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Down But Not Out
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Our View
ES
Globex High 6508.75
Globex Low 6486.75
Globex Close 6496.75
Day Session Open 6496.75
Day Session High 6498
3:50 Imbalance $ 1.3B
3:50 Print 6476.50
4:00 Cash Close 6471.50, down 17.25 (0.27%) from y’day close
5:00 Close 6467.25, down 19 pts or -0.29%
Volume: LOW 1.059 Mil
After a lot of little ups and downs, the ES closed down 0.29% and the NQ closed down 0.53%. Thursday’s jump in the PPI inflation report, followed by a weaker-than-expected U.S. consumer sentiment report, added additional downward pressure to the index markets.
The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 58.6 in August from 61.7 last month, driven by concerns over inflation. That added to the market’s weakness as the yield on the 10-year note rose to 4.27%, while the dollar weakened against the Japanese yen. This came after Bessent said the Bank of Japan was falling behind in tackling inflation. Meanwhile, the euro has rallied 13% against the dollar this year, trading at about $1.17 on Friday.
I think there is still a lot to be concerned about when it comes to interest rates, inflation, and job growth. I’ll say it again: I’m not an economist—I barely got out of high school—and yes, some of my views may not reflect yours. But Trump has been pushing his tariffs since 1987 and has said many times that “tariffs” is his favorite word in the dictionary. He’s clearly proved that, and my concern is how the markets will react when the Fed lowers rates in September—especially if inflation gauges keep rising.
Do I want lower rates? Yes.
Do I think there are risks to it? Yes, I do.
I’ll be honest, I think I’ve done a good job keeping up with some of the big shifts, but I’m just not sure how the stock market and the economy can keep up. What happens if Trump’s plan fails and the U.S. falls into a real recession?
Over the weekend, China began raising concerns about high U.S. debt, questioning whether U.S. economic growth can keep pace with rising debt caused by budget and trade imbalances. They also suggested that efforts to narrow the trade deficit could weaken the U.S. dollar and increase volatility in the Treasury market.
“We’re in a severe recession…”
David Rosenberg interview: The Market article
YouTube video
David Rosenberg worked in the U.S. for seven years as Chief North American Economist at Merrill Lynch in New York from 2002 to 2009. He then returned to Canada, joining Gluskin Sheff + Associates as Chief Economist and Strategist. He called the 2008 credit crisis and has been critical of the Fed—and of some of Trump’s policies. When I watched the video, there was only one word that came to mind: unsustainable.
There are only eight economic releases this week. The biggest highlight will be the Minutes from the July FOMC meeting and the closely watched Jackson Hole Symposium, where central bankers from around the world will gather to discuss economic policy.
We also have earnings from: Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT), Home Depot (HD), Lowe’s (LOW), Applied Materials (AMAT), Circle (CRCL), Lenovo (0992.HK), AMC (AMC), Cava (CAVA), Cisco (CSCO), CoreWeave (CRWV), Deere (DE), On (ONON), Oklo (OKLO), BJ’s Wholesale (BJ), TJX Companies (TJX), Ross Stores (ROST), Estée Lauder (EL), Intuit (INTU), Zoom Communications (ZM), Workday (WDAY), Xpeng (XPEV), Medtronic (MDT), La-Z-Boy (LZB), Toll Brothers (TOL), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), and Blink Charging (BLNK).
As of August 8, over 90% of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings, with analysts expecting an 11.8% jump in earnings per share during the second quarter.
Our Lean
The rule of thumb is that once the kids go back to school, more people return to trading—and this week could put that to the test. Wednesday’s the big day with the July Fed minutes and Jackson Hole symposium on deck.
According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, the week after July expiration is prone to swings. The Dow has been up 16 of the last 22 occasions. Some of the notable big moves: +3.2% in 2006, -4.2% in 2007, +4% in 2009, +3.2% in 2010, and -2.9% in 2015.
And some very crazy month-end stats:
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August’s third-to-last trading day (Wednesday) has been up 19 years in a row, from 2003 to 2021, down 0.5% in 2022, up 1.5% in 2023, and down 0.3% in 2024.
