Our Lean

I am usually more specific about the direction of the ES, but it’s really all over the place. In yesterday’s lean, I pointed out the MrTopStep rule that the ES tends to go sideways to down after a big up day (last Friday) and tends to go sideways to up after a big down day (yesterday).

Our lean: I think we can see a bounce and can’t rule out trading a gap in either direction, but I think any larger rally could fail despite all the back and fill.

Key Resistance Levels

6931.65 — Strong overhead resistance / recent swing high
6924.39 — High cluster resistance
6917.68 / 6917.40 — Tight resistance zone (failed breakout area)
6914.71 — Minor resistance
6910.25 — Psychological / prior high pivot
6901.24 — Key resistance flip (recent consolidation high)
6897.25 / 6892.11 — Dense overhead supply cluster
6889.38 / 6888.77 / 6887.75 — Minor resistance / pivot area

Key Support Levels

6883.56 / 6880.22 — Moderate support / prior defense
6871.50 — Support cluster
6864.00 / 6863.00 / 6862.85 — High-confluence support (tight levels, recent battleground)
6853.00 / 6851.50 / 6851.11 — Very strong support zone (multiple touches / potential floor)
6845.47 — Lower support extension
6834.23 — Deeper support
6822.78 / 6812.75 — Pullback support targets
6810.89 / 6806.65 / 6804.79 / 6801.76 — Minor to moderate support cluster
6774.00 — Major deeper support
6751.50 — Extended / major downside target (if breakdown continues)

Quick Notes on Usage

Overhead resistance starts heavy at 6900–6931 (needs a strong catalyst to reclaim for upside).

Current focus around 6850–6863 (pivotal; hold for bounce potential toward 6880–6900; break lower accelerates to 6810–6774).

Guest Posts: @Manny_Trends

SPX closed at 6837, and that close does two important things heading into today.

First, it confirms acceptance below 6875, breaking the lower end of the recent 6875–6905 distribution range.

Second, it closes below 6860, which negates the S&P daily-cycle bounce.

That shifts the framework from a short-term bounce narrative into a more defensive, post-breakdown posture.

Market Structure and Volatility Outlook

Volatility should remain elevated this week, and recent price action continues to fit a broader distribution environment.

The core distribution range sits at 6875–6905, with an upper defense / squeeze band at 6915–6925.

If SPX trades inside 6875–6905, it suggests dealers are suppressing volatility and focusing on premium collection. That type of environment often produces two-way trade, chop, and failed moves.

At today’s open, ES pushed to 6916, tagging the 6915–6925 squeeze / defense zone and confirming that area as active. The market has already shown where sellers may defend upside attempts — unless price can reclaim and hold above that band.

A sustained break above 6915–6925, followed by a break of 6950, would be required to reopen a stronger upside continuation scenario.

With SPX closing at 6837, price is currently below the core distribution zone. The focus now shifts to whether the market can reclaim lost structure or continue lower.

Distribution Flow Map

Inside 6875–6905
Dealers likely suppress volatility and collect premium. Expect chop and failed breakouts.

6915–6925
Active squeeze / defense zone. ES traded to 6916 at the open, confirming this as a likely sell / defense area unless accepted above it.

Break and hold above 6915–6925
Improves odds of a repair move, with 6950 as the next key upside level.

Break above 6950
Higher prints come back into play.

Break below 6875
Eyes move to 6825, then 6800.

6800
Major put wall. If 6800 breaks, volatility can spike and the selloff can accelerate.

Cycle and Signal Context

The cycle notes now carry a defensive tilt:

S&P: A close below 6860 negates the bounce. SPX closed 6837.
Nasdaq: A close below 24,750 cancels the bounce. NDX closed 24,708.
Dow Jones: A close below 49,200 cancels the bounce. DJI closed 48,804.

Broader cycle backdrop:
Weekly cycles remain down.
Downside risk remains in play.
The longer-term posture continues to favor defense over aggression.

VIX Context

The VIX weekly cycle is up.

A prior VIX buy signal was canceled below 19.30. VIX closed 21.01.

A close above 19.90 would trigger a new VIX buy signal and increase volatility risk. With VIX already at 21.01, that volatility trigger is active.

This threshold matters if the market begins leaning on lower support and volatility expands further.

What I’m Watching Today

Reclaim 6875 and build a base
First sign of repair. Buyers need acceptance back into the broken range.

Reject 6875
Keeps downside continuation pressure in control.

Reclaim 6905
Opens the door back into the upper distribution / squeeze zone.

6915–6925
Confirmed defense zone after ES tagged 6916 at the open. Watch for seller response unless price is accepted above it.

Break and hold above 6915–6925
Improves odds of a push toward 6950.

Break 6950
Stronger upside continuation and higher prints back in play.

Below 6875
Eyes on 6825, then 6800.

6800
Major downside decision point.

Break 6800
Increases odds of volatility expansion and accelerated downside.

Tactical Read

The market has broken structure and invalidated the S&P daily-cycle bounce threshold. In this type of tape, traders often get trapped trying to force reversals too early.

