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Below is a hodgepodge of chatroom posts and tweets from Friday. It is a great example of just trading the range and having a good feel for what was going on.

While we may have a good trading plan, so do the institutional players. As I have always said, there are three parts to the trading day: 1) What happens on Globex, 2) What happens after the 9:30 ET futures open, and 3) What happens in the last hour, the hour of power from 3:00 to 4:00 when the boys with the better seats show up.

As we all know, I’m not a sophisticated trader or writer. I used to use Google Docs, but have been back and forth between using that and my Gmail to write the OP. As we all know, it’s about finding the fastest and easiest way to do things, but sometimes it’s at the risk of what you are trying to accomplish. It works until it doesn’t. Late Thursday night and early Friday morning, I somehow did what I have done several times in the past — I accidentally lost the entire Opening Print, and it happened to be one of my more colorful pieces. I fell asleep early, then woke up at 1:30 am, completed the OP, and sent it off to be edited. It never made it to its email destination, and it didn’t show up in the sent or saved draft sections of Gmail, thus, an early morning redo. I just wonder how many hours I have spent doing the OP and how many times I have lost one. Trust me… a lot.

At 11:49 AM on Friday, the ES was stuck in a 5480.25 to 5524.75 trading range with ‘only’ 633k contracts traded, meaning it’s ‘thin to win.’ I told the MrTopStep chat that we would not go back down to the low and that the ES would rally to 5540 to 5560. It was the Week 4 options expiration, and I encouraged buying the 0DTEs. I’m not an option trader, but I like the zero date options — you take your shot, you know your risk and time frames, and if you can catch the hour of power, 3:00 ET to 4:00, you can make several times your risk. If you are wrong, the position is toast and you’re done for the day or week (Fridays are the biggest volume days).

Kinda like the guy that went to the casino: he made money early, wants to keep his winnings, but takes one last shot before heading to the doors. He’s up $800 bucks, bets half his winnings to double or triple his daily gain. Again, he knows exactly what he is risking — now it’s all about timing. If he hits it, he triples his bet. If not, the position turns to dust. Volume prints go to only a few contracts traded and then bounce 10 points in 1 minute.

I know I’m not perfect, and I know I’m going to be wrong, but all I care about is that my profits are larger than my losing trades at the end of the day. I’m constantly scanning for when the volume shifts from selling to buying or vice versa. I like trading against too long or too short conditions and waiting for when the volume flips. Sometimes these flips actually end up being a high or low. What tool do I use? The best indicator… your eyes.

So let’s see how this played out. I reposted my view in the chat when a few traders were thinking we would head back down. But you know what? That’s what the markets are all about — someone who wants to buy and someone who wants to sell.

As I said in Friday’s OP, I didn’t think we would take out the 5599.75 high, but I think this week could be the next leg up as several big tech names report earnings on Wednesday and Thursday. Wednesday is the last trading day of the month, and Thursday is the first trading day of May. Meaning there will be some end-of-the-month and beginning-of-the-month rebalancing, mixed in with some big economic and earnings reports.

There are no scheduled economic reports today, but there are 19 economic releases this week that include Retail Sales, CPI, PPI, and Jobs Friday. No scheduled Fed speak. 13-week and 26-week Treasury Bills today, a 5-year TIPS auction ($25 billion) on April 30, and likely 2-year, 5-year, or 7-year note auctions on April 29 or 30. The Quarterly Refunding Announcement on April 30 will provide further clarity on sizes and schedules.

Here are a few posts I put in the chat:

IMPRO : Dboy : (9:46:03 AM) : buy the pullbacks
IMPRO : Dboy : (9:49:26 AM) : buy near the Globex low
IMPRO : Dboy : (10:39:05 AM) : paid 5398.5 on 1 ES
IMPRO : Dboy : (10:58:35 AM) : 79.75 stop on 1 ES, going to sell it at 40 late in the day if I don’t get it earlier
IMPRO : Dboy : (11:07:27 AM) : buy 0DTE on the drops / going up
IMPRO : Dboy : (11:07:33 AM) : that was the low
IMPRO : Dboy : (11:07:40 AM) : not going back down there
IMPRO : Dboy : (11:08:07 AM) : 5540-5560 by the end of the day
IMPRO : Dboy : (11:08:37 AM) : every pullback last 3 days has been bought
IMPRO : Dboy : (11:10:57 AM) : should take out the day high then look for smaller pullbacks
IMPRO : Dboy : (11:11:07 AM) : slow burn
IMPRO : Dboy : (11:11:37 AM) : The data confirms that 0DTE options volume has not only increased recently but has reached unprecedented levels. The growth from 47%…
IMPRO : Dboy : (11:13:45 AM) : offering 1 ES at 40.00
IMPRO : Dboy : (11:59:08 AM) : Buy the 0DTEs late when I come back for the MIM trade

