Issue 1,885 – Copyright, 2024, by Wyckoff AM Trader
Look closely in these two pictures. Notice the bones and shoulders in the top one. Perhaps a head and shoulders?
https://cdn-1.jjshouse.com/upimg/jjshouse/o600/5f/1c/5a52b0e40468600d571b1c641cdd5f1c.jpg
https://cdn-4.jjshouse.com/upimg/jjshouse/o600/a9/08/3bddd2a303fb90ad199ed7f16bb2a908.jpg
In second picture, this little girl does not exist (the other girl does not either). Notice the feet do not match her age nor her body type?
Are we ready for this. Yet it's here. As the little human girls look at fashion, they will try to mirrow what they see.
I'd say within 30 years, we will not recognize humanity. Well that would be 2025 + 30 = 2055 Hum, that sounds familiar.
2026/2027, 2033, and 2055. Let's see. I'm thinking we might be seeing a black pope once the smoke clears…
May you live in interesting times…
Happy Independence Day! (fourth week after)
We are back on top. At least from the previous two weeks.
DAILY:
Traders are now saying oh well the bulls now have the ball. A slow grind back up. Price closed and held the 5500 big even handle.
One week left to go. Perhaps we can get to it.
YESTERDAY INTRADAY
[ Good morning. Today is SERIES S2L. I would anticipate – More grinding. 5. Cycle Bias: The bulls took it to the hole. NO supply was seen. Just a constant grind up. 6. Honing (turns): Spill up, AM LOW, (NO MID AM), lunch high, mid pm low, LAST HIGH. ]
YESTERDAY RECAP:
The day opens up with the red light sell sign on. After the spill up was sealed at 9:40 AM the bears gave it a go till 10:00 AM. Then 10:00 AM 15 handle spike on 7K lots changed the behavior of the market. Bears dropped the soap. Sealed the AM LOW. Call it early and weak at 10:05 AM. There is no MID AM turn. Bulls have more time to lift the offers. And lift the offers they did up till 1:30 PM center time. Then we have a hook at 2:05 PM for the mid pm low imagine that. With the LAST HOUR HIGH at 3:55 PM.
Ok this is how AI Sydney would have traded Friday:
What a fascinating market dynamic! As a seasoned day trader, I'd love to share my perspective on trading the E-mini futures market given this scenario.
**Initial Thoughts**
The day starts with a red light sell sign, indicating a bearish tone. The bears take control, pushing the market down until 10:00 AM. However, a significant 15-handle spike on 7K lots at 10:00 AM changes the market's behavior. This sudden influx of buying interest causes the bears to lose momentum, and the market seals the AM low at 10:05 AM.
**Long Perspective**
For the long side, I would consider the following:
1. **Buying opportunities**: The 10:00 AM spike and subsequent sealing of the AM low at 10:05 AM create a buying opportunity. The bulls take control, lifting offers until 1:30 PM. This could be a great chance to enter long positions, targeting the mid-day highs.
2. **Momentum**: The market's behavior change at 10:00 AM indicates a potential shift in momentum. If the bulls can maintain control, we might see a sustained uptrend.
3. **Last Hour High**: The LAST HOUR HIGH at 3:55 PM could be a key level to watch. If the market can break above this level, it may indicate further upside potential.
**Short Perspective**
For the short side, I would consider the following:
1. **Failed bearish attempt**: The bears' initial push down was met with significant buying interest at 10:00 AM. This failed attempt might indicate that the bears are weakening.
2. **Mid-PM low**: The hook at 2:05 PM creates a potential short opportunity. If the market can break below this low, it may indicate a resurgence of bearish momentum.
3. **Caution**: However, with the bulls having more time to lift offers and the market making a LAST HOUR HIGH, shorts need to be cautious. A stop loss above the LAST HOUR HIGH could be a good risk management strategy.
**Actionable Insights**
Based on this market behavior, here are some actionable insights:
* Longs: Consider buying on the 10:00 AM spike or the dip into the 2:05 PM mid-PM low. Target the mid-day highs or the LAST HOUR HIGH for potential profit.
* Shorts: Look for short opportunities on the hook at 2:05 PM or a break below the mid-PM low. Be cautious and set stop losses above the LAST HOUR HIGH.
Keep in mind that these are just general insights, and it's essential to adapt to the current market conditions, using your own risk management strategies and trading plan.
How would you like to proceed? Would you like to discuss any specific trading strategies or clarify any points?
————-
Scarry isn't it. AI / Sydney has a better perspective on trading then most traders in the seat? I agree with her long perspective but her short perspective needs more refinement. She is looking for a continuation for further downside action.
SO I ASKED HER:
The short thesis! Let's dive deeper into the potential short opportunities and considerations.
**Short Thesis**
The short thesis is based on the idea that the market's bullish momentum, which started at10:00 AM, may be exhausted or vulnerable to a reversal. Here are some key points to consider:
1. **Failed bearish attempt**: The bears' initial push down was met with significant buying interest at10:00 AM. However, this failed attempt might have led to a temporary exhaustion of bearish momentum, making it more challenging for bears to re-enter the market.
2. **Overextension**: The market's rally from10:05 AM to1:30 PM could be considered an overextension. The bulls had a relatively easy ride, and the market might be due for a correction or a pullback.
3. **Hook at2:05 PM**: The hook at2:05 PM creates a potential short opportunity. If the market can break below this low, it may indicate a resurgence of bearish momentum.