Inside 6875–6905, expect more dealer-driven volatility suppression and premium collection behavior. The market has already tested the 6915–6925 squeeze / defense band, giving us a confirmed upper response level.

Outside these zones, focus on confirmation and follow-through.

The better approach is tactical patience:
Reclaim and hold for repair.
Failed reclaims for continuation.

Execution Reminder

Trade the engagement, not the hope.

No base, no trade.

Read the open. Respect the risk. Let the market confirm first.

You can follow Manny at @manny_trends and at @pitbulltraders

ES & NQ Levels (Premium only)

ES – H26 Levels

The bull/bear line for the ES is at 6863.50. This is the key pivot for today’s trade. Holding above this level keeps the tone constructive and favors rotation higher. Acceptance below it shifts control back to the sellers.

ES is currently trading around 6866.50 in the Globex session, sitting just above the bull/bear line. As long as price holds above 6863.50, upside rotation toward 6918.50, our upper intraday range target, is in play. A sustained break above 6918.50 opens the door to 6950.25 and then 6970.25. If momentum expands, a stretch toward 7028.00 cannot be ruled out.

If price loses 6863.50 and begins to hold below it, look for downside pressure toward 6832.75. Below that, 6808.50 is the lower intraday range target. A clean break of 6808.50 exposes 6756.75 as the next major support. Failure there would signal a broader shift in structure and likely bring in heavier selling.

Resistance levels for today are 6918.50, 6950.25, and 6970.25. Support levels are 6863.50, 6832.75, 6808.50, and 6756.75.

Overall, bias remains neutral-to-bullish above 6863.50 and bearish below it. Let price acceptance around this pivot dictate positioning, and be cautious of failed breaks at either intraday range target.

NQ – H26 – Levels

The bull/bear line for the NQ is at 24,803.25. This is the key pivot for today’s trade. Holding above this level keeps short-term momentum constructive, while acceptance back below it shifts control to sellers.

NQ is currently trading around 24,872.00, positioning price above the bull/bear line and attempting to stabilize after the recent sharp selloff. As long as 24,803.25 holds on pullbacks, buyers can press for a move into 25,072.75, which is our upper range target for the session.

Above 25,072.75, resistance comes in at 25,326.25. A sustained push through that level would open the door for a broader recovery phase and squeeze higher into prior breakdown areas.

On the downside, immediate support sits at 24,668.00. A break and hold below 24,803.25 increases the probability of rotation into 24,533.75, our lower range target. If sellers gain acceptance below 24,533.75, the next key supports come in at 24,440.00 and then 24,280.00. A move into that lower zone would signal renewed downside momentum and potential trend continuation.

Overall, the tone is neutral to slightly constructive above 24,803.25, but the market remains fragile after the recent volatility. Trade location versus 24,803.25 will dictate intraday bias. Hold above it and look for rotations higher; lose it and expect pressure back toward the mid-24,500s and potentially lower.

Polaris Trading Group Summary – Monday, February 23, 2026

“Blizzard Monday” – Discipline Through Disruption

The day began with Manny setting the tone: new day, fresh start — trade plan posted, same consistent process. Despite a literal blizzard and significant tech challenges (screenshare/audio issues, internet latency, power surges, and extreme weather conditions), the room stayed focused and grounded in the Daily Trade Strategy (DTS).

Environment: Adversity Early

Despite this, charts were restored, communication continued via chat, and execution remained centered on structure and levels — a strong lesson in professionalism under pressure.

Market Structure & Execution

Early Action – Targets Hit Both Ways

David noted early that both upside and downside targets from the DTS Briefing were fulfilled, confirming solid pre-market planning and balanced expectations for Cycle Day 2.

Cycle Day 2 Framework

Key pivot: 6905 ±5

Early push to 6925 was rejected — price reverted to VWAP, aligning with expected Cycle Day 2 MATD rhythm (early directional push, then reversion/rotation).

Trades & Highlights

Bright Spot of the Day

Lesson: Not every instrument delivers. Staying diversified but selective allowed NQ to shine while ES and CL were controlled losses.

Key Rotational Levels in Play

D-Level Money Box – Textbook Execution

One of the most important plays of the day:

This was a high-quality instructional sequence:

Excellent example of structure-based trading rather than emotional reaction.

Lessons Reinforced

1. Cycle Day Rhythms Matter

Early directional push → rejection → rotational movement.
Understanding MATD rhythm kept traders from chasing highs.

2. Acceptance Above/Below Key Levels

6905 ±5 acted as the decision zone. Clean framework = reduced emotional trading.

3. Contained Losses = Professional Trading

Open range losses in ES & CL were handled mechanically.
The NQ winner offset and reinforced trust in the system.

4. D-Level Playbook Expansion

The D-Level reversal and first pullback setup was a standout educational moment. Members were encouraged to formally add this to their playbook.

5. Control What You Can

Even with:

The process held steady. That’s professional consistency.