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ES and NQ: September Outlook and Market Dynamics
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Our View
The Fed, interest rates, inflation, US debt, the dollar, wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, and an unrelenting relationship between Putin and Xi that wants to create a new world order that doesn’t include the United States or the dollar—and a very high level of complacency. I think we are in for all of the above when it comes to the ES and September.
I remember asking a very, very smart friend two or three years ago if we had to worry about all the negative dollar talk. He sluffed me off and said, “Don’t worry about the dollar, it will always be king.“ I didn’t say anything back because I knew he was wrong. I’ve said many times that “the US can’t be the global sheriff anymore,“ and here we are—sitting on a record $37.3 trillion in debt, inflation, a falling dollar, and gold exploding.
Goldman Sachs strategist Lina Thomas said gold’s role as a hedge is once again front and center. “Hedging portfolio risk with gold has come back into focus this year,” she said, citing the sharp post-April selloff in both bonds and stocks, and “renewed questions about Fed independence.”
“Central banks have also accelerated gold purchases,” Thomas said, noting that global central bank gold buying has increased more than fivefold since the U.S. and its allies froze $300 billion in Russian central bank reserves in 2022.
Those reserves can’t be frozen when held in physical gold, especially when stored domestically. This insulation trend, Thomas said, is lifting prices across the board as countries rush to hoard.
Something has to give—but when?
I don’t think it’s going to happen in the first 10 days of September. Look, with the way things are setting up, there are flashing red lights all over the place. And as weak as the ES and NQ may act, it’s the same prices over and over. This doesn’t mean the ES and NQ can’t go slamming down, but I think there will have to be a bigger catalyst to take out the August 1, 6238 low.
What happened with the ES and NQ yesterday? Wednesday’s trade was a carbon copy of Tuesday’s—a threatening-looking selloff and then a big rally. Why? New money is being put to work in the first days of the new month. If you look back into the stock market’s price action over the last two sessions, a total of $9 billion has been bought on the 3:50 imbalance. The ES and NQ tumble, look horrible two days in a row, and then go flying back up in the last 30 minutes, taking out the shorts again. Even the PitBull said they are not hiding the late-day front-running at all.
Is it front-running, or is it the natural flows that go in and out of stock? I think it’s a little of both, but with global yields rising over the last few sessions, I think it’s more about selling treasuries and buying US stock indexes and ETFs. Just think—if we see $6 billion to buy, how many other billions were bought before the actual imbalance and cash close?
At the end of the day, four-day trading weeks pack in a high level of economic reports, Fed speak, and headline news. In terms of the ES and NQ’s overall tone, I think they acted well. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, I didn’t see this, but Tuesday’s total volume was actually 1.8 million, and yesterday’s total volume was lower at 1.4 million contracts traded.
Gold closed at a record $3,593.20, oil dropped after sources within OPEC indicated they could possibly raise production, and the dollar weakened slightly.
This morning’s economic calendar includes the ADP number at 8:15, Initial Jobless Claims, U.S. productivity (revision), and the U.S. trade deficit at 8:30; S&P final U.S. services PMI at 9:45; ISM and the Senate Banking nomination hearing for Stephen Miran to be Fed governor at 10:00; New York Fed President John Williams speaks at 12:05, and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaks at 7:00 p.m.
While Trump is blowing up the world with his tariffs, the Trump brothers-backed bitcoin mining company surged after American Bitcoin’s public listing, just days after the Trump family reportedly made as much as $5 billion on paper from a separate digital token. We already know Trump was going all in on Bitcoin when Musk had his ear, and now his kid’s company goes public. Do you think they know something about the dollar that we don’t?
Our View
I think the ES and NQ got some help from the bonds and notes rallying in addition to the big late buy program/imbalance. There has been a distinct pattern sticking out: an early drop, then a low and rip. I can’t see anything standing in the way of the ES and NQ from going higher. I don’t pay a lot of attention to all the economic numbers, but recently there have been some that are market-moving—and I’m not talking CPI or PPI.
Our Lean
The VIX traded up to 19.36 around 11:00 and fell to 16.92 at 4:31. While there is a high level of complacency, the drop shows a lack of fear.
Our lean: Continue to buy the dumps, but I also can’t rule out selling the early gap-up or early strength. I’m not sure how much more buying we will see on the MIM today, so depending on the late price action—and barring another big buy—we could see some late selling, i.e., the PitBull’s Thursday low before the expiration. Powell is back on the hot seat this week, and Fryday’s jobs number will be an extremely important data point.
