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Ending of a Quarter
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Our View
Yesterday’s action in the ES was a tale of two tapes: Globex strength into the early morning gave way to intraday selling pressure, with the regular session carving out a series of lower highs and lower lows. The downside never really cascaded, though, as strong MOC buy imbalances — led by NVDA, AAPL, and AVGO — helped stabilize the market into the close. That tug-of-war left the full session with a modest gain despite the choppy, indecisive tone.
This is the last trading day of the quarter. Expect heavier rebalancing flows, squaring of books, and possible window-dressing moves by funds. The market is torn between persistent buy programs in mega-cap tech and broader sectoral selling, which may keep ranges contained but choppy.
On the economic front, today’s calendar includes the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (9:00 AM ET), Chicago Business Barometer/PMI (9:45 AM ET), and JOLTS + Consumer Confidence (10:00 AM ET) — all of which could stir short-term moves, particularly given the Fed’s focus on labor and consumer data.
Our Lean
Given the quarter-end flows and yesterday’s lower-high structure, we’d expect a two-sided trade. I’d look to fade early strength if ES stalls under resistance (6730s–6735s), with an eye toward retests of 6700–6695 support. Conversely, sharp downside pushes may struggle for follow-through, making pullback buys near 6700 a tactical option.
Bottom line: stay flexible, respect the chop, and let the quarter-end order flow dictate the intraday lean.
MiM and Daily Recap
ES Futures Recap – Monday
The overnight Globex session opened at 6697.00 and initially pushed higher, finding steady momentum into the early morning. A climb extended into a high of 6736.00 at 6:20 AM, a 39-point rally from the open. From that peak, sellers emerged, sending ES down to 6723.50 by 7:40 AM, a modest 12.50-point pullback. A rebound attempt lifted futures back to 6735.75 at 9:00 AM, but that lower high set up a reversal. Heavy selling drove prices down through the 6722.25 open.
The regular session opened at 6722.25, only slightly above the morning low, and quickly weakened. Selling pressure pushed ES to 6715.75 at 9:40 AM, establishing a new low. A brief bounce to 6731 at 10:05 failed to gain traction, and futures slipped to 6706.25 by 11:50 AM and then further to 6699.50 at 1:30 PM. Another rally attempt reached 6714.00 at 2:25 PM but again faltered, and ES dropped to 6696.25 at 3:15 PM, the session’s intraday low. A late lift carried prices back to 6716.25 at 3:50 PM before softening into the close. The regular session settled at 6714.25, down 8.00 points or -0.12% from its open.
The cleanup session extended the modest weakness. ES slipped to 6706.75 before settling at 6708.50 by 5:00 PM, down 5.75 points (-0.09%) from the cleanup open. For the full session, futures finished with a net gain of 11.50 points (+0.17%), closing at 6708.50, up 18 points (+0.27%) from the prior cash close. Total volume reached 1.14 million contracts, led by 932,000 during regular trading hours.
Market tone carried a choppy, indecisive character. Early Globex strength faded quickly, and the regular session carved a series of lower highs and lower lows, highlighting intraday selling pressure. However, downside follow-through remained limited, keeping the overall structure contained within a relatively narrow band.
The Market-on-Close data revealed a strong imbalance to buy. At 3:51 PM, total imbalances registered $6.5 billion with 87.8% of the purchase on the buy side. Symbol imbalance measured 60.3%, comfortably above neutral but not extreme. Sector flows were heavily skewed toward technology and financials, with semiconductors in particular showing outsized demand. NVDA led the buy side with a $704 million imbalance, followed by AAPL at $456 million and AVGO at $319 million. Despite this heavy skew toward large-cap tech and financials, selling emerged in consumer cyclicals such as CVNA (-$126 million) and defensives like PEP (-$40 million).