4. **Lack of conviction**: The market's behavior, with a significant spike at10:00 AM and a relatively smooth ride to the LAST HOUR HIGH, might indicate a lack of conviction among bulls. This could lead to a more fragile market, making it vulnerable to a short squeeze or a reversal.
**Short Entry Considerations**
When considering short entries, keep the following in mind:
1. **Trigger**: A break below the2:05 PM hook or a failure to make a new high could serve as a trigger for short entries.
2. **Confirmation**: Look for confirmation of bearish momentum, such as a increase in volume or a series of lower highs and lower lows.
3. **Target**: Initial targets could be the mid-PM low or the AM low. More aggressive targets might include the overnight lows or the previous day's lows.
**Risk Management**
When shorting, it's essential to manage risk carefully:
1. **Stop loss**: Set a stop loss above the LAST HOUR HIGH (3:55 PM) or the recent swing high. This will help limit potential losses if the market reverses.
2. **Position sizing**: Be mindful of position sizing, as the market can move quickly. Start with smaller positions and adjust as needed.
**Challenges and Considerations**
Shorting can be challenging, especially in a market with a strong bullish tone. Keep in mind:
1. **Bulls' control**: The bulls have been in control for most of the day, and it's essential to respect their dominance.
2. **Momentum**: The market's momentum might shift quickly, making it crucial to monitor indicators and adjust positions accordingly.
3. **News and events**: Be aware of any news or events that could impact the market, as they might influence the market's direction.
By understanding these factors and being mindful of risk management, you can develop a more informed short thesis and make more effective trading decisions.
How do you think about shorting in this market scenario? Do you have any specific questions or concerns about the short thesis?
REMEMBER EVERY REPLY is LEGAL TRADING MATEIAL: (I wrote about this in 2020. You do realize this was not even possible then)
PROSE AND THE NUMBAHS
Good morning. Today is SERIES S1L. I would anticipate – Perpahs we will pull back and test some of Fridays range.
1. Last Night: Price diped down to retrace half of Friday's gain, found a bid and now is sneeking up to the high.
2. Large Size: No larger size seen over night.
3. 7:00 AM / Premarket: Nothing moving the needle. Still knocking on heavens door at the CASH high. Sitting on unchanged.
4. News: No news of note. All times EST.
5. Cycle Bias: I went to the bearish side due to the timid move taking out the previous two weeks highs.
Now here is Sydneys take: (I will not do this every time)
An excellent point! You're right; Friday was largely controlled by the bulls after the10:00 AM behavior change. This could have implications for Monday's trading.
**Bullish Momentum on Friday**
The bulls' dominance on Friday, particularly after the10:00 AM spike, could indicate a strong underlying bullish trend. This might make it more challenging for bears to take control, at least in the short term.
**Shorting on Monday**
Considering a short position on Monday, you'd need to be aware of the following:
1. **Gaps and reversals**: If the market gaps up on Monday, it could be a sign of continued bullish momentum. A short position might be more challenging to execute in this scenario.
2. **Support levels**: Look for potential support levels that could be tested on Monday. If the market finds support and bounces, it might indicate a stronger bullish trend.
3. **Volume and order flow**: Monitor volume and order flow on Monday to gauge market sentiment. A lack of selling pressure or a surge in buying interest could make it difficult for shorts to gain traction.
**Potential Short Entry on Monday**
If you're still interested in shorting on Monday, consider the following:
1. **Wait for a failed rally**: Look for a failed rally or a rejection of a key resistance level. This could be a sign that the bulls are losing momentum, making it more favorable for shorts.
2. **Identify a trigger**: Establish a clear trigger for shorting, such as a break below a support level or a specific technical indicator.
3. **Be prepared for a stop loss**: Set a stop loss above a key resistance level or the previous day's high. This will help limit potential losses if the market reverses.
**Key Levels to Watch on Monday**
Some key levels to watch on Monday include:
1. **Friday's lows**: The AM low and the mid-PM low could act as support levels. A break below these levels might indicate a shift in momentum.
2. **Resistance levels**: Keep an eye on resistance levels, such as the LAST HOUR HIGH (3:55 PM) or the previous day's highs. A rejection of these levels could create a shorting opportunity.
**Conclusion**
While there are potential shorting opportunities on Monday, it's essential to be aware of the bullish momentum that dominated Friday's trading. Be cautious and wait for clear signs of a trend reversal or a failed rally before entering a short position.
How do you plan to approach Monday's trading? Will you be looking for shorting opportunities, or do you think the bulls will maintain control?
6. Honing (turns): Spill odds up, loupie loop, LAST ODDS LOW.
7. Previous Day's Numbers:
Open 5510.50
Hod 13:29 5554.50
Lod 10:32 5480.25
Settle 5553.75
Volume 1,012,334
8. Floor Trader Pivots
DAILY 5529.50
R2 5603.75
R1 5578.75
S1 5504.50
S2 5455.25
WEEK 5411.75
Range 74
The clock is used to time your entries and exits. Position long at the lows, exit at the highs, get short at the highs, and buy-in at the lows. When the trend is in, WB's clock is your friend!
Your edge is a series of trades, not just one trade or one day.
Dates: May 12 Flower Moon 12:56 p.m. Summer Solstice (Equinox) June 20 1:41 p.m. (all times Est)
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