#ES Trump’s China Tariff Deal Victory Lap

#ES Trump’s China Tariff Deal Victory Lap

I am not going to do a ‘blow by blow’ of the day’s ups and downs. What I will say is that it seems like the recent Globex sessions have proven to be a better trade than the day sessions over the last several sessions. I tried to stay away from being overly bullish or bearish for a few reasons. The first was that I didn’t have a good feel for what was going to happen yesterday and the second part was the PitBull warning that the markets were setting up for a downturn. The two combined made me take a step back from providing my view. I think we all know that S&P 500 futures (ESH20:CME) is overextended but that doesn’t matter. As long as the Fed’s printing presses are printing cash the trend really is your friend. After rallying up to 3299.00 before President Trump’s China tariff victory lap speech that ES started to downtick.  During and just after the speech the ES got hit by several small sell programs as the Nasdaq futures (NQH20:CME) got weak. After making a 12.75 handles down to 3286.25 going into 1:00 CT the future caught the short off guard and rallied up to 3295.50 and then back down to 3288.25 just after 2:00. 

At 2:30 the ES traded 3294 as the final 2:50 cash imbalance showed 1.4B to buy, traded 3288.50 on the 3:00 cash close and settled the day at 3294.00 on the 3;15 futures close, 6 handles (0.17%) on the day. 

In terms of the ES’s overall tone, I said it yesterday and I will say it again, the ES is firm but SKITTISH!! In terms of the day’s overall trade, 1.4M ES traded with 219,000 futures coming from Globex making the day session total only 1.2M.