This post goes out as an email to our subscribers every day and is posted for free here around 2 PM ET. To get your real-time copy, sign up for the free or premium version here: Opening Print Subscribe.
ES Takes a Breather After 158-Point Rally – Added missing Guest Post PTG
Follow @MrTopStep on Twitter and please share if you find our work valuable!
Our View
The ES traded in a 27-point range for most of the day until the futures traded down to a new low at 5809.25 at 2:50PM ET and later rallied up to 5829.50. But that’s not where the action was—it was in the NQ, which closed at a five-day high, up 0.70% vs. the ES’s gain of 0.28%. It looked like a rotation into the NQ and out of the YM, which gained a modest 0.06%, and out of the RTY (small caps), which closed down 0.53%.
As I said in the lean, after a 158-point rally over two days, the ES needed a rest day—and that’s what it got.
As we count down to President Trump’s April 2nd tariff deadline, the main question is: will he be naughty or nice? Or both? I think the latter, as he could also announce that new tariffs on the pharmaceutical and auto sectors are coming in the “near future.” In another abrupt salvo, Trump said Monday the US would impose a “secondary tariff” on any country that buys oil or gas from Venezuela.
While the markets have rallied and I’ve changed my tune, I’m not 100% sure it’s crystal clear—but as I’ve always said, I’m not here to fight city hall and if the ES is going up or down, I want to go for the ride.
Clearly, the markets have calmed down, but the overall picture remains murky. Lower earnings and evidence that the economy is cooling were evident in yesterday’s consumer confidence number, which showed a bigger drop than economists had expected and fell to the lowest level since early 2021.
I think we all knew a sell-off was inevitable, but the big question is: can the ES and NQ keep going up while uncertainty remains high and the risk of recession continues to persist?
Our Lean
This morning we have Durable Goods at 8:30, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari speaking at 10:00, and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem speaking at 1:10.
Our lean: I still think you can buy the pullbacks, and if the ES gaps lower this morning, I’ll be looking to be a buyer—or buy the pullbacks. Levels to watch on the downside: 5810, 5790, and 5760. On the upside, the ES needs to punch out of the 5840 level and hold above 5850. Above there, I have 5960, 5875, and 5890.
From Stock Traders Almanac
April is the Second-Best Month for S&P 500 and DJIA
April 1999 was the first month ever to gain 1,000 DJIA points. However, from 2000 to 2005, “Tax” month was hit, declining in four of six years.
From 2006 through 2021, April was up sixteen years in a row with an average gain of 2.9%, reclaiming its position as the best DJIA month since 1950. DJIA’s streak of April gains ended in 2022’s bear market, declining 4.9% that year and 5.0% again in 2024.
April is now the second-best month for DJIA (+1.8%) and S&P 500 (+1.5%) since 1950, and fourth best for NASDAQ (+1.3%) since 1971.
In post-election years, April remains a top-performing month—ranking second best for DJIA and S&P 500, and third best for NASDAQ. Average gains since 1950 for DJIA and S&P 500 are comparable to all years, but notably improve for NASDAQ, Russell 1000, and Russell 2000. NASDAQ’s three post-election year April declines were in 1973, 1993, and 2005.
MiM and Daily Recap
Tuesday’s ES session opened the Globex trade at 5813.00 and initially pressed lower, tagging an overnight low of 5802.25 at 4:45 AM ET. This marked the session’s weakest print before a modest rally ensued. The market lifted up to 5834, buoyed by the 8:30 AM weaker consumer confidence news. That marked a 31.75-point change from the Globex low. The premarket high faded into the 9:30 AM regular session open (5826.00) and continued down until 10:00 AM, where it found buyers at 5812.25.
Bulls regained control heading into mid-morning, driving the ES to a session high of 5837.25 at 10:51 AM, the day’s peak. That 25-point bounce off the low represented a brief show of strength, but it didn’t hold. A steady selloff followed, dragging prices to a lower high of 5822.00 at 12:21 PM and then to a midday low of 5814.50 by 12:33 PM.
The afternoon brought a series of lower highs and lower lows. A modest bounce lifted the ES to 5828.25 at 1:09 PM, followed by a sharp decline to 5810.50 at 2:06 PM. Although the market rebounded again to 5822.25 by 2:21 PM, that rally also faded, marking another lower high. Sellers pressed once more into 2:51 PM, printing the low of the day at 5809.50 before buyers staged a late-day recovery.
Into the closing hour, the ES rallied steadily and settled the cash session back at 5826.00, flat on the day’s open and up 12.50 points (+0.22%) from the prior close. Cleanup trading brought the final settlement to 5832.00, adding 6 more points into the 5:00 PM close.
Full session volume came in at 1,016,009 contracts, with 804,615 traded during the regular session. Globex accounted for 173,579, while the cleanup volume added 37,815.
