Issue 1,843 – Copyright, 2024, by Wyckoff AM Trader
Yesterday: Good morning. Today is SERIES S1H with the spill down.
5. Cycle Bias: For now at least the S4H day ended strong with the Wedge Zoom closing out the day. We could have an inversion and retert into a S1L day. Perhaps all teh weak hands are out and the Composite Man is ready to start to marking up campaign. We need a catalyst. Perhaps 2:00 PM notes. Perhaps not.
6. Honing (turns): Spill odds down, loupie loop, LAST HOUR ODDS HIGH
Yesterday was a text book Wyckoff Day. He had a saying about coming in or leaving a move as the 2nd reel was changed. If you started at the open, you would have seen reaction from the Globex highs. The market was on a move down. As a trader you were looking for a seal of that move down. There were several indications:
1. Price opened at the halfway retracement of the previous day.
2. Price was trading between the daily pivot and S1 level.
3. After the first 30 minutes you can see volume coming in as price is hesitating to go down.
That's called effort vers result. The result (price) is lagging behind the effort (volume). Notice about 10:30 AM price is lifted 6 handles on 14,000 lots. Some traders were saying that a big short was closing due to no immediate follow through. Perhaps but 30 minutes later, you can see a retest of that level on less volume.
The confirmation comes in as at 11:01 AM through 11:06 AM volume increases as price is lifted up. Notice from 11:00 AM to 12:05 PM the offers are lifted. Price drifts back down till about 12:30 PM and holds at the halfway retracement. So an hour up and 30 minutes down holding the halfway retracement. This is indicating / confirming the bulls are in control. And it's just the SLOG.
Price drifts back up by 2:00 PM and sets up the afternoon trade. BY 2:10 PM you can see volume lift offers as price quickly expands upward. Price holds at the highs up until about 3:00 PM. After 3:00 PM it looks as if price has gotten too long and savvy traders start to unwind their positions taken earlier.
PROSE and THE NUMBAHS
Good morning. Today is SERIES S2L with the spill up.
1. Last Night: This is not going to be easy for the bulls. After a strong CASH close Globex has tried it's best to erase all the gains. At least half of them.
2. Large Size: The only real size came in at 6:55 AM as price tried to check the falling decline around the 45 handle.
3. 7:00 AM / Premarket: Not really seeing anything moving the needle after the numbers.
4. Todays News: Jobless Claims & Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index at 8:30, Austan Goolsbee Speaks at 9:35, Leading Indicators at 10:00, EIA Natural Gas Report at 10:30, EIA Petroleum Status Report at 11:00. Waiting on the PPI.
5. Cycle Bias: Perhaps we got the ear of corn yesterday with the S1H. Today will tell if we get the KEWPIE doll?
Potential dog leg from lunch high down to mid pm low.
6. Honing (turns): Spill up, AM LOW, (NO MID AM), lunch high, mid pm low, LAST HIGH
7. Previous Day's Numbers:
Open 6134.25
Hod 14:52 6166.50
Lod 10:10 6129.25
Settle 6154.00
Volume 871,720
8. Floor Trader Pivots
DAILY 6149.75
R2 6187.00
R1 6170.50
S1 6133.25
S2 6112.50
WEEK 6098.00
The clock is used to time your entries and exits. Position long at the lows, exit at the highs, get short at the highs, and buy-in at the lows. When the trend is in, WB's clock is your friend!
Your edge is a series of trades, not just one trade or one day.
Dates: February 12 Snow Moon 8:53 a.m. Spring Equinox March 20 5:01 a.m. (all times Est)
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