Issue 1,853 – Copyright, 2024, by Wyckoff AM Trader
Yesterday: Good morning. Today is SERIES S1H with the spill odds down.
It's debatable if today was S1H or S1L it started strong and then the bulls dropped the soap. That little ole Floor Trader Pivot held the bulls in check:
IMPRO: Wyckoff Trader :(8:49:01 AM) : Good morning. Today is SERIES S1H with the spill odds down.
IMPRO: Wyckoff Trader :(8:49:19 AM) : let's hope the bulls bring it today
I got long at the open on the spill down
Yea bulls did not bring it…
IMPRO: Wyckoff Trader :(9:34:24 AM) : volume low at these lows
IMPRO: Wyckoff Trader :(9:42:18 AM) : bulls are going to have to recover some levels stating with the 77 handle
IMPRO: Wyckoff Trader :(9:45:50 AM) : seeing some supply,
That was the start
IMPRO: Wyckoff Trader :(9:49:12 AM) : come on 77
IMPRO: Wyckoff Trader :(9:50:30 AM) : that little floor trader pivot better NOT hold this market down
IMPRO: Wyckoff Trader :(9:50:40 AM) : 5773
That's when I should have exited by long from the open.
IMPRO: Wyckoff Trader :(9:53:24 AM) : now tag that 77
IMPRO: Wyckoff Trader :(9:57:30 AM) : it's hard to believe this daily ftp is holding the market down
IMPRO: Wyckoff Trader :(9:57:48 AM) : that and hanks algos…
That's when I did. We always want the confirmation (at least I do). I'm trying to get rid of it. Wyckoff would say you wait till high tide and call your broker and exit market. Easy pleasy in their Barcalounger that how the good ole' boys played it in their day.
I left after I exited my long and had an appointment to meet someone in Morgan Stanly Wealth Management. You know the uber boys in "Money."
The market was tanking when I was there, I could hear the brokers (the retail brokers hank talks about) this is only temporary, Yada, yada, yada. It remined me of the Wall Street movie. Tell them what I want to hear. Now, I was at the guys desk and I saw "Delusions and Madness of Crouds" soft copy in his desk. We talked about it briefly and then I said, "so, you have the original copy of Wyckoff?"
He's says; "NO I WISH I DID!"
I said; "I DO!"
Well needless to say we had a good time. I talked to him about day trading the EMINI and what we look at the ALGOS and the like.
Then I said, "You probably don't look at 5 minute bars?" He's say's "No, here's what I look at…" Pulls up his chart which all have the same chart – set's the time frame on two years. No kidding. I say; "Well the market is looking pretty good today." He says: "In deeded it is!"
He pulls up his technicals and it's fibiniati archs. I get all excited and talk all about fib numbers and just wear him out!
He say's; "That's too deep for me. I just like to look at the pretty lines and how they bounce off each other.
So I talk about floor trader pivots and the calculation and he just get's that glazed look in his eye.
IMPRO: Wyckoff Trader :(9:58:18 AM) : daily floor traders pivot
IMPRO: Wyckoff Trader :(10:51:53 AM) : Bears brought the hurt and the smack down
IMPRO: Wyckoff Trader :(3:21:23 PM) : What a wild ride at least it tagged the 77 better late than never
IMPRO: Wyckoff Trader :(3:41:08 PM) : That little one ftp held them bulls
So I say on your next call perhaps you can share this with your client
IMPRO: Tifosi :(5:18:30 PM) : Trump hasn’t mentioned stocks so far, and the word from D.C. is their focus is on Main Street, not Wall Street, with willingness to tolerate “disturbance” for at least the next six to eight months, while blaming it on Biden, in order to get a framework in place that allows for growth based on what Trump thinks GDP is *for*, e.g., the new office of ship building in the White House.
OF course it would have more gavitious if it came from a research Analys with letter head from Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. To me, that what it is. Not worried about wall street. Trump can always call in the plunge team. Focus on main street. Let the market start healing itself.
Looking at the market overall the market was behaved Friday. I wish I could have been there for the whole secession but I already planed to be with Morgan Stanley. The bigger boys look at standard deviations on 2 years time frame with Fib Archs. As intrada day traders trading the moves of the market, we look at Floor Trader Pivots on 5 minutes. I trade naked so I don't have any moving averages. I also use the tiki and prem which to me is just a function of price, volume and time.