The late-session bid from the imbalance helped stabilize ES into the close, but the overall action underscored mixed sentiment. The bullish imbalance contrasted with the day’s intraday weakness, leaving the tape torn between persistent buy programs in mega-cap tech and broader sectoral selling. In the end, ES managed to notch a small full-session gain, though traders will watch closely to see if the strong imbalance flow carries momentum into the next session or if the lower-high structure continues to weigh.
Technical Edge
Fair Values for September 30, 2025:
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SP: 52.58
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NQ: 223.59
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Dow: 297.41
Daily Market Recap 📊
For Monday, September 29, 2025
• NYSE Breadth: 51.67% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 62.18% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 60.91% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 48.77% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 54.46% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 52.34% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 119 / 41
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 227 / 101
• NYSE TRIN: 0.82
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.71
Weekly Breadth Data 📈
For Week Ending Friday, September 26, 2025
• NYSE Breadth: 50.16% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 54.27% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 52.76% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 38.79% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 40.16% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 39.65% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 312 / 107
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 692 / 209
• NYSE TRIN: 0.61
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.56
ES & NQ Levels (Premium only)
ES – Z Levels
The bull/bear line for the ES is at 6694.00. This is the key level that needs to be reclaimed and held for bullish momentum to resume. Above this level, the focus shifts to buying opportunities on dips.
Currently, ES is trading around 6702.25, just above the bull/bear line, giving a neutral-to-slightly bullish bias to start the session. If buyers can maintain trade above 6694.00, the upper range target sits at 6787.25.
On the downside, if ES slips back under 6694.00 and sustains, the first key support comes in at 6639.75, followed by the lower range target at 6600.75. A break of 6600.75 would increase downside momentum, exposing deeper support at 6517.75 and beyond.
Overall, the bias remains constructive while above 6694.00. Sustained trade above 6756.75 strengthens the bull case, while trade back under 6694.00 shifts control to the sellers.
NQ – Z – Levels
The bull/bear line for the NQ is at 24,726.75. This is the key pivot level to gauge intraday sentiment. Trading above this favors bullish setups, while remaining below suggests continued downside pressure.
Currently, NQ is trading around 24,803.75, sitting just above the bull/bear line. This suggests a neutral to slightly bullish bias as long as price holds above 24,726.75.
On the upside, immediate resistance sits at 24,850, followed by stronger resistance at 25,027.25. The upper range target for today is 25,175, with an extension possible toward 25,597.50 if momentum strengthens.
On the downside, support comes in first at the bull/bear line of 24,726.75. A break back below this level would weaken the structure and bring 24,422.75 into play, with the lower range target at 24,277. A decisive breakdown through that zone could accelerate losses toward 23,854.50.
Overall, the market is balanced near the bull/bear line. Holding above 24,726.75 supports attempts higher, but failure to hold this pivot shifts the outlook bearish, targeting the lower range levels.
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Calendars
Economic Calendar
Today
Important Upcoming
Earnings
Trading Room Summaries
Polaris Trading Group Summary – Monday, September 29, 2025
Monday was Cycle Day 1 (CD1) and Series Day S3L, which historically implies a rotational, choppy character, especially in the morning session. Manny and PTGDavid guided the room through several key pivot windows using time-based analysis (The Clock) and structure-based trading strategies. Despite some chop, the day provided valuable educational content, several positive trade opportunities, and great insights into systematic discipline and patience.
Key Positive Trades & Setups
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Early Long Trade (Manny):
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Entry: Back above 6722.25
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Exit: +5 @ 6730, then +8 @ 6733
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Highlighted early strength in the market and effective use of structure for entry.
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Crude Oil Open Range Short (@CL):
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PTGDavid: Announced trade and confirmed “All Targets fulfilled” by 9:27 AM – a textbook trade setup executed cleanly.
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NQ Open Range Long (10:10 AM):
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Screenshot shared by David — bullish structure held up through consolidation within the clock window.
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Manny’s Afternoon Trade:
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Entry: S6716 during the 11:30 candle, anticipating a low pivot at 12:30
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Exit: +5 off a “pseudo A4” at the 2:30 PM pivot high, then +10 more in the afternoon
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A strong example of timing trades within clock windows for optimal reward.
