WyckoffTrader-AMTurn-04052024
YES. I have skin in the game. I trade my own personal account. Sardine / Tuna / Billfish trades are for educational purposes only. I am NOT a futures broker and do not manage any accounts. It is my intent to show where trades may occur. What you do is up to you. You can follow my IDEAS to profit or loss. You determine trade size, when, where and how you trade. (CFTC) Futures is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest, know how much you can afford to lose.
NEWS / FUNDAMENTALS
(Reuters)
Stocks turned in a strong performance throughout much of the trading day on Thursday but came under substantial pressure in the latter part of the session. The major averages plummeted in the final two hours of trading, ending the day sharply lower.
Yesterday's Technical Review using
WB's Emini Clock and Wyckoff's Tape Reading Principles
It's a good day when you learn something new. It's a great day when you learn new twice. Then yesterday in the market was a great day. The bulls. Oh they droped the soap. I'm not sure they even showed up to play. Overnight Globex took price up to the R2 Floor trader pivot. That's the range of the previous day plus the pivot.
Traders were asking themselves what was the news. Why is price up so high. At all time highs? Will, in a few hours they still would not know. I then knew is that 6 Fed speakers were schedule to speak. What could go wrong you ask? If you traded yesterday, you all ready know!
Just using back of the napkin market theory, most traders felt once price retraced Globex range it would probally get a bid and the previous day's high. It did not. Then perhaps at the halfway retracement of yesterday's range? It did not!
Then perhaps it would get a bid at the priar day Tuesday low? It did not. Surely the weekly S1 pivot would high it? IT did not. That body was in motion and no body was going to slow it down.
If you are a fan of that moving average cross, then you're going to love today. Price lost the 10 day, 20 day. I believe it's called a moving average cross. Wycoff was not a fan of that since they drew their charts by hand. Him and Ellott was like cats and dogs.
I would be more bearish providing today was not the Jobs number day. To me it's like they shook all the weak hands out. It's a strong technical position. If the jobs go South then will say may the market. Time will tell.
Wyckoff Trader,
P.S. If you've read this analysis, you might be curious when the best time to consider a position:
Price sold through several levels of support during the day in question. The trader describes how price broke through the R2 pivot level, the previous day's high, the halfway retracement of the previous day's range, the previous day's low, and the weekly S1 pivot level. These levels could be considered potential support levels, and the fact that price broke through them suggests that they did not hold as support.
In this case, a seasoned day trader looking to short the eMini futures market might have considered entering a short position as price broke through these levels of support. This would have allowed the trader to capitalize on the downwards momentum in the market. However, it's important to note that entering a short position in a rapidly falling market can be risky, as there is a higher likelihood of a reversal or rebound. Therefore, it would have been important for the trader to carefully manage their risk and consider using appropriate risk management techniques, such as setting stop-loss orders or using position sizing strategies.
Additionally, the trader notes that the day was "Jobs number day," which could refer to the release of employment data. This type of economic data can have a significant impact on financial markets, and it's possible that the trader was hesitant to enter a short position in the face of potential market-moving news.
Overall, a seasoned day trader looking to short the eMini futures market might have considered entering a short position as price broke through levels of support, but it would have been important for the trader to carefully manage their risk and stay informed about potential market-moving events.
It's also worth noting that the trader's own bias and emotions can play a role in decision making, as mentioned in the text. Therefore, it's important for traders to be aware of their own biases and to have a solid trading plan in place to help mitigate the influence of emotions on their decisions.
Be sure to use a stop with every trade placed to help mitigate potential losses, and only trade with risk capital that can be afforded to lose.
Additionally, it is important to keep in mind that the market can change quickly and what was a good trade opportunity at one point may no longer be valid at another. It is essential to use risk management techniques such as stop losses and position sizing to protect your capital.
With that started here are the "PROSE and THE NUMBAHS"
good morning today is SERIES S1L with the spill odds up.
News: Employment Situation & Susan Collins Speaks at 8:30, Thomas Barkin Speaks at 9:15, Lorie Logan Speaks at 11:00, Michelle Bowman Speaks at 12:15. All times EST.
Last Night: See Actionalble Trade Plan above.
Edge: Alog's ran this down on news of FED and Oil. Strong technical position. Weak hands to Strong. Let's see how deep their pockets are.
7/8/9 AM: Price has been slowly creaping up setting the high water market just under 5220 handle.
Today: Could see a move up to regain the 5236 volume
Bulls Want: 20, 36, 51
Bears Want: 10, 97, 84
Globex: 28 handle trading range on 208 volume.
Cycle Bias: Favored to the bull.
Tone: VIX trading at 16.21
Shape of the day: Start of a new cycle on the end of the week on a jobs number. Price will need to choose direction.
Honing: Spill odds up, loupie loop, LAST HOUR ODDS LOW.
Bill Fish (4H/4D) Forced to sell at 2:00 pm. OUT
Tuna (30m 1+D) Forced to sell at 2:00 pm. OUT
Sardine (5M-1D) Was catching a falling knife all the way down. OUT.
Pre Opening: Just after the number price tried to probe the CASH low and then held at the 5200 big even.
The clock is used for timing your entries and exits. Position long at the lows exit at the highs. Get short at the highs buy in at the lows. When the trend is in, WB's clock is your friend!
Your edge is a series of trades, not just one trade or one day.
Dates: February 24 Snow Moon 7:30 a.m. Spring Equinox March 20 5:24 pm (all times est)
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