As for levels:
Support – 6454, 6450, 6444, 6436, 6425, 6416, 6412, 6402, 6396
Resistance – 6475, 6490, 6508, 6526, 6530, 6548
MiM and Daily Recap
Intraday Recap
The overnight Globex session began with strength, lifting ES to 6488.00. However, momentum quickly faded, and a steady slide developed through the evening. The contract retreated to 6429.50 by 21:30, a 58.50‑point drop, and further lows followed at 6428.75 at 22:40 and 6425.50 at 01:50. This overnight downtrend was eventually reversed, with buyers stepping in before dawn. A rally carried prices back to 6460.25 by 07:10, but the push stalled there. A final pullback at 8:30 brought ES down to 6444.25 with the session ending up closing slightly higher at 6448.75. Globex overnight was up .75 from the open and up 22.75 from the previous cash close.
The regular session opened at 6448.75 and tested lower levels early. A morning dip reached 6437.75 at 10:10. From there, ES mounted a rebound, peaking at 6464.25 by 11:05 for the morning high, a 26.50‑point lift off the low. The midday action turned choppy, with successive pullbacks. The contract retraced to 6441.75 at 12:00, briefly bounced to 6450.50 at 13:15, then slid to a new intraday low of 6426.50 at 14:35, marking nearly 38 points off the morning high.
In the final hours, buyers regained control. ES surged into the close, reclaiming lost ground and reaching 6462.75 at 16:30. The cash session ended at 6458.50, up 9.75 points or 0.15% from the open, and finishing 32.50 points or 0.51% above the prior day’s settlement. Cleanup trade added a modest gain, with the 17:00 close at 6460.50.
Overall volume totaled 1.39 million contracts, with 1.13 million traded during the cash session. The day’s net change reflected a steady recovery from overnight weakness and midday pressure.
Market tone skewed constructive despite intraday volatility. Buyers were able to defend key support around 6425 and steadily reassert control late in the day. The steady buying pressure into the bell was supported by imbalance data. The Market‑on‑Close monitor showed a substantial $4.125 billion to buy at 15:51, with 79.5% of dollars helping to fuel the late surge into the close.
The broader sentiment leaned bullish, with dip buyers stepping in consistently during both Globex and regular trading hours. Despite early softness and midday lows, the session concluded with ES printing near highs. With a 0.51% gain from close to close, the market showed resilience and appetite to buy into weakness. Heading into the next session, momentum remains supportive as long as 6425‑6430 holds as a floor, while resistance sits near 6465‑6470 where supply capped advances during the day.
Dan @ GTC Traders
No One Really Knows Anything (Have Robust Models)
Not really.
Non-Farm Payrolls data is approaching this Friday. As I peruse the X and other Social Media Streams … traders are parsing every whisper for clues on employment strength. Will it show a resilient labor market, or cracks that could sway the Fed’s hand? At the same time, inflationary forces remain persistent and structural. We’ve long held that both fiscal and monetary policies seem oddly unconcerned about these risks. Core PCE ticked up recently.
Then there’s the AI narrative dominating headlines. Has the hype reached a critical juncture? Exuberance around generative tech and its potential to revolutionize earnings is palpable, with mega-cap stocks trading at extreme valuations and premiums on pure hope.
Geopolitical tensions add another layer. From ongoing conflicts in Eastern Europe to trade frictions with China. Commercial real estate concerns compound the picture. Delinquencies are rising. Regional banks exposed to these loans face balance sheet pressures, and while some argue it’s contained, a broader spillover isn’t off the table.
And everywhere I turn, it seems that everyone believes they have a true handle on how all of these factors will play out.
Let me say, that officially at GTC Traders?
While we try to understand ‘initial conditions’?
We don’t have a clue how everything will play out a year from now.
And to be quite blunt? No one does. Anyone who says they do, is either a liar? A fool? Or both.
All these factors interplay in complex ways, influencing what we refer to as initial conditions, the here-and-now state of markets. We debate them internally, trying to grasp the environment without illusions. But here’s the crux: despite our efforts to understand these dynamics, nobody really knows what’s coming down the pipe. Absolute prediction is impossible. Modern quantitative finance acknowledges this truth. Markets are chaotic systems, governed by complexity mechanics where small changes can cascade unpredictably.
These macro puzzles are fascinating to dissect, but resolution is unknowable.
So what we like to focus on?
Having robust models. That would be our advice to any trader.
Quantitative studies show that over various time frames, directional calls are often no better than a coin flip. That’s why we don’t chase predictions. Instead, we build robust models designed for out-of-sample testing and live trading conditions. These processes must withstand unseen data, stress scenarios, and regime shifts, maintaining positive expectancy across iterations.
Have trading models and trading programs that are not ‘curve fit’ with the perfect parameters. Focus on robustness over prophecy. That’s the path to enduring in this game.
Until next time? Stay safe and trade well.
