“If things are advancing as rapidly as we hear from OpenAI and Anthropic, it’s going to be a problem. Investors are starting to go after any of the companies that could be disrupted, which is all kinds of software application names.”

Our Lean

I can’t say that I knew the ES and NQ were going to sell off like they did yesterday, but it didn’t take long to figure out. What I failed to mention is what I have been saying for the last few weeks: NQ selling shows up on most or all the gap-ups, but this time there was no bounce.

I was selling when the ES went up on Monday and buying when it went down yesterday. My timing has definitely been off the last few days; Monday’s rally had me thinking there would be follow-through on the upside, which was way off.

Resistance Levels (Supply Zones)

Current Price

6,946.25 (as of Feb 4, 2026)

Support Levels (Demand Zones)

 Polaris Trading Group

Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1

Cycle Day 1 Playbook: Reload Longs on Decline

The market already did Cycle Day 1’s work—on Cycle Day 3.

An aggressive liquidation flushed price beyond the average decline typically reserved for CD1. That’s not a typo. But these aren’t the markets your daddy traded. Not even close.

This tape is driven by algorithmic buy/sell programs locked in self-reinforcing feedback loops—an unruly beast that must be constantly fed. Those who disrespect its nature, or worse, misalign with it, become the offering.

👉 Do not be the Feast for the Beast.
Stay aligned.

Cycle Day 1 downside projections have already been fulfilled and exceeded during the prior session’s liquidation. The late-day bounce merely squared some intraday exposure—it did nothing to alter the broader dynamic.

Volatility remains elevated and is likely to stay that way. That’s not a threat—that’s an opportunity. But only for those who stay disciplined, patient, and intentional.

Bottom Line

Stay sharp. Stay aligned. The beast rewards respect—and punishes impatience. 🐺📉📈

The Two Pillars of the PTG Trade Plan

1️⃣ Stay Aligned with the Dominant Force
Think current, not prediction.

When price structure establishes a support zone, we don’t argue—we align. Bias shifts to a long-lean, and we patiently stalk entries via Stackers or the first PB ATR / Discount.
When structure flips? Same process, opposite direction. No emotion. No hero trades. Just flow.

Picture a surfer:
You don’t fight the wave—you paddle, position, and let gravity do the work.

2️⃣ Trade from Statistical Range Extremes
Welcome to the wabbit hunt 🐇

PKB entries inside the D-Level Money Box (DLMB) Zones live here. And let’s be clear—this is not counter-trend trading. This is timing.

When range values stretch too far, Market Makers don’t chase—they set traps. Stops get flushed. Liquidity gets harvested. Price snaps back like a rubber band.

This is reversionary trading inside range-type rhythms—
high accuracy, repeatable, and ruthless when executed correctly.

Cue the imagery:
Lights dim. Liquidity pools glow. Stops line up like dominos.
M&M’s smile. Click. Run the stops.

The Toolbox Matters—But the Hand Using It Matters More

The PTG Trader Toolbox has everything (yes, even the weird wrench you didn’t know you needed).
Your job isn’t to use everything.
Your job is to master the right tools for your plan.

The PTG Member’s Area is stacked—dozens of educational videos, real trade examples, and market walkthroughs designed to compress learning curves and eliminate guesswork.

And when the chart gets loud?
PTGDavid is always in the room.
Guiding. Grounding. Keeping traders on the right side of structure and statistics.

Cycle Day 1 isn’t about being right.
It’s about being ready.

Strap in. Manage risk.
And let volatility do what it does best. 💥📊

🎯 Cycle Day 1 Focus

Scenarios to consider for today’s trading. 

🟢 Bull Case

🔴 Bear Case

PVA High Edge = 6967    PVA Low Edge = 6899         Prior POC = 6942

Full DTS Briefing Report 

— PTG

From Jeff Hirsch Stock Trader’s Almanac

February has opened strongly but then reverses after President’s Day

February’s first trading day has been bullish for DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 1000 and 2000. Average gains on the first day over the most recent 21-year period (solid lines in above chart) range from 0.39% by DJIA to 0.78% by Russell 2000. However, after a strong opening day, positive momentum has tended to stall out until around the seventh or eighth trading days. From there until around the 12-trading day all five indexes have historically enjoyed gains. But those gains have not held with the indexes beginning to decline after Presidents’ Day through the end of February.

Midterm-year February performance (dotted lines in above chart) has taken a different trajectory with weakness typically prevailing until around the sixth trading day, but afterwards the major indexes have demonstrated strength through the end of February with some consolidation around monthly options expiration and/or Presidents’ Day holiday.

MOC Recap

The market-on-close auction opened with an immediate surge in buy-side interest, quickly establishing a strong positive imbalance across all major venues. By 15:51 ET, total net imbalance jumped to roughly $2.4B, driven by aggressive early buying that peaked above $4.5B before sell programs began to assert themselves. From that point forward, the auction transitioned into a more rotational profile, with buy pressure steadily bleeding off while sell interest rose into the final minutes.

Sector participation tells a clean story of where institutional money was leaning. Technology dominated the tape, finishing with over $830M net positive, despite heavy gross selling, signaling wholesale accumulation rather than passive rotation. Communication Services and Consumer Cyclical also showed strong directional conviction, both posting buy leans north of +80%, well above the +66% threshold that typically defines programmatic or fund-driven demand. Utilities quietly stood out as well, registering one of the highest percentage buy leans on the board, suggesting defensive allocation rather than short-term speculation.

On the flip side, Energy and Consumer Defensive were clear sources of supply. Energy’s -72% lean marks a decisive wholesale sell, consistent with end-of-day risk reduction rather than simple rebalancing. Consumer Defensive and Healthcare also skewed meaningfully lower, reinforcing the broader “risk-on within growth, risk-off within defensives” dynamic.

At the single-stock level, the auction was led by mega-cap tech. AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, AVGO, and META absorbed substantial buy flow, confirming that the Technology sector strength was driven by concentrated size, not breadth alone. Financials showed selective strength through JPM and MA, while Industrials’ participation was narrower but still constructive.

Into the close, overall market imbalance compressed as sell programs offset earlier buys, flipping briefly negative before stabilizing. The final read was not one of exhaustion, but of controlled distribution against strong prior demand — a textbook example of a directional open transitioning into late-stage rotation rather than a full unwind.

How to read the MIM

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