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Thursday, August 28 (second-to-last trading day of August) has been down 18 of the last 27 years
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FRYday, the last trading day of August, has seen the S&P up 13 of the last 24 years, but down 6 of the last 9
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September is the only losing month of the year on average and over the last 20 years, the S&P has lost over 1,000 points
Our lean: Can we go down? Sure. The ES and NQ didn’t act that great Friday—but they didn’t act that bad either. The 6440–6460 area is holding like a brick wall, and with volume so low, I think we could see some kind of bounce. But I can’t rule out some weakness this week. I also think if we get some knee-jerk 10- to 20-point sell-offs, you can buy into the drops.
MiM and Daily Recap
The overnight Globex session for Friday’s trade opened at 6489.25 and initially pushed higher, reaching an early swing high at 6494.75 at 19:40. A pullback brought ES to 6487.50 at 20:10 before buyers regained control, steadily pressing higher into the late night. The climb peaked at 6508.75 by 02:50, marking the session high. From there, a sequence of lower highs and lower lows took shape: 6507.50 at 04:00 and then a sharp drop to 6490.00 by 06:00. A modest rebound topped at 6502.25 at 07:20 before rolling over again to 6492.00 at 08:30 after the economic releases. The final Globex push higher stalled at 6500.50 by 09:00 before sliding into the regular session open. Overall, Globex closed at 6496.75, up 7.50 handles or +0.12% from the open.
The regular cash session opened at 6496.75 and quickly dropped to 6468.25 by 10:00, setting an early morning low. A rebound attempt carried ES to 6483.25 at 10:15, but sellers reasserted themselves, driving a deeper low of 6461.50 by 11:40. That level marked the day’s low. Buyers responded with a midday recovery, peaking at 6485.50 at 14:00, a nice 24-point move, though momentum failed to carry higher. The afternoon trade was choppy, with a dip to 6469.75 at 15:05, a lower high at 6478.25 by 15:50 into the MIM, and then renewed selling into 6464.00 at 16:00. The cash close printed at 6471.50, down 25.25 handles or -0.39% on the day. Including the cleanup session, ES settled at 6467.25, off 22.00 points or -0.34% from Thursday’s close.
The day’s tape was defined by repeated lower highs and weak follow-through on rallies. Despite the overnight push to fresh highs, regular session trade quickly gave way to selling pressure that persisted through the afternoon.
The overall sentiment leaned bearish as the cash session erased the Globex gains and pushed to new lows intraday. Sellers dominated the early morning and late afternoon, with buyers unable to sustain recoveries beyond brief mid-session rallies. Volume was light, with 856,877 contracts trading in the regular session and total full session volume barely exceeding 1 million.
The Market-on-Close imbalance showed a strong sell-side skew. At 15:51, the NYSE imbalance registered -$1.277B, with 58.9% of notional flow on the sell side and a symbol imbalance of -52.1%. While not extreme by the ±66% threshold, the persistent negative skew into the bell confirmed bearish tone and contributed to pressure into the closing print.
In summary, ES futures finished at 6467.25, down 17.25 handles or -0.27% from the prior cash close. The structure of lower highs and persistent late-day selling leaves the market in a vulnerable posture heading into the next session, with key support eyed near the 6460 area and resistance overhead at 6485–6500.
Technical Edge
Fair Values for August 18, 2025:
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SP: 18.89
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NQ: 80.28
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Dow: 64.92
Daily Breadth Data 📊
For Friday, August 15
• NYSE Breadth: 46% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 52% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 52% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 42% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 42% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 42% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 65 / 20
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 170 / 94
• NYSE TRIN: 0.70
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.65
Weekly Breadth Data 📈
For Week Ending August 15
• NYSE Breadth: 55% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 63% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 60% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 65% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 65% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 65% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 267 / 94
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 571 / 303
• NYSE TRIN: 1.44
• Nasdaq TRIN: 1.09
Today’s BTS Levels:
ES
The bull/bear line for the ES is at 6477. This is the pivot level that determines market sentiment. Trading below this line keeps the bias bearish, while a move back above it would shift momentum towards the bulls.
