Issue 1,757 – Copyright, 2024, by Wyckoff AM Trader
From Yesterday: Shape of the day: Potential to trend providing price clear and converts the 32 handle.
Honing: Spill up, AM LOW, (NO MID AM), lunch high, mid pm low, LAST HOUR HIGH.
Ideal: Price drifts back down to center time around 10:30 am and holds a bid. Potential for the lunch high to come in about 12:30 pm. And a dog leg for the mid pm low around 2:15 pm. Strong close with the high of day around 3:50 pm.
Well it was not that kind of day!
However, you do have the magic of just reversing it.
Like a Long Haul truck driver lost in Canda. You can't read the signs. You take a wrong turn. Just turn around 180 degrees. I talked about it a few Friday's ago. Yesterday was not a S2L day. It was an S2H day. Now, that makes today a S3H day. Who knows. Since 1972 it's been hard to predict the future…
Even the master himself Nastroudumce his predictions fell off after 1972. Many reasons for that but they are all rabbit hole!
Perhaps we can blame it on Algos. Perhaps we can blame it on AI. I had a detailed conversation about AI today. Imagine, I was talking about it seven years ago. And no one knew what I was talking about. Today one of the richest billionaire on the plannet is going to be heading it up.
Are we going to hang on to this 5500 big even? I talked about it twitching at the end of the bottom. I got long yesterday. I got cut a few times. I caught the bottom. It went down just a tad more. I extended the stop. Yes at the bottom. I had three to one ratio.
Sadly, that means if you have a 2 point stop best you can hope for in all conditions is 6 points. I had a little bit more stop. However with all that volume at bottom at 12:00 pm to 12:11 pm. And the market worked back up. I let my profit target stay. Normally, I'd move it up. Yesterday I did not.
So at the top of that little upthrust, at 2:51 pm the 5531.00 handle. That's a quarter a tick from that high! My trade was automatically exited.
All that volume and price just went 37.50 points higher. Yes that's just under an average day. And I wonder if yesterday's reference was different would the outcome been different? No AI involved just bracket order.
Perhaps I need to do a tick by tick video to describe how if you just used Wyckoff old school supply lines you'd known WHEN the best time to put that trade on. I know I should have and now I do!
If you do take the time you can see that at 10:30 am and the 10:45 am low a supply line will frame out the timing at the bottom where/when the Composite Man is ready to take this back up. Then perhaps that what Algo's look at to decide when to close out their shorts at 11:11 AM?
PROSE and THE NUMBAHS
Good morning. Today is SERIES S3H with the spill down.
News: Employment Situation at 8:30, John Williams Speaks at 8:45, Christopher Waller Speaks at 11:00, Baker Hughes Rig Count at 1:00. All times EST.
Globex: 49 plus handle trading range on 308 K volume.
Cycle Bias: Favored to the bear.
Tone: VIX trading at 19.90
Honing: Spill down, AM HIGH, MID AM LOW, lunch high, mid pm low, LAST HOUR HIGH.
The clock is used to time your entries and exits. Position long at the lows, exit at the highs, get short at the highs, and buy-in at the lows. When the trend is in, WB's clock is your friend!
Your edge is a series of trades, not just one trade or one day.
Dates: September 17 Harvest Moon 10:34 p.m. Fall Equinox September 22 8:43 am (all times Est)
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