YES. I have skin in the game. I trade my own personal account. Sardine / Tuna / Billfish trades are for educational purposes only. I am NOT a futures broker and do not manage any accounts. It is my intent to show where trades may occur. What you do is up to you. You can follow my IDEAS to profit or loss. You determine trade size, when, where and how you trade. (CFTC) Futures is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest, know how much you can afford to lose.
NEWS / FUNDAMENTALS
After ending the previous session sharply lower, stocks showed a lack of direction over the course of the trading day on Wednesday. The major averages spent the day bouncing back and forth across the unchanged line before eventually closing mixed.
Yesterday's Technicial Review using
WB's Emini Clock and Wyckoff's Tape Reading Principles
Of all the days in the past few weeks, this day was the most uncertain. Did the day flip? Perhaps. At the open price does not choose a side. It's an S1 day so it's odds and probabilities. By 9:40 am price rallies for 10 minutes to 9:50 am. You can see a directional move shortly thereafter. 20 minutes later we are losing the open. By 10:15 am we've printed a lower low of day.
A small rally for 10 minutes is checked at the previous day low and close. 10 minutes later by 10:40 am the AM LOW is sealed. Now we have a spring from yesterday's low. 30 minutes later by 11:00 am price is challenging the low and close again. As some traders may have been getting short there, a grind up started with slightly higher highs and higher lows. An hour later at 12:00 pm price is still challenging being held at the low and close of the previous day.
It's now 12:30 pm as we are now challenging the current high of day. If you went short, you took some heat. Perhaps you gave up and got out. A grind up one later at 1:30 pm prints a new high of day.
In the next 30 minutes the market starts to balance getting ready for the Fed minutes release. Price sets a new high of day and quickly starts to sell off.
By 2:30 pm a new low of day is printed as a bid starts to renter the market. In the next 30 minutes at 3:00 pm price trades sideways a closes slightly off the lows.
The Fed minutes gave us some slight term volatility but it didn't change anything. We had the NFP, CPI, PPI and Retail numbers. Traders just keep moving it to the next news catalyst. Perhaps today's Job numbers or Friday's shiney shiney.
good morning today is SERIES S2H and the SPILL is down.
News: GDP & Jobless Claims & Chicago Fed National Activity Index at 8:30, EIA Natural Gas Report at 10:30, EIA Petroleum Status Report at 11:00. All time EST.
Last Night: After Settle price gets a bid and rallies just below the top of Fed minutes range.
Edge: Price / Trend / Clock is not showing a clear path to victory. Even today may flip.
7/8/9 AM Trade: Trading in a tight range just under CASH high.
Today: I'm still leaning for the bulls. Let's see if they can flip it.
Globex 18 handle trading range on 178 K volume.
Bulls: need to retake the 4044 want to take the 4076 handle.
Bears: need to retake the 4000, want to take the 3984 handle.
Cycle Bias: Potential favored to bear. (it could flip)
Tone: VIX trading at 21.28
Shape of the day: Second day of cycle. Price still has not show a clear trend.
Honing: Spill down, AM HIGH, (no mid am), lunch low, mid pm high, LAST HOUR LOW
Pre Opening: Little overbought. Could come in a bit to the 4010.
The clock is used for timing your entries and exits. Position long at the lows exit at the highs. Get short at the highs buy in at the lows. When the trend is in, WB's clock is your friend!
Offing Events: War in Ukraine is starting to gear up for full scale kinetic war. And now we have Leopards in the Fray. And now Jets (F-16's). Look for Spring Equnoix as demarkation war / no war. Cost of Inflation is raising $7 eggs and climbing. And the flow entering from Southern border.
Your edge is a series of trades, not just one trade or one day.
Dates: Mar 7 Worm Moon 7:40 am First day of Spring Mar 20 5:24 pm (all times est)
Last Friday's Opening print: https://mrtopstep.com/from-the-desk-of-wyckoff-trader-58/