Issue 1,794 – Copyright, 2024, by Wyckoff AM Trader
From yesterday: Good morning. Today is SERIES S1H with the spill odds down.
Ok, normally you flip the cycle after day 4. And yes, I should have flipped the cycle but I did not. SO, it was S1L day Wednesday!
It's holiday trade, so I'm very suspicious of what going in the market. Sure, I thought they were buying them the day before. Program large lot traders were buying in 100K baskets. Wednesday, they just left the market drift down.
Let's look at it through the eyes of the Composite Man.
Market opens under settle at the daily pivot. That indicates a high probability of a drift down or at least a test of the previous day's low. BY 10:00 AM price traded in a tight range and then set sail for south lands (an Australian market). Price drifts down. IF we lose the daily pivot then there is a high probability price will come into S1 as you noted yesterday S2 was S1 6020.75
Now the low of the previous day was Lod 10:28 6011.25
Not really a stretch 10 handle or more to get there. If price gets there then is going to be a spring of the previous days' low.
We get that. The next pivot is S2 S2 5999.50 (big even)
Notice price has been going down all morning. At 12:10 PM you can see a volume spike of 12:08 PM 7.2 K. This is usually what you need to see to stop a
slow drift down. And it's during the SLOG, so ALGO soup is on for you! Price recovers by 2:00 PM to the halfway retracement. That's about a 2-hour rally.
Notice at 11:00 AM 8K, 5K, and 4K came in to hold the bid. That would have been the low of the previous day. With the exception of the dip below (spring) price has held that level for 3 hours.
It's still a S1L day, but remember we have Thursday and Friday, Saturday, Sunday. And them Monday to get back on track all over the holiday on low volume. WB would say; "It's shooing elephants with needles on the L or H side of the cycle in this holiday trade."
You can see the test of the spring at 2:35 PM as price dips down on 4L lots on a spread of 1.5 range. This indicates the Composite Man is unable to find any supply below these levels. Looking for the next catalyst to set course and direction. Also, a second test of the spring at 3:41 PM on 5K lots.
WB would have called that the "Scare the Bull" as price dips down to shake out weak bulls and then the "Book Square" after 3:45 PM as "who wants to go home short on a Friday?" In this case, it was a thanksgiving weekend.
PROSE and THE NUMBAHS
Good morning. Today is SERIES S2L NORMAL with the spill up.
1. Last Night: As one might have expected Globex has gotten themselves over their skies. Back at trading at the highs 6050 and climbing. Can we take it out today? Odds are yes. Let's see what the boys in the better seats have to say first.
2. Large Size: At 7:10 AM 1K came in a lifted the offer at the 49 handle. And at 7:31 AM also on the 49 1.1K.
3. 7:00 AM / Premarket: Not seeing any interest any way. Price still holding the 50 handle.
4. Todays News: PMI Manufacturing Final at 9:45, ISM Manufacturing Index & Construction Spending at 10:00, 3-Month Bill Auction & 6-Month Bill Auction at 11:30, John Williams Speaks at 4:30. All times EST.
5. Cycle Bias / Tone: Yes, I'm bullish but it's a low volume day out of a 2-day thanksgiving weekend.
It might take today or tomorrow till trader interest enters back into the market.
6. Honing (turns): Spill up, AM LOW, (NO MID AM), lunch high, mid pm low, LAST HOUR HIGH
7. Previous Day's Numbers:
Open 6033.00
Hod 09:34 6037.00
Lod 12:09 6000.25
Settle 6015.25
Volume 913,469
8. Floor Trader Pivots
DAILY 6017.50
R2 6054.25
R1 6034.75
S1 5998.00
S2 5980.75
WEEK 5946.00
The clock is used to time your entries and exits. Position long at the lows, exit at the highs, get short at the highs, and buy-in at the lows. When the trend is in, WB's clock is your friend!
Your edge is a series of trades, not just one trade or one day.
Dates: November 15 Beaver Moon 4:29 p.m. Winter Equinox December 21 4:21 a.m. (all times Est)
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