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Our View

The ES traded up to 6718.50 and then sold off down to 6605.75 as the China tariff war picked up. It opened Tuesday’s regular session at 6634 then sold off down to 6593.25 at 9:45.

There have been many times when most traders thought the ES was going lower, and I am opposite, and when I think I’m wrong, I get out fast, sometimes too fast, and I find out I was right too late. On yesterday’s call about buying the open or the early weakness, I zeroed in on the Globex low, and I made my call. Here’s what I was saying:

While I may not trade it correctly sometimes, I still think my trading floor feel for direction is intact. I lost 6 points on my trade.

After the low, the NQ started to bid up, then a big tech/AI buy program hit that pushed the NQ up 579.25 points from 24,421.00 up to 25,044.25. In the process, the ES pushed back up to 6720.25 at 12:52, two ticks above Monday’s high.

After the high, the ES pulled back to the 6698.75 level and then rallied up to a new RTH high at 6722.75 at 1:50 as the tech buying continued after the Powell headlines. After a pullback to the 6700 level, the ES traded up to a new high at 6722.50 at 1:30, then chopped in a 10-point range from 6708.00 to 6718.00 for the next hour and a half. It then moved back up to the high and pulled back to the 6710 level at 3:10, rallied back up to 6771.50, and then started going offered as several threatening Trump/China headlines hit.

The ES tanked down to 6665.75 at 3:45, popped up to 6684.25 at 3:48, and traded 6886 on the 4:00 cash close. It then rallied to 6693.75 at 4:03, sold off down to 6672.00 at 4:20, rallied to 6686.50 at 4:30, and settled at 6685.00, down 9.75 points or -0.15%.

The NQ settled at 24,756.25, down 166 points or -0.76%. Silver traded up to 52.50 and settled at 50.34, down 0.08%. Bitcoin made a low at 111,585 and settled at 114,410, down 3,330 points or 2.80%. Crude oil traded down to 57.29 and settled at 58.18, down 1.51%. The ZB (bond futures) made a high at 118.75 and settled at 118.12, up 0.16%

Like I always say, everything is moving — and not all in a good way.

In the end, I think the key words are VOLATILITY Pick Up. In terms of the ES’s overall tone, it was firm all day until Trump started dropping tape bombs. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, volume was higher at 2.09 million contracts — had the ES and NQ not sold off, it would’ve been around 1.6 million.

Wars Driven by Commodities

Every major world war starts over commodities.

Anglo-Dutch Wars (1652–1674)
Story: England and the Dutch Republic, both maritime powers, clashed over control of global trade routes and colonies producing spices and sugar. England’s Navigation Acts restricted Dutch shipping, sparking three wars.
Commodities: Spices, sugar, trade routes
Other Factors: Mercantilism, naval rivalry

War of the Spanish Succession (1701–1714)
Story: A European power struggle over control of Spain’s empire, rich in silver and colonial trade.
Commodities: Silver, colonial trade
Other Factors: Dynastic disputes, balance of power

Seven Years’ War (1756–1763)
Story: Britain and France fought globally for colonial dominance.
Commodities: Sugar, fur, trade goods
Other Factors: Imperial ambitions, alliances

Opium Wars (1839–1860)
Story: Britain waged war to force China to open ports after opium bans.
Commodities: Opium, tea, trade access
Other Factors: Sovereignty, cultural clashes

World War I (1914–1918)
Story: Industrial powers competed for resources like coal and grain.
Commodities: Coal, steel, oil, grain
Other Factors: Alliances, nationalism

World War II (1939–1945)
Story: Japan sought oil and rubber; Germany sought farmland and oil.
Commodities: Oil, rubber, iron, food
Other Factors: Fascism, expansionism

Gulf War (1990–1991)
Story: Iraq invaded Kuwait for its oil fields.
Commodities: Oil
Other Factors: Regional power, debt

From Anglo-Dutch spice battles to the Gulf War over oil, commodities have fueled nine major wars. Is the U.S. heading for war with China? Recent Trump-Xi brinkmanship seems to be pointing that way, with rare earths causing the flashpoint. Trump took to the air last Friday after China imposed tight restrictions on rare earth material exports, and he wasn’t waiting for the APEC meeting to voice his displeasure.

Oct. 10: Trump threatened 100% tariffs on all Chinese goods and software export controls after Beijing’s rare earth curbs — the S&P and Nasdaq tanked 2%+ on fears of a full trade war revival.