Despite volatility throughout the day, Tuesday’s trade held a neutral to slightly bullish tone overall. The session printed a flat open-to-close in regular hours, but bulls did manage to defend key levels, particularly with the closing lift from the 5809.50 low.
The structure reflected indecision, with multiple failed rallies and lower highs suggesting persistent overhead supply. Yet, each dip found responsive buying — highlighting the market’s reluctance to break down further.
The Market-on-Close imbalance at 3:54 PM showed a significant -$1.145B to sell, with 56.9% of symbols leaning to the sell side. While under the 66% extreme threshold, this imbalance pressured prices into the final ten minutes before a small bounce emerged. The sell imbalance may have capped the late-day recovery from extending further
Technical Edge
MrTopStep Levels:
Fair Values for March 26, 2025:
-
SP: 49.09
-
NQ: 198.3
-
Dow: 317.1
Daily Market Recap 📊
-
NYSE Breadth: 44% Upside Volume
-
Nasdaq Breadth: 43% Upside Volume
-
Total Breadth: 44% Upside Volume
-
NYSE Advance/Decline: 45% Advance
-
Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 39% Advance
-
Total Advance/Decline: 41% Advance
-
NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 52 / 42
-
Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 69 / 164
-
NYSE TRIN: 0.91
-
Nasdaq TRIN: 0.85
Weekly Market 📈
-
NYSE Breadth: 52% Upside Volume
-
Nasdaq Breadth: 54% Upside Volume
-
Total Breadth: 53% Upside Volume
-
NYSE Advance/Decline: 61% Advance
-
Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 58% Advance
-
Total Advance/Decline: 59% Advance
-
NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 105 / 146
-
Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 189 / 395
-
NYSE TRIN: 0.87
-
Nasdaq TRIN: 0.87
Guest Posts — Polaris Trading Group
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3: Three-Day Rally propelled price 186 pts (186.03%) fulfilling cycle targets. This session was a “Balancing Day” with a bullish lean, as market participants absorbed the recent rally. Range for this session was 35 handles on 1.015M contracts exchanged.
FREE TRIAL link to PTG/Taylor Three Day Cycle
For a more detailed recap of the trading session, click on this link: Trading Room RECAP 3.25.25
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
Transition into Cycle Day 1: Normal for CD1 is for decline with the average measuring 5800.
Price is in a recovery/retracement phase as bulls look to stabilize a bid and hunt for individual stock bargains.
We continue to view the current price action as corrective to the 10% decline. Tariffs remain front-page news in the minds of traders this coming April 2nd.
Of course, nothing changes for PTG…Simply follow your plan. Take only Triple A setups and manage the $risk. ALWAYS HAVE HARD STOP-LOSSES in-place on the exchange.
PTG’s Primary Directive (PD) is to ALWAYS STAY IN ALIGNMENT with the DOMINANT FORCE.
As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 5825+-, initially targets 5845 – 5850 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 5825+-, initially targets 5800 – 5795 zone.
PVA High Edge = 5828 PVA Low Edge = 5813 Prior POC = 5816
ESM
Thanks for reading, PTGDavid
Trading Room Summaries
Polaris Trading Group Summary – Tuesday, March 25, 2025
Today’s trading session began with clean, strategic opportunities in both ES and NQ, followed by a shift into slower, grinding rhythms that tested traders’ patience and discipline. Crude Oil provided the clearest trade of the day, while equity index futures required a more measured approach.
Positive Trade Highlights:
-
ES and NQ Bullish Targets Fulfilled Early:
ES hit its initial upside target at 5830, and NQ reached 20400, both in alignment with the Daily Trade Strategy (DTS). These were textbook executions of the opening bullish scenarios, offering early directional opportunity. -
CL Open Range Short (OPR) Fully Completed:
Crude Oil delivered a solid short setup. All downside targets were met, including Target 1, Target 2, and final completion of the OPR short sequence. A standout trade on a day when equity futures provided less clarity.
Market Conditions and Intraday Observations:
-
Following the morning’s directional moves, ES and NQ drifted into VWAP-centered chop with non-directional price action. David noted this was a grinder-type rhythm with little follow-through, making directional trades difficult.
-
Volatility was notably low, with VIX dropping to 17 by the afternoon. David likened this to trading utility stocks, highlighting that such environments require scaled-down expectations and tighter targets.
-
Late in the day, the market faced a sizable $644M MOC sell imbalance. Despite this, bulls maintained strength into the close, keeping prices bid and holding ground in the face of selling pressure.
Key Lessons and Takeaways:
-
Patience as a Trading Edge:
With rhythms slow and volatility compressed, David emphasized the importance of waiting for clean setups rather than forcing trades. A quote from Isabel on trading psychology reinforced the value of sitting still and waiting for opportunity. -
Know When to Engage and When Not To:
Recognizing when there’s no edge—such as price sitting at mid-VWAP or grinding within tight ranges—is just as important as identifying a setup. This type of discipline separates successful traders from impulsive ones. -
Adapting to Market Conditions:
David reminded traders to scale expectations in slower conditions, especially when VIX is at historical lows. A wide-range trading mindset doesn’t apply in low-ATR environments.