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Last Hour Low Pivot:
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Right on time at 3:20 PM (as forecasted)
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Manny: “Trailed out” profitably
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David shared that the full CD1 range target (6697–6735) was achieved.
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Key Lessons & Educational Highlights
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S3 Days Require Patience:
Manny emphasized that S3 days are often best avoided early on due to chop. He reinforced the value of waiting for structure and clock alignment, rather than forcing trades. -
“The Clock” Explained in Detail:
Manny delivered a masterclass on his time-based trading model:-
Each day (S1–S4) has predictable high/low pivot windows.
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Today’s S3L pivot windows (CT):
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Low: 10:30
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High: 11:20
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Low: 12:35
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High: 2:30
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Final Low: 3:20
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These windows played out well, reinforcing the reliability of the clock model.
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Trading Boot Camp Discipline:
Manny shared his path to profitability:-
3-month boot camp (1 contract, 3 trades/day limit)
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Rule violations meant restarting the entire process
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Took him a full year but was transformative.
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Excel Tools & Historical Tracking:
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Manny shared screenshots of:
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His clock model tracking going back to 2015
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His performance tracker spreadsheet
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Reinforced the value of journaling and self-review for developing edge.
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Wisdom Shared:
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“Nothing in trading is perfect, but follow along… eventually you trust it.”
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“Keep adding tools to your belt. Throw out what doesn’t serve us.”
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“The clock is a tool outside of price — and it works.”
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Notable Mentions
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Chief shared a video on how he draws zones – well received by the group.
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Many participants engaged actively, with appreciation expressed for the community learning environment.
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Manny credited WB (Wyckoff AM Trader) for teaching him the clock model back in 2013/14.
Summary Takeaway
Despite the typical choppiness of an S3L day, PTG members navigated the session with discipline, structure, and time-tested tools. Patience paid off, especially for those who waited for setups to align with the clock model, leading to several profitable trades in the afternoon session. The educational content — particularly around time-based pivots and trading psychology — made this a standout learning day.
Looking Ahead:
Today is expected to be S4H, which historically offers more directional clarity, especially on CD1 — potentially setting the tone for the rest of the week.
Discovery Trading Group Room Preview – Tuesday, September 30, 2025
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Government Shutdown Watch
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Government shutdown likely at 12:01am ET tonight after failed talks between President Trump and Democratic leadership.
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BLS to cease operations if shutdown occurs, potentially impacting future economic data.
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Senate has a last-minute vote tentatively scheduled for today.
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Tariffs & Trade
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President Trump announced:
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10% tariff on softwood timber/lumber.
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25% tariff on certain upholstered wooden products (effective Oct. 14).
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Proposed 100% tariff on foreign films.
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Homebuilders warn lumber tariffs could hurt new home/renovation investment.
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Canada, already facing 35.2% tariffs, will be significantly impacted.
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Corporate & Crypto
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Visa (V) to test stablecoin-based cross-border transactions.
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Earnings Today:
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Paychex (PAYX) – premarket
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Nike (NKE) – after the bell
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Economic Data – All Times ET
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9:00am – HPI, S&P/CS 20-City HPI
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9:45am – Chicago PMI
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10:00am – JOLTS Job Openings, CB Consumer Confidence
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Fed Speakers
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9:00am – Susan Collins (Boston)
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1:30pm – Austan Goolsbee (Chicago)
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Market Technicals & Volatility
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Volatility remains moderate; ES 5-day ADR: 55.25 pts.
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Whale bias bullish into US open on strong overnight volume.
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ES trading mid-channel in short-term uptrend.
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Trendline Resistance: 6790/95, 6840/45, 7046/51
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Trendline Support: 6618/23
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Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.
Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!
This post goes out as an email to our subscribers every day and is posted for free here around 2 PM ET. To get your real-time copy, sign up for the free or premium version here: Opening Print Subscribe.
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