Oct 11: He dialed back slightly.

Oct 12: Blamed “Chinese hardlines” and posted on Truth Social: “Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine! Highly respected President Xi just had a bad moment. The USA wants to help China, not hurt it!!!” — sparking a market rebound.

Oct 13: Trump-Xi APEC meeting in South Korea (Oct 31–Nov 1) still on track despite doubts. Bessent urges de-escalation, calling tariffs a potential off-ramp, while working-level talks continue in Madrid.

Oct 14: New tariffs hit imported lumber, timber, kitchen cabinets, and upholstered furniture (many from China), signaling wider retaliation. China begins “special port fees” on U.S.-linked ships (exempting Chinese-built ones), mirroring earlier U.S. maritime duties.

At the Argentina summit, Trump labeled China’s soybean halt an “economically hostile act,” vowing measures to aid farmers amid a “financial crisis.” USTR Jamieson Greer said the 100% tariff (Nov 1) hinges on China’s rare earth response. Beijing vows “countermeasures” if the U.S. doesn’t fold, accusing Washington of hypocrisy and “provocative” blacklists.

Soybeans top Trump’s agenda, with farmers urging a deal. Analysts say Xi is betting Trump will “chicken out” to protect stock markets.

Not war — yet. But this rare earth–software–soybean clash, fusing security and economics, risks derailing the TikTok ownership framework (Sept 15) and the August truce. I think Xi sees weakness as Trump continues to apply his Art of the Deal extremes. APEC could either stabilize or explode ties before the Nov 10 tariff deadline.

All of this is part of a pain game — who can inflict the most pain on the other. My concern is how out of sync the U.S. is, and how it’s going to get out of it.

On Tap

Our View

I was long 5 ES and got out at a loss — and not long after that, the Trump headlines hit. It really feels like these announcements are timed to inflict maximum pain, and then they bounce. I just don’t know how all these big drops and pops are going to go away anytime soon.

HandelStats: Rich Miller

Market Insight — October 15, 2025

Yesterday’s attempt to retest the lows failed, with price rebounding to close above 6669, the key level that has been defining the current trend shift. Holding and reclaiming this critical area signals renewed upward momentum.

Overnight, the market continued to strengthen, maintaining trade above that pivotal zone—putting new highs back on target.

I’ll be discussing the key upside targets and structural implications in more detail live in the room later this morning.

— HandelStats.com

Guest Posts — Polaris Trading Group

S&P 500 (ES)

Prior Session was Cycle Day 3: “The Fear, The Flow, and The FOMO”

The PTG trading floor opened to a buzzing hum of volatility, data hiccups, and a splash of philosophical depth — a perfect Tuesday cocktail. With Cycle Day 3 on deck, the day’s rhythm called for a morning lean-down before bulls could even dream of a reclaim.

Upside target zone between 6710 – 6720 rejected buyers on multiple attempts throughout the session. The lower D-Level Money Box Zone (6620 – 6600) was “Key Support” attracting buyers on each probe into this zone.

Another late day Trump Tariff Bomb (TTB) added some “cooking oil” spice to the price action. 🙂

Range was 129 handles on 1.721M contracts exchanged

For greater detail of how this day unfolded, click on the Trading Room RECAP 10.14.25 link.

…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1

Transition into Cycle Day 1: Today begins a new cycle with the average decline projection zone between (6685) and (6666).

Intraday swings remain “spunky” offering plenty of trading opportunities as long as you stay “aligned.”

As we stated in previous briefings, the market has entered a period with elevated volatility, driven by TTB’s, 0DTE crosscurrents. This is a trader’s dream…Embrace the current price action, but always adhere to your plan.

Current range edges are defined by 6600 – 6720 with 6660 as the Fulcrum Pivot.

Of course, nothing changes for PTG…Simply follow your plan. Take only Triple A setups and manage the $risk. ALWAYS HAVE HARD STOP-LOSSES in-place on the exchange.

PTG’s Primary Directive (PD) is to ALWAYS STAY IN ALIGNMENT with the DOMINANT FORCE.

As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading. 

Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 6670+-, initially targets 6710 – 6715 zone. 

Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 6670+-, initially targets 6635 – 6625 zone.