IMPRO : Dboy : (1:03:28 PM) : flat 35.25
IMPRO : Dboy : (1:04:26 PM) : paid 36.25 on 1 ES
IMPRO : Dboy : (1:07:16 PM) : I think we are at or near the early high of this push offering 1 at 41.00
IMPRO : Dboy : (1:07:48 PM) : flat 40.00
IMPRO : Dboy : (Fri:1:09:14 PM) : sold 1 ES 5539.5 short 6 bucks stp
IMPRO : Dboy : (Fri:1:11:53 PM) : next 15 points are down from 5541
IMPRO : Dboy : (Fri:1:14:15 PM) : 19,500 NQ
IMPRO : Dboy : (Fri:1:15:04 PM) : has to be a shakeout, looks too easy being long up here
IMPRO : Dboy : (Fri:1:16:05 PM) : 64 pt rally
IMPRO : Dboy : (Fri:1:16:43 PM) : if not here a little higher it will be rest time
IMPRO : Dboy : (Fri:1:17:30 PM) : NQ pop
IMPRO : Dboy : (Fri:1:17:42 PM) : flat ES

The ES traded up to 5554.50, right into the 5540-5560 level, up to 5555.75. Like always, I got out a few points early but then started pressing the sell side, and just like clockwork, This headline hit at 1:20 while Trump was in his jet on the way to Rome:

Trump: Won’t drop China tariffs unless they give us something.

That was all the markets had to hear and the ES dropped 43 points down to the 5510 area, which I got long into, because I think the options expiration is a buy. The ES just bounced up to 5551.75

IMPRO : Dboy : (Fri:1:40:56 PM) : i was early
IMPRO : Dboy : (1:57:09 PM) : paid 15.5 on 1 ES
IMPRO : Dboy : (2:03:37 PM) : all about the options expo
IMPRO : Dboy : (2:03:56 PM) : that was your official odt pickup
IMPRO : Dboy : (2:04:09 PM) : lows in now new highs
IMPRO : Dboy : (2:04:20 PM) : selloff was fuel
IMPRO : Dboy : (2:07:03 PM) : long 1 at 15.5, 09.75 stop it’s all in the options now Trump going to get outgunned by the ES and NQ, going back up to new highs
IMPRO : Dboy : (2:07:56 PM) : that was the 0odte grab bag, Trump tweeting on his way to Rome
IMPRO : Dboy : (2:08:12 PM) : zero control
IMPRO : Dboy : (2:10:16 PM) : PitBull, did you follow the instructions? or were you a bad bull?
IMPRO : Dboy : (2:10:45 PM) : this has option squeeze written all over it
IMPRO : Dboy : (2:35:56 PM) : GOING LIVE RETWEET PLEASE

MRTOPSTEP GOING LIVE 90 MINUTES TO GO, TELL YOUR MOTHER, YOUR GRANDFATHER, YOUR SISTER, YOUR BROTHER, THE ELECTRICIAN, THE PLUMBER AND THE POLITICIAN !!!

While on Twitter I told some stories and told the nearly 2k viewers that the ES was going up to buy the 0DTEs.

IMPRO : Dboy : (3:59:56 PM) : flat 50.5
IMPRO : Dboy : (4:00:17 PM) : that was a nice 1 lot and we did make a new high at 5662.25!!!!!!
MPRO : Dboy : (4:05:20 PM) : have a good one all

IMPRO : BTS : (5:01:02 PM) : Cleanup Close: ES1 @ 5552.50 H:5562.25 L:5545.50 O:5548.25 O₂C:4.25(0.08%) $C₂C:42.00(0.76%)

Like I said last week, we have an overload of economic reports and 180 S&P 500 companies are expected to report quarterly financial results, headlined by Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Coca-Cola (KO), Eli Lilly (LLY), Meta (META), and Microsoft (MSFT). The last trading day and the first trading day of the new month will be mixed in with 12 economic releases ranging from ADP, PCE, PMI, and ISM, just to name a few, and that does not include the April jobs report on Friday.

One of the problems with Trump is that he is under the gun to get the trade deals done before the 90 days is up. My own opinion is that it’s impossible to get all of them done, and the administration will concentrate on Europe, Canada, Mexico, and the big one, China. Many believe Trump has degraded the U.S. on the global stage, and part of the drop in the dollar is that more countries are cutting deals with China. Over the last few days, we have been led to believe that the U.S. and China are making progress. But — and there is always a but with Trump — Trump told TIME magazine that talks were taking place and that Chinese President Xi Jinping had called him and that trade negotiations were underway, which he told reporters as he was leaving the White House on Friday morning for Rome to attend the funeral of Pope Francis, but Beijing denied any talks were taking place.

