Issue 1,798 – Copyright, 2024, by Wyckoff AM Trader
From yesterday: Good morning. Today is SERIES S1L with the spill odds up.
Sometimes it just does the body good to get it right! (and again today)
(from PROS AND NUMBASH)
2. Large Size: I did not see any large size last Nite. And the sell light was on all night.
5. Cycle Bias / Tone: Perhaps today will close the gap and set price higher. I said that yesterday. Today may see some give back.
6. Honing (turns): Spill odds up, loupie loop, LAST HOUR ODDS LOW
Let's review this one more time.
1. A comedian duck tapes a banana to a blank wall at a Soberly auction.
2. Live auction ensues and bids go flying.
3. A Crypto billionaire from China buys the banana for 6.2 Million. (from a cute Asian lady on the phone)
4. A few day's later, the billionaire eats the banana to promote his compony TRON. (which is a live streamed)
5 He already gave the Trump siblings 300 million in crypto coin to fund their venture. (which Trump is also a stake holder)
6. He becomes a stake holder in World Liberty Financial, Trump can reap massive profits — to the tune of $18 million.
7. Trump promises to free up legislation at the SEC to allow bitcoin to be freely traded.
8. Bitcoin rips up to $100,000 and change last night… (if you had bought $100 you be worth $1,200,000 tweets)
Does that about sum it up?
That's the snits of it, the whole URL:
That's how big money is made! (Now why that is not mainstream news I do not know I just did the research myself)
That's why we are traders
Could you made some money today? Only if you were SHORT!
Yes the SHORT SIDE…
Let's talk about it. Price over Globex held about a 10 handle range from the previous day's closing. At the open, an opening budge. Perhaps it was the 10:00 AM news. The Composite Man quickly checks the rally and drives price back down. a bid comes in about 11:00 AM. It's odds and probabilities for the S1 day so we wait.
You may have gotten long at 11:00 AM as most traders did. A near 2 hour rally unfolded. You can see some shortening of the upwards thrusts at 1:00 PM. If you draw a support line you can see we are a bit tad over bought. You could have gotten short there but if you needed more see at 1:15 PM where the support line is violated (get short or add to it).
Now, hold it till the end of the day (odds LAST HOUR LOW).
Heard in the chat: (there was a lot of good savvy advice yesterday)
IMPRO: PITBULL :(10:44:12 AM) : i am a trader bdee make the money and leave i started with nothing and my philosophy was always been win every day every weekevery month nothing bad can happen to you
IMPRO: PITBULL :(10:50:56 AM) : never too late if you are still breathing I love the competition with the world the joy of victory and agony of defeat but never ever let the bastards beat you bdee
IMPRO: PITBULL :(10:51:35 AM) : I always get up off the canvas
And that would have been enough then another trader dropped this bit of wisdom
IMPRO: Reverie :(11:19:04 AM) : Manny, I used to see it that way and solved it accidentally by how a friend sold a car at an auction. It was worth right around $1m, and the way he looked at it was if it sells for less than 600k he would keep it and try again some other time. If it sold for 750k, he’d be 75% happy, 800k 80% happy and so on. Psychologically that’s how I see my trades between the buy signal and sell signals, or scales on larger moves. Was transformational for me in getting frustrated I didn’t bottom and top tick everything. Hope it helps.
IMPRO: Reverie :(11:24:46 AM) : It totally took the pressure off and it was one of the cornerstones that allowed me to trade full time. And like Pitbull said, if the trade doesn’t work (like if his car didn’t hit the reserve), take the trade off and move on to the next one. I struggled for years with figuring out how to handle what I saw as “underperformance” until that shifted my mentality and clicked.
IMPRO: bdee :(11:30:46 AM) : good stuff thanks dont half to pick the bones clean just get a nice chunk
IMPRO: Reverie :(11:31:47 AM) : The ancillary to that was how much I made when I won and how much I lost when I lost. It was silly to make a dollar 4 times, then lost 5 on one trade and say “hey look at my 80% win rate”. Win rate is important but only in the context of your average gains and losses.
IMPRO: KJ :(11:36:56 AM) : another "fitness" test is to take the sum of your top 5 winners and divide it by the sum of you 5 worst days…..obviously you want a ratio greater than 1 but it's a quick and dirty test of your trade distribution
IMPRO: Reverie :(11:42:37 AM) : KJ, I use my last 20 trades and do something similar. I find if that ratio starts narrowing, it’s like a Check Engine light warning. When my equity curve is still rising but I see that ratio narrowing, I start getting smaller. A rising equity curve alone can mask an erosion of the strength of the streak.
IMPRO: KJ :(11:43:56 AM) : exactly Rev….you can take it a step further and do sharpe and sortino ratios on your daily returns if you want to get into the real weeds…
IMPRO: KJ :(11:50:30 AM) : Rev, the only real reason to calculate that stuff is if you're trying to sell your track record to a third party or you're a technical nerd trying to backtest strategies…a good buddy of mine gave me a template a long time ago and showed me how to use it….was way above my paygrade then….been a useful tool since.
IMPRO: Reverie :(11:51:50 AM) : KJ, well luckily the only person I have to sell is my wife, who luckily as hell is the least avaricious person I know. Lol
I trust that helps; it certainly turned some lights on for me!
PROSE and THE NUMBAHS
Good morning. Today is SERIES S2H with the spill down.
1. Last Night: After a weak close yesterday price drifted lower and hung in a near 6 to 8 handle range all Nite.
2. Large Size: They only large size was after the Jobs numbers. 7K lots came off at the 94, 4K at the 96, and 4K at the 99 handle. Looks like the Composite Man was checking the rally.
3. 7:00 AM / Premarket: On the wings on the Job News price spiked up into the potential distribution from yesterday the open around 6098 handle.
4. Todays News: Employment Situation at 8:30, Michelle Bowman Speaks at 9:15, Consumer Sentiment at 10:00, Austan Goolsbee Speaks at 10:30, Treasury Buyback Announcement (Preliminary) at 11:00, Beth Hammack Speaks at 12:00, Baker Hughes Rig Count & Mary Daly Speaks at 1:00, Consumer Credit at 3:00. All times EST.
5. Cycle Bias / Tone: Traders have been waiting all week for the jobs numbers. This may move the needle and set the tone for the day.
6. Honing (turns): Spill down, AM HIGH, (NO MID AM), lunch low, mid pm high, LAST HOUR LOW
7. Previous Day's Numbers:
Open 6098.75
Hod 12:54 6107.25
Lod 16:15 6083.00
Settle 6084.00
Volume 909,270
8. Floor Trader Pivots
DAILY 6091.25
R2 6115.50
R1 6099.75
S1 6075.50
S2 6067.00
WEEK 5946.00
The clock is used to time your entries and exits. Position long at the lows, exit at the highs, get short at the highs, and buy-in at the lows. When the trend is in, WB's clock is your friend!
Your edge is a series of trades, not just one trade or one day.
Dates: December 15 Cold Moon 4:02 a.m. Winter Equinox December 21 4:21 a.m. (all times Est)
Comments are closed