Technical Edge
Fair Values for September 4, 2025
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S&P: 9.92
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NQ: 42.38
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Dow: 66.7
Daily Breadth Data 📊
For Wednesday, September 3, 2025
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NYSE Breadth: 44% Upside Volume
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Nasdaq Breadth: 54% Upside Volume
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Total Breadth: 53% Upside Volume
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NYSE Advance/Decline: 53% Advance
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Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 48% Advance
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Total Advance/Decline: 50% Advance
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NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 91 / 25
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Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 126 / 112
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NYSE TRIN: 1.43
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Nasdaq TRIN: 0.76
Weekly Breadth Data 📈
For the Week Ending Friday, August 29, 2025
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NYSE Breadth: 53% Upside Volume
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Nasdaq Breadth: 56% Upside Volume
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Total Breadth: 55% Upside Volume
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NYSE Advance/Decline: 48% Advance
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Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 44% Advance
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Total Advance/Decline: 46% Advance
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NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 281 / 25
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Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 478 / 166
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NYSE TRIN: 0.80
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Nasdaq TRIN: 0.60
BTS Levels:
ESU2025
The bull/bear line for the ES is at 6452.25. This is the key pivot level for today, and market sentiment will remain bearish while trading below this line. A sustained move above it could shift momentum back in favor of the bulls.
Currently, ES is trading around 6469.25, showing early strength above the bull/bear line. If buyers can defend this level, the first resistance comes at 6498.75, which is our upper range target. Beyond that, a push toward 6542.50 (R1) would be the next upside objective.
On the downside, initial support comes in at 6457.25 and then 6448. A break below these levels exposes the lower range target at 6406. If this fails to hold, deeper support sits at 6362.25 (S1).
Overall, as long as ES holds above 6452.25, the path of least resistance favors the upside, with 6498.75 as the next major test. A failure back below 6452.25, however, could bring sellers back into control, targeting 6425.50 and 6406.
NQU2025
The bull/bear line for the NQ is at 23,434. This is the key pivot that determines directional sentiment. Trading above this level favors the bulls, while sustained action below it keeps pressure on the downside.
Currently, NQ is trading at 23,511.75, above the bull/bear line, which leans the bias toward the bullish side. If buyers can hold above 23,434, upside targets include 23,678, the upper range target, and next at R1 23,907.50. A breakout above 23,907.50 would open the door for extended momentum.
On the downside, if NQ slips back below 23,434, the first support comes in at 23,382, followed by 23,298.25. The lower range target sits at 23,190. A break of that level would expose deeper downside risk toward 22,960.50.
Overall, the immediate battle is centered on holding above 23,434. Bulls want to keep the market bid above this pivot, while bears need to force price back below it to regain control.
Calendars
Economic Calendar Today
This Week’s High Importance
Earnings:
Released
Trading Room News:
Polaris Trading Group Summary: Wednesday, September 3, 2025
Overview:
Yesterday’s session started with a bullish tone carried over from the previous day’s late rally. The key early focus was on whether price could sustain above 6425 and target the 6455–6465 Bull’s Eye Zone. Overall, the day delivered several strong long and short trade setups, key lessons on trade psychology and execution, and a textbook afternoon reversal powered by a massive MOC buy imbalance.
Market Context and Strategy
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Premarket strength led by GOOGL’s legal win lifted futures ~50bps
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Bullish bias held while SPX remained above 6400
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Implied volatility expected to contract on clean economic data, creating potential path to SPX 6550–6600
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Overnight rally extended into the open, precisely hitting the 6455–6465 Bull’s Eye Target Zone
Key Trade Setups and Execution
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Bullish continuation setups posted premarket by Manny played out during the morning session
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Long scenarios activated above ES 6456–6466 targeting ES 6483 and 6516
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A support buy at 6438 ES triggered; trade wasn’t clean but held, offering positive risk-reward
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Price interaction with Gamma Zones provided both long and short opportunities
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Afternoon saw successful A10 shorts called by Roy as price moved lower toward 6425
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6425 served as the day’s Line in the Sand and was defended into the close
Late Day Reversal and Flow Insights
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Around 3:25 PM, a valid Bull Stacker signal appeared on the 750t chart
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Stacker breakout had no pullback but was supported by a text alert and clear structure breakout
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Mutual fund and options flow drove the final hour rally
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$4.6B MOC buy imbalance confirmed institutional buying pressure
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Over $10B in MOC activity for first two days of September
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SpotGamma reported $3B in positive 0DTE flow in final 20 minutes
Lessons and Takeaways
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Gamma Zones proved instrumental in managing trades and identifying reversals
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Flexibility to trade both sides of the market was key to success
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Mindset control discussed; multiple stops in a short period can trigger emotional responses
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Text-based stacker alerts provided clean, objective entries without second-guessing
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Stackers may not offer pullbacks, an important nuance when managing expectations
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Options flow remains a leading indicator, particularly late in the session
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As David put it: “If you’re not watching Options Flow, you’re toast.”
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Summary
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Strong execution in both long and short setups
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Technical levels and premarket plans respected throughout the session
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Afternoon reversal showcased the power of combining tape reading with flow awareness
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Clean finish to a well-executed day in the PTG room
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Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.
Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!
This post goes out as an email to our subscribers every day and is posted for free here around 2 PM ET. To get your real-time copy, sign up for the free or premium version here: Opening Print Subscribe.
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