Issue 1,768 – Copyright, 2024, by Wyckoff AM Trader
Yesterday's Recap: Good morning. Today is SERIES S4H with the spill down.
This day was more watching the "cutting up the man in the seat" getting cut up by the Alog's printing Benjimin's You can argue S4H which I had or S4L. It was more like shooting elephants with needles with the 800K volume. This is a challenging read. With Globex bulls getting checked at the 5780 and then dumping down to 5745 higher than the Friday's low.
Then the bulls getting checked again today at the 5781 handle which also is R1 then dumping down to the 5761 handle 20 handles higher than Globex low. Which also holds Fridays unchanged. The day finished about where it started.
Heard in the Chat: Not really anything; it was a nothign burger day!
I thought this was an interesting read:
According to data from Edward Jones, for a 65-year-old earning $100,000 annually, a savings goal between $1.05 million and $1.21 million is considered reasonable for maintaining your lifestyle throughout retirement. For those earning $200,000, the target is between $2.77 million and $3.17 million.
These figures are based on the assumption of retiring at 65, living until 92, and maintaining current spending levels.
So, putting the pen to the paper $100,000 X 30 years = $3,000,000 dollars. They saved 50 percent for 30 years?
Now the average saving per hone is $1,000 dollars per month times 12 months times 30 years is $360,000 dollars.
I'm just saying these numbers don't add up. Perhaps they used Hank's biker girls to give them an edge in the market for 30 years?
Back of the napkin a $1,200,000 home at 5.95% interest for 30 years is around $7K so let's fib it up to $8,000
That $8,000 per month times 12 months = $96,000 per year times 30 years is $2,880,000 total.
A $700,000 to $800,000 home mortgage is around $3,200 to $3,800,000 per month is $45,600 year times 30 years is $1,368,000
Even at half that amount ($2,880,000) is $1,400,000 total living just for the home. Sure, you've already had your home paid off but the average person lives in a home only 5 years and upsized or downsizes. If this case obviously downsized to a Del Web retirement community.
I'm not arguing but what is the inflation going be like if you've been earning $100,000 for 30 years ($3,000,000) but it will cost you much to live on / survive for the next 30 years when you've downsized your life and your quality of life? You'll have a home, but you'll not have a pot to XXXX in or food to prepare in your kitchen sink. If you Uber of Door dash your meals per couple is $55 X 7 = $385 week. Call it $377 times 4 weeks call it $1,508 per month times 12 months $18,096 times food cost. Times 30 years $542,880 that's just using fib numbers.
Now, assuming the husband was the major bread winner the wife's social security will be lower than the husbands. If she was a "trophy wife" and did not work as some might (that you see during the day / with nothing to do), then it's only the husbands social security. I'm not being one of those fancy words I'm just being a realist…
(The read was maintaining your lifestyle; folks don't cook at home anymore. They order in or eat out)
I guess you'll be eating those emergencies ration bags/foods that last for 30 years that you bought in 2020 through 2024. I think you can see where this is headed but no one's talking about it. What about the Children, the children know they are scared…
St. Louis Federal Reserve, personal savings only accounts for 4.1% of disposable personal income as of April 2023.
Cause your kids are not going to put you in a nursing home that bleads out Benjiman's when that could be in their account. Perhaps they can debate that… on the next talking points.
I do know one side of the coin wants to reduce the cost of energy by fifty-percent (50%). To jump start this economy.
MY read for the market, they are going to water board this thing till November. Pending upon which sides wins. It's either tank or sank…
Might be a hard road to hold but there is no really good reason for us to be up here right now. I'm not crying chicken little. We will need a catalyst. NVDA/AI is a played-out story from last July. Looking for the next shiny shiny. Fifty percent cut in energy costs I'll take that.
Sure, we got the FED cuts as the contract changed to December. That gave the market an intrinsic 40 points higher. What we are trading at these levels has never been traded before the masses. Even though it looks like we have. It was the September contract in July not the December contract that got the most volume…
And if we do go up, then the COMPOSITE MAN will shake out the weak hands before we do.
So, I'll say look ahead to 2026/2027, 2033, 2055; if one side wins, I sure hope not but if they do my lean for those years will not be muddy. I'm talking about a long game not the short game we are stuck playing and see played out every day.
The one I talked about and wrote it out in 2020 four years ago. I may add that back just so you have a reference.
As for the Electric Cars. If you read my rant two weeks ago – that's vapor ware. I wrote a ton of that code back in the DOT.COM bubble. Same game different decade. To my friend that wants to liquidate 50 percent of the $100,000 CD tomorrow and dump it in the market.
I'd say a bird in the hand is worth more than two in the bush . . . but that's why they call it a market!
PROSE and THE NUMBAHS
Good morning. Today is SERIES S1H with the spill odds down.
Today's News: Case-Shiller Home Price Index & Michelle Bowman Speaks & FHFA House Price Index at 9:00, Consumer Confidence at 10:00. All times EST.
Cycle Bias / Tone: Algo's overnight pushed it back up again. Bullish bias without volume but wouldn't that be bearish?
Honing (turns): Spill odds down, loupie loop, LAST HOUR ODDS HIGH.
9/23/24 ESZ2024
Open 5774.50
Hod 10:24 5784.50
Lod 13:02 5761.00
Settle 5775.75
Volume 842,781
DAILY 5773.75
R2 5797.25
R1 5786.50
S1 5763.00
S2 5750.25
WEEK 5736.00
The clock is used to time your entries and exits. Position long at the lows, exit at the highs, get short at the highs, and buy-in at the lows. When the trend is in, WB's clock is your friend!
Your edge is a series of trades, not just one trade or one day.
Dates: September 17 Harvest Moon 10:34 p.m. Fall Equinox September 22 8:43 am (all times Est)
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