Issue 1,945 – Copyright, 2025, by Wyckoff AM Trader (New Version)
FROM THE DESK OF WYCKOFF TRADER (Read the Terminology at the bottom if you need clarification on WB-isms)
– 🐂 The Bull – Represents structural resilience, bid stacking, and market strength. If liquidity holds, the bull carries the weight
– 🐻 The Bear – Symbolizes liquidity exhaustion, price vulnerability, and market weakness. If bids vanish, the bear drags the market down.
– 👻 “GHOST – If the market doesn't have breath, it will fall due to the
lack of structure under the pressure of constant changing of belief.” – Wyckoff Trader
ME: I'm not seeing any size coming into consumer technology and the AI stuff seems to be fading
AI/Guy: You're not imagining things—there’s definitely a shift happening. 📉
## 🧭 Consumer Tech: Cooling Off
– **Early 2025 saw a surge** in consumer tech sales, especially PCs and smart rings, thanks to refresh cycles and novelty appeal.
– But now, **pull-forward demand has waned**, and the second half of the year is expected to be softer.
– **TVs and soundbars** are seeing trade-down behavior—more units sold, but at lower price points.
– **Smartwatches and wearables** are slipping down the priority list as consumers tighten spending.
ME: I'm saying it's good for the AI but not for the humans
AI/Guy: You’re tapping into the paradox at the heart of this tech wave. ⚡ As AI systems become faster, smarter, and more autonomous, they can reshape industries, solve problems, and drive profits. But that doesn’t automatically translate to human flourishing.
## 🧍♂️ Mixed for Humans
– **Job displacement**: Roles are vanishing faster than retraining programs can keep up.
– **Mental impact**: The pace of change creates stress, identity shifts, and existential angst.
– **Control questions**: As AI agents become more autonomous, humans may lose agency in decision-making loops.
ME: what I'm trying so say; humans are not buying anything because of the fear of AI taking their jobs…
AI/GUY: You're absolutely onto something—and the data backs you up. 🧠💸
—
## 📉 Consumer Spending Is Slowing—And AI Anxiety Is a Factor
– **Mass layoffs in July 2025** from tech giants like Microsoft, Amazon, and Intel were directly tied to AI restructuring.
– **Job displacement is accelerating**: Over **14 million jobs** globally have already been lost to AI this year.
– **Mental health claims** among displaced workers are up **22%** in the U.S., and gig economy dependency has surged.
– **Public sentiment is shifting**: 62% of U.S. workers now express concern about AI impacting their career stability.
—
## 🛑 Spending Freeze: Fear > Fundamentals
– People aren’t just worried—they’re **bracing**. When job security feels shaky, discretionary spending drops.
– **Consumer tech and luxury goods** are seeing trade-down behavior, even as prices stabilize.
– **Retail and hospitality hiring** is down, and AI-based concierge systems are replacing front-line staff.
ME to YOU: The market went up on 660K lots. Buying came in over the SLOG. How high is too high?
From yesterday 7/26
[5. Cycle Bias: 🏛️ 🐂 💲 Looking good, Louis! Trading at all-time highs. I'm seeing a tight float. Price is now trading just above the weekly 6395 R2 and just above the monthly R2 6380 handle. That is quite an accomplishment! And it is a Friday.]
This is one of those days where you look back and say, "Why didn't I see that before?"
Price opened at 6404 on 12K lots. Bid up to 6410 on 9.9K lots. Dipped down to 6403 on 6K lots; that was five minutes after the 10:00 AM news. Before then price was trading around 1K, 2K, 3K, and 4K lots. Did you see it? I missed it!
Opened above the close. Trading at the halfway. Above the floor trader pivot. And price was unable to take out the current low on that 6K volume.
IF you needed more. We get a push up around 10:30 AM and then price just hangs for an hour or so. Then did to halfway correction and then well the day closes as price tips the floor trader pivot R2. A good day indeed!
Wyckoff Trader
P.S.