PVA High Edge = 6720    PVA Low Edge = 6651         Prior POC = 6614

Thanks for reading, PTGDavid

MiM and Daily Recap

Intraday Recap

The ES began the overnight Globex session near 6691.00 and traded up to an overnight high of 6718.50 around 20:30 before sellers stepped in. The futures rolled over, producing a sequence of lower highs and lower lows through the early morning hours. The initial pullback from 6718.50 down to 6688.00 set the tone, followed by a deeper decline to 6605.75 by 08:50, marking the overnight low. This completed a full 112.75-point swing (-1.67%) from high to low during Globex before stabilizing into the 9:30 open.

The regular session opened at 6634.00, recovering modestly from the overnight weakness. Early buyers drove a swift rally to 6722.50 by 13:50, lifting the ES 129.25 points (+1.96%) from the morning low and fully reclaiming the prior session’s breakdown zone. That move established the day’s high of 6722.50 before momentum stalled. A minor lower high at 6717.50 printed at 15:00, followed by a sharp selloff to 6666.00 at 15:45, erasing 56.50 points (-0.84%) from the peak. The index found support into the close and finished the session at 6686.00, up 52.00 points (+0.78%) on the day. The cleanup session that followed was muted, settling at 6685.00 with light volume.

Overall, the full session spanned from a low of 6593.25 to a high of 6722.50, a 129.25-point range. Volume reached 2.09 million contracts, with the regular session accounting for 1.63 million. The full-session close at 6685.00 represented a modest 6.00-point decline (-0.09%) from the prior day’s settlement and an 8.50-point drop (-0.13%) from the previous cash close, underscoring the market’s indecision following a volatile two-day rebound.

Market tone and notable factors:

Despite early weakness in Globex, the regular session showed strong intraday recovery led by broad buying across defensives, energy, and industrials. Consumer Defensive (+$202M), Energy (+$141M), and Communication Services (+$119M) sectors led the buy imbalances, while Technology (-$713M) and Consumer Cyclical (-$179M) remained under selling pressure. The Market-on-Close data reflected a mild sell imbalance of $389M, with 53% of symbols on the buy side but overall weighted direction at -53.3%, signaling light sell skew into the bell. The imbalance never reached the ±66% threshold, though the S&P 500 segment registered a notable -54.5% lean. Sector rotation out of tech and into defensives helped temper afternoon declines, contributing to the stable close.

The day’s tone leaned neutral-to-cautiously bullish, with dip buyers defending support near 6660 and sustained rotation into non-tech sectors. While the afternoon imbalance weighed modestly on prices, the ES held its gains into the 4:00 close, suggesting continued resilience after recent volatility. Looking ahead, traders will monitor whether 6720 acts as resistance or whether the 6660 support can continue to attract buyers amid uncertainty tied to Fed policy and ongoing shutdown headlines.

How to read the MIM

Technical Edge 

Fair Values for October 15, 2025:

Daily Market Recap 📊

For Tuesday, October 14, 2025

• NYSE Breadth: 68% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 65% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 64% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 66% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 61% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 62% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 86 / 64
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 240 / 116
• NYSE TRIN: 0.93
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.84

Weekly Market  📈

For the week ending Friday, October 10, 2025

• NYSE Breadth: 37% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 52% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 48% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 19% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 30% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 25% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 313 / 149
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 814 / 274
• NYSE TRIN: 0.39
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.39

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Trading Room Summaries

Polaris Trading Group Summary – Tuesday, October 14, 2025

Tuesday’s session featured sharp execution early, a powerful midday rally, and a sudden headline-driven selloff late in the day that reminded everyone why stops matter. Beyond the price action, it was a deeply valuable day for trader psychology, with members sharing honest insights into managing fear and mindset in volatile conditions.

Morning – Clean Setups & Patient Execution

Lesson: Patience + process pays. Clean setups after structure confirmation produced high R:R entries, especially after the backtest of key levels.

Mid-Morning to Midday – Masterclass in Trader Psychology

In one of the most open and constructive mindset discussions in recent memory, members dove into:

Lesson: The true edge isn’t always technical—mental capital, emotional resilience, and community support were the day’s hidden alpha.

Midday Rally – Market Rips on Fed Pivot

Lesson: Key levels + news catalyst = powerful directional moves. PTG’s DTS levels continue to prove reliable.

Late-Day Whiplash – TTB Strikes Again

Lesson: Don’t get lulled into complacency after a trend day. TTB (Tweet Time Bombs) are always a risk, especially late in session.

Key Trade Wins

Top Takeaways

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Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.

Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!