Price rallies up for 20 minutes and gets checked at the daily ftp (floor trader pivot). The algos get on board and start offering down. By 10:00 AM price has already lost half and testing the settle. You can see at 9:57/:58 the tiki is -14 and -8 on about 11,000 total. That little floor trader pivot held price at 5773 handle. Price just bunches up at the top.
Their is a part of me that say's price is going to just go on up. I'm working that part out!
We pull back to halfway retracement by 10:00 AM. And then 10 minutes later at 10:10 AM tiki is -12, -12 on about 9,000 lots. Effort vers result. Price is rounding over and bulls can't get a following. Now, Morgan Stanley doesn't' do this but I do.
If you take the measure of the rise and then from the open draw that line down to the measure of the fall. You'll see they are the same. S2 is coming in at the preliminary support and fib expansions ratios are coming in about the same as S2.
Volume is not being pushed down upon the market and by 12:00 PM we are working on the automatic rally from the selling climax at 11:55 AM. By 12:30 PM it's all but a dream and price is on the move back up. It's a classic day if you love supply lines / trend lines. The 12:30 PM is the break of the supply line.
The rest of the day finally recovers the ftp 77 handle, but it doesn't hold it falls then a push back up to the close.
What I'm saying is, it's like in the first Iron Man move. Toney Stark changes the game plan. And his controller walks up and says you got to stop. And Tony says; "Didn't we already plan for this? We have the shorts on it' should decline to around 40 or so. What's the problem?"
Don't you think Trump and his team has already planned for this? Someone has already gotten the short hedges on. The move Friday was well organized and planned out. Now, it was not "Delusions and Madness of Crouds"
So as Day traders we just need to accept it. It's four years of Trump. Prepare for the unexpected.
PROSE and THE NUMBAHS
Good morning. Today is SERIES S4H NORMAL with the spill down.
1. Last Night: From 2:00 PM to the Friday's CASH close price started to get a rounding over look. As Globex opened up over the weekend, this was confirmed as supply as price strted offering down to the halfway retracement. This is a normal reaction. However price did give back all the gains from the open.
2. Large Size: As price was moving down some interest came in at 4:55 AM to the tune of 6,029 lots total from 14 down to the 03 handle. This ensued a rally up just under the halfway correction to 28 handle. Price rolls over again and is trading back at the 16 handle. Another 2,817 came in defending the 13 handle at the 6:07 mark. For now the COMPOSITE MAN appears to be lifting his buying limits.
3. 7:00 AM / Premarket: at 8:00 AM some volume comes in a the 08 and 09 and sells it down to the 90 handle. About 14,000 lots are holding the 90 handle for now.
4. Todays News: No news of note. All times EST
5. Cycle Bias: I know the market apparently looks as if is sold off but I'm not so sure. It looked organized and controlled to me. It's doing what it should do. There is no alot of weak hands at these levels. The volume on that climax was very low. I can not tell you when the marketing up is going start.
Three Doors: Normal, Wedge Zoom, Link Stink.
I anticipate price is going to check the CASH LOWS from Friday. A successful test would be less volume on the retest on the spill down. If a spring you may see a dip down, a recover and then a test of the spring (dip down). Less than ideal is a #3 spring where price penetrates support and price is pushed through.
6. Honing (turns): Spill down, AM HIGH, MID AM LOW, lunch high, mid pm low, LAST HIGH
7. Previous Day's Numbers:
Open 5726.25
Hod 15:56 5791.00
Lod 11:54 5673.00
Settle 5773.75
Volume 1,850,929
8. Floor Trader Pivots
DAILY 5745.75
R2 5863.75
R1 5818.75
S1 5700.75
S2 5627.75
WEEK 5815.75
Range 118
The clock is used to time your entries and exits. Position long at the lows, exit at the highs, get short at the highs, and buy-in at the lows. When the trend is in, WB's clock is your friend!
Your edge is a series of trades, not just one trade or one day.
Dates: February 12 Snow Moon 8:53 a.m. Spring Equinox March 20 5:01 a.m. (all times Est)
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