Currently, ES is trading near 6465.50, just below the bull/bear line, suggesting continued downside pressure in the near term. If weakness persists, the first support comes in at 6461.50. Below this, the lower intraday range target sits at 6441.25. A break under 6441.25 could open the door for deeper downside, with 6407.50 as the next key support level.
On the upside, resistance is seen at 6489.25, then at 6508.75. The upper intraday range target stands at 6512.75, which would be the objective for bulls if they can reclaim 6477 and hold strength above it. A stronger breakout beyond 6512.75 could extend into 6546.25.
Overall, the market remains under pressure while below 6477. Bulls need to regain this line and sustain momentum above 6489.25 to push towards the upper targets. Reminder, we are still in a long-term bullish trend, though near-term sentiment remains cautious below the pivot.
NQ
The bull/bear line for the NQ is at 23,822. This is the key level that will dictate sentiment for today’s trade. Holding above this level can open the door for buyers to step in, while staying below signals continued weakness.
Currently, NQ is trading around 23,779, sitting under the bull/bear line. This positions the market in bearish territory. If selling persists, the immediate downside target is 23,734.50. A breakdown through this support could accelerate momentum toward the lower range target of 23,654.75. Below that, further weakness could extend to 23,497.50.
On the upside, the first area of resistance comes in at 23,804, then at 23,889.75, the upper range target for today. If buyers can regain control above 23,822 and sustain trade there, a push toward 23,963 and eventually 23,989 is possible. Stronger bullish continuation would require holding above 23,989 with potential extension toward 24,146.25.
Overall, the market remains in a vulnerable spot beneath 23,822. Bears have the edge until that level is reclaimed. If price can get back above and hold, buyers may shift control back toward higher levels.
Calendars
Today’s Economic Calendar
This Week’s Important Economic Events
Today’s Earnings
Recent Earnings
Room Summaries:
Polaris Trading Group Summary – Friday, August 15, 2025
Overview:
A clean and structured trading day with both bull and bear scenarios from the Daily Trade Strategy (DTS) fulfilling their targets. Traders who followed the levels and triggers had strong opportunities, and the room emphasized discipline, scenario planning, and mental preparation.
Key Trading Highlights:
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Bull Scenario Hit Early:
David’s premarket bull scenario (sustained bid above 6480 targeting 6495–6505) fulfilled early in the session, offering a solid long opportunity. -
Bear Scenario Played Out Later:
After the 10AM University of Michigan report, price shifted to the bear scenario (offer below 6480 targeting 6465–6460), which was fulfilled by the afternoon. David confirmed this at 2:00 PM. -
Premium Short Trigger Identified:
A short was triggered by a CCI crossover setup following a new low and first pullback—confirmed by David. Marked with a white star on the chart as the 200XT signal.
Technical Insights and Lessons:
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CCI-Based Entries:
The team discussed how CCI crossovers can signal premium entries, particularly after structural moves like new lows and pullbacks. -
If-Then Planning:
Members emphasized the importance of mental scenario planning. “Not support until it proves it” was a key mindset repeated during the session. -
Support/Resistance Awareness:
Key levels identified and respected:-
6480 as the pivot between bull/bear scenarios
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6465–6460 as downside bear targets
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6482.25 as an important decision level (held significance from the prior session)
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Room Activity and Flow:
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Manny contributed multiple charts with Fib clusters and support levels, adding context to the main scenarios.
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Ram asked insightful questions about CCI signals, leading to valuable clarifications from David.
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Group discussions remained active and positive, with several traders expressing appreciation for the session and the process.
Closing Notes:
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Both directional scenarios were fulfilled today, offering great real-time education.
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Traders benefited from a strong alignment between planning and market behavior.
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The room maintained a collaborative and focused tone, reinforcing PTG’s structured trading approach.
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Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.
Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!
This post goes out as an email to our subscribers every day and is posted for free here around 2 PM ET. To get your real-time copy, sign up for the free or premium version here: Opening Print Subscribe.
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