“China and the U.S. are NOT having any consultation or negotiation on #tariffs,” China shot back in a foreign ministry statement posted by the Chinese Embassy in the U.S. “The U.S. should stop creating confusion.”

I think he’s dug himself into a hole, and some countries are not falling for the art of the deal-maker’s offers!

Our lean: I don’t think the rally is over: 5620, 5750, then 5800-5850. This is all about extremes — push it down further than it should have gone, and then push it higher than it should go. I don’t think this happens as fast as the last 435.25 blast up. Maybe into the earnings, and if we get a good PCE and jobs number, but I’m sure there will be some bumps in the road.

With the ES up so much and the way the ES went out, I think you can sell a gap up. My problem with this recently is the gaps have worked for 10 to 15 points, but if you don’t cover fast you end up missing the long side, and that’s where the money train is now.

Will it last? I hope so, but Trump better get his shit together. In the past, it took months to get one trade deal done. He has 90.

MiM and Daily Recap

The overnight Globex session opened at 5529.00 and saw a modest drift lower, reaching a pre-cash-session low of 5486.75. The cash session began at 5510.50 and initially tested higher ground, pushing up to 5524.75 at 9:39 AM. However, sellers soon pushed back, dragging the market down to 5490.25 at 10:00 AM. Buyers responded quickly, lifting ES back to the opening highs, reaching 5523.25 by 10:12 AM.

After the recovery, selling pressure reemerged, pulling the market down to a deeper morning low of 5480.25 at 10:30 AM. A notable recovery unfolded next, with prices rallying sharply up to 5518.50 at 11:24 AM before briefly retracing down to 5500.00 by 11:36 AM. From there, momentum strengthened considerably. Buyers lifted the market steadily through midday, culminating in a new session high of 5554.50 at 1:27 PM. This 54.00-point surge from the 11:36 AM low highlighted strong afternoon participation.

After topping out mid-afternoon, ES faced significant profit-taking pressure. Prices dropped sharply to a new low at 5311.25 by 1:54 PM, representing the session’s deepest pullback with a 43.25-point loss (-0.78%). Buyers stepped in once again, driving ES higher into the 2:00 PM hour.

The afternoon saw a series of lower highs and lower lows, suggesting a choppy, consolidative tone. ES hit 5550.75 at 2:03 PM before slipping to 5537.25 at 2:51 PM. Another brief rally attempt reached 5531.50 at 3:39 PM before fading again.

Despite the midday turbulence, ES finished the regular session on firmer footing. The market closed at 5548.25, gaining 37.75 points (+0.69%) from the prior day’s close of 5510.50. Including the full 24-hour session, ES closed at 5552.50, up 23.50 points (+0.43%) from the previous close.

The overall tone for the session leaned bullish, characterized by early volatility but strong midday buying interest. Notably, the regular session posted a healthy 0.69% gain despite the deep midday pullback, signaling underlying resilience.

Volume during the full session reached 1,266,517 contracts, with 977,470 of those trading during the regular session. Globex volume came in at 238,629, reflecting modest overnight interest.

The Market-on-Close (MOC) imbalance data showed a final tally of $1.186 billion to the buy side. However, the symbol imbalance registered at -53.1%, indicating a mild tilt toward sell pressure in terms of the number of stocks affected. Since the imbalance percentages stayed well below the ±66% threshold, the MOC flows were not extreme enough to materially shift the final print.  The NAZ on the close was a stronger buy than the broader markets. 

Heading into the next session, the market appears to be carrying positive momentum, but caution remains warranted given the persistent intraday volatility and afternoon choppiness.

How to read the MIM

Technical Edge

Fair Values for April 28, 2025:

Daily Breadth Data 📊

Weekly Breadth Data 📈

Room Summaries:

Polaris Trading Group Summary Friday, April 25, 2025

Overall Day Summary: Friday was a Capital Preservation Friday early on, but it evolved into a very positive trading day for PTG members, particularly thanks to key breakout setups identified and executed by PTGDavid. The session was initially slow with “snaps and traps” and a lot of range-bound action, but patience paid off beautifully into the afternoon.

Key Highlights and Positive Trades:

Lessons Learned and Reminders:

Vibe of the Room: The room was upbeat and professional, with members like Blibby71, Bruce F, and others contributing observations. There was camaraderie, solid teamwork, and everyone celebrated the afternoon breakout success together.

Calendars

Economic

Important events for the rest of the week:

S&P 500 Earnings

Recent

Full MTS Calendars

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Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.

Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!