Issue 1,750 – Copyright, 2024, by Wyckoff AM Trader
The market opened as a buy with a budge from the first 10 minutes. What looked like a Gap up turned into a gap and crap. On the S4H day we have three doors opened to us. Normal. A Wedge Zoom. A Link Stink. The door was shut on the Normal after price lost the open. That left us with the Wedge Zoom and Link Stink.
The Wedge Zoom gives one hope (if they are a bull) as the potential for a rally from the PEON close. Usually from 11:30 am as it should rally and recover the open. If the MID AM LOW is not found, then the potential for the mid pm low to rally into the LAST HOUR CLOSE.
Usually, you are looking for the market to bottom early or least the MID AM LOW. One could argue that price recovered the MID AM LOW as the rally marked a 5/8 recovery of the decline. If you look at the volume, it's low less than 1 MM. Not the strongest bull story.
Wouldn't call it a wedge zoom or a link a stink. The Link Stink usually is weak all during the day and into the close.
Best trade you could have hoped for was at 9:40 am where the current high of day was tested. Second best location as price offered past the opening print and entered back into Friday's range. The third after price lost the unchanged and started trading below.
You can see price trades back to the floor traders pivot but really, it's more of the halfway retracement of Friday's range.
PROSE and THE NUMBAHS
Good morning. Today is SERIES S1L Normal with the spill up.
News: Case-Shiller Home Price Index & FHFA House Price Index at 9:00, Consumer Confidence at 10:00. All times EST.
Last night: More of a repeat of yesterday's morning open with the exception of now it's all the lows. Price is trading in a tight range around the close of yesterday.
Edge: I'm seeing supply at the 5650 handle. Is it enough to hold the bulls back? We got GDP and PMI this week and soon Labor Day. Traders may be checking out getting ready for the holiday. (I said that yesterday) Looks like some supply checked the market just at the 5650 handle and sold off down to the 30 handle. This day could flip to the bullish side if the bears to not press within the first hour or so.
Globex: 23 plus handle trading range on 108K volume.
R2 5689.17
R1 5660.08
DAILY 5639.75
S1 5610.83
S2 5590.67
WEEK 5627.00
Cycle Bias: Favored to the bear.
Tone: VIX trading at 16.15
Shape of the day: Odds and probabilities.
Honing: Spill odds up, loupe loop, LAST HOUR ODDS LOW.
The clock is used to time your entries and exits. Position long at the lows, exit at the highs, get short at the highs, and buy-in at the lows. When the trend is in, WB's clock is your friend!
Your edge is a series of trades, not just one trade or one day.
Dates: August 19 Sturgeon Moon 2:26 9.m. Fall Equinox September 22 8:43 am (all times est)
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