical Edge

  • NYSE Breadth: 58% Downside Volume
  • NASDAQ Breadth: 52% Upside Volume
  • VIX: ~$32

In back-to-back sessions, it’s clear the market is trying to find its footing. The key word here is “Trying.” If it can do so, then we could be looking at a decent dead-cat bounce here. 

The CPI report just came in a little hot and higher than expected. That could kill this bounce before it even gets going. But if we rally on bad news, that could have meaningful implications in the near term. 

Now we find out how meaningful that two-day low really is. 

Bonds are rallying again, meaning yields are in decline, while the VIX is coming in. The semi stocks are trying to rally and Bitcoin has found some support (at least in the short term). 

Further, we have a number of two-day lows to measure against in many assets, including the SMH, SPY, QQQ, NVDA, ARKK, etc.

I am not a full-on bull by any means, but we have to be aware of the two-way flow and bear market rallies. 

Game Plan — S&P, Nasdaq, Bitcoin, Individual Stocks

Today’s video hit a snag on the rendering but goes over the ES, SPY, NQ, QQQ, TLT, NVDA, SMH, ABBV, ARKK, AAPL and VIX. 

So there’s a lot in there to unpack, but it’s on its way soon!

S&P 500

Clearing last week’s low at 4056 and yesterday’s high at 4065.50 could open the door up to the 4100 to 4130 area, a nice 30 to 60 point trade if the bulls can take momentum. 

The risk range is wider on the futures vs. SPY or QQQ because of the Globex session, but if traders go by regular-hours trading and we open near this zone (4056 to 4065) and rotate through it, then we could have a low-risk long situation on our hands. 

Granted, that’s a lot of “ifs” and “could,” but we have to be aware of the potential. 

(covered in video)

SPY

Two-times daily-up over $406.10 could open the door to the $410 to $413 area. The bulls will need to get their dead-cat bounce going, but this one has potential. 

If we gap-up — trading $403.50 in the premarket now — we could have a very solid risk/reward with this type of setup. 

(covered in video)

QQQ

Inside day as QQQ struggled with last week’s low. A daily-up rotation over $305.76 opens the door to $310, then $313 and $317. 

I know we’re in a downtrend, but we have a clear two-day low to watch and if we gap up into the $305 area, then we could have a very low-risk daily-up rotation play on our hands. 

(covered in video)

Bitcoin

Again, Bitcoin is trying to build some steam and rally here. If it can, look for $33K first, then potentially $37K to $37.5K. 

AR

Nice bounce from the 50-day, as flagged yesterday. Let’s see if we can get a rebound into the $35 area — the 10-day and 21-day moving averages. 

I would go with a break-even stop or a stop against this week’s low to keep our risk low. 

Go-To Watchlist

*Feel free to build your own trades off these relative strength leaders*

Numbered are the ones I’m watching most closely. Bold are the trades with recent updates.

  1. DLTR — B/E stop hit (for me)
  2. AR — First target is $35, stop at Tuesday’s LOD (or at entry, if our basis is low enough). 

Relative strength leaders (List is cleaned up and shorter!) → 

  • AR 
  • WMT
  • PEP
  • KO
  • MCK
  • BMY 
  • JNJ
  • DLTR
  • DOW 

Economic Calendar

CPI just came in a little hot.

As we all know, there’s no crystal ball when it comes to trading stocks, options, or futures. But the Market Imbalance Meter may be as close as it comes. Knowing how the “Big Money” is placing its bets can give our trading room a big wave to ride — or a warning sign to stay out of the water. Come check it out now, risk-free for 30 days.

Disclaimer: Charts and analyses are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.
Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!
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