End of Day Summary:
The day began with clearly defined, successful bullish trades in ES and NQ and a strong short sequence in CL. As the session progressed, conditions shifted into slow, choppy action with little directional conviction, demanding a disciplined, adaptive approach. The main takeaway was patience—recognizing that sometimes the best trade is no trade at all when market conditions offer little edge.
Discovery Trading Group Room Preview – Wednesday, March 26, 2025
-
MARKET RECAP: S&P AND NASDAQ EXTEND GAINS
-
S&P 500 rose 0.1%, Nasdaq added nearly 0.5% for a third straight day of gains.
-
Tesla (TSLA) led with a 3% move higher.
-
Markets remain cautious ahead of the April 2 reciprocal tariffs and rising trade uncertainty.
TRADE AND TARIFF WATCH
-
President Trump signaled possible exemptions, saying he “may give a lot of countries breaks.”
-
New tariffs could hit autos, pharmaceuticals, copper, and countries buying oil from Venezuela.
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SLIDES
-
March Conference Board reading dropped to 92.9 (from 100.1 in February), the lowest in 4 years.
-
Expectations Index fell to 65.2 – lowest in 12 years, and below the 80 recession-warning threshold for the second month.
HOUSING POLICY SHIFT UNDER FHFA
-
FHFA Director Bill Pulte ended down-payment assistance for first-time homebuyers.
-
Signals further moves toward privatizing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, with potential industry impact.
GAMESTOP JUMPS ON BITCOIN NEWS
-
GameStop (GME) rose 6% after hours despite a 28% Q4 year-over-year sales drop.
-
Board approved adding Bitcoin to its treasury reserves.
PREMARKET EARNINGS ON DECK
-
Reports due from Chewy (CHWY), Cintas (CTAS), Dollar Tree (DLTR), Jefferies Financial Group (JEF), and Paychex (PAYX).
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
-
Durable Goods at 8:30 AM ET
-
Crude Oil Inventories at 10:30 AM ET
-
Federal Reserve speakers: Neel Kashkari (Minneapolis), Alberto Musalem (St. Louis)
VOLATILITY AND ORDER FLOW
-
Volatility fell sharply Tuesday but remains moderately elevated.
-
ES 5-day average daily range: 82 points.
-
No significant overnight whale activity noted.
ES TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
-
ES continues consolidating around Monday’s high.
-
Trendline Resistance: 6212/07s
-
Support Levels: 5791/94s, 5725/20s, 5675/80s, 5492/87s, 5400/95s
-
ES -Week to Week
The bull/bear line for the ES is at 5823.75. This is the key pivot level that must be reclaimed for bullish control to reassert. As long as price remains below this line, the tone remains cautious to bearish.
Currently, ES is trading around 5824.75, right near the bull/bear line. If buyers can sustain above this level, the next upside targets are 5826.50 and 5870.75, the upper intraday range target. Clearing that opens the door toward 5915.25.
If sellers regain control and push price back under 5823.75, downside targets include 5813.00 and then 5802.25. A break below this zone brings 5776.75 into focus, today’s lower range target. Continued weakness could extend toward 5732.50.
Additional support is seen at 5776.75 and 5732.50. Resistance above sits at 5837.25 and 5870.75.
The current battle at the bull/bear line will be pivotal. Watch for sustained acceptance above or below 5823.75 to determine directional bias through today’s session.
NQ – Week to Week
The bull/bear line for the NQ is at 20,456.75. This is the key level that determines market sentiment for today. Price is currently trading just above it at 20,464.75, so bulls will need to confirm a hold above this level for any sustained upside move.
If NQ can stay above 20,456.75, upside targets include 20,488.50 followed by the upper range target at 20,683.75. Beyond that, the next major resistance level is at 20,897.50.
If NQ loses 20,456.75 and confirms weakness, look for price to push down toward the lower range target at 20,229.50. Between the bull/bear pivot and the lower range target is 20,353 and 20,293 to look for trading support.
Overall, neutral-to-bearish bias below 20,456.75, and bullish sentiment resumes only with sustained acceptance above this key pivot.
Calendars
Economic Calendar
Today
Important Upcoming
Earnings
Affiliate Disclosure: This newsletter may contain affiliate links, which means we may earn a commission if you click through and make a purchase. This comes at no additional cost to you and helps us continue providing valuable content. We only recommend products or services we genuinely believe in. Thank you for your support!
Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.
Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!
This post goes out as an email to our subscribers every day and is posted for free here around 2 PM ET. To get your real-time copy, sign up for the free or premium version here: Opening Print Subscribe.
Comments are closed