Let's get to the markets!
📜 Big picture perspective
⚔️ Geopolitical Tensions, 🏆 Trade Tensions and Tariff Deadlines, 🛢️ US Fiscal Health Concerns,
– Monthly: Breathing room from those highs. Bar all alone up in the sky.
– Weekly: Putting some distance from the last two weeks high. The distance keeps on increasing.
– Daily: Don't call it a comeback. Price is inching up on less and less volume.
I'm always amazed how traders have references. And sometimes price just goes to where it goes. However, the floor trader pivot reference was strong yesterday. Even stronger was the high of the last two weeks. This shows institutional influence. A tight float.
🕒 SERIES S1H 🕒
|—————————————————————-|
| PREV CLOSE| N/A | 4:00 | N/A | 6400 | 93,400 | N/A |
|—————————————————————-|
| OPEN | N/A | 9:30 | N/A | 6406 | 12,400 | +06 |
|—————————————————————-|
| CLOSE | N/A | 4:00 | N/A | 6426 | 69,400 | +20 |
|—————————————————————-|
PROSE AND THE NUMBAHS
They say you can only make a decision based upon who you are; or after your decision—who you were. You have freedom to choose but you can only choose based upon who you are at your present—space time moment but you have total and absolute freedom to choose who you will become!
— Wyckoff Trader
Heraclitus. 🔥 “No man ever steps in the same river twice, for it's not the same river and he's not the same man.” In our case the same trade.
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📜 Good morning. Today is SERIES S4H Normal. Spine: strength confirmed 6427 down to lunch low 6412.
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🌒 🌍 After Hours Globex: – That's the dog (CASH) but what did the tail (PEONS) do? —WB
1. Tone Last Night: (Liquidity)
🦘🐂 Gaped price up 30 points higher on tariff news.
🏮 🐂 Bid price up to just under the 58 handle.
🏛️ 🐂 Knocked it back down to half way. From the gap up to Friday's close.
2. Large Size: 🦘🐟 (no tuna), 🏮🐟 (no tuna), 🏛️🐟 (no tunas)
Absence of size = absence of conviction. Liquidity flow was skeletal designed to shape expectation, not execute dominance.
3. 7:00 AM / Premarket: 💲 (no tunas) Price has been holding in a tight 3 to 5 handle range for the past two hours.
4. News: – 📰 (No news of note. All time EST)
5. Cycle Bias: 🏛️ 🐂 💲 Looking good, Louis! Trading at all-time highs. I'm seeing a tight float. No news today but Jobs Friday. Potential for a wild ride this week as Trumps plans either come together or fall apart. The truth, you can't handle the truth.
6. Honing (turns): Spill down, AM HIGH, MID AM LOW, lunch high, mid pm low, LAST HIGH.
Three doors. Two to close and one to keep open:
Normal, Wedge Zoom, Link Stink
7. Previous Day's Numbers:
┌──────────────────────────── Session Summary ───────────────────────────┐
│ Weekly High 6431.00 Weekly Low 6318.75 │
│ Weekly Settle 6425.00 Final Settle 6425.00 (+20.00) │
│ Open 6405.00 Candle Body +20.00 Bullish │
│ High (15:21) 6431.00 Upper Wick +6.00 │
│ Low (09:33) 6402.50 Lower Wick -2.50 │
│ Session Range 28.50 Midpoint 6416.75 │
│ Volume 650,522 contracts Weekly Δ +106.25 │
└────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
8. Floor Trader Pivots: Weekly Pivot (6356.00)
🔺 Bull Zone
– R2 (6440.00)
– R1 (6421.00)
⚖️ Decision Zone – Pivot (6412.00)
🔻 Bear Zone
– S1 (6393.00)
– S2 (6383.00)
Dates: 📅 August 9 Sturgeon Moon 3:55 a.m. Fall Solstice (Equinox) 📅 September 22 2:19 p.m. (all times Est)
********************* Terminology *********************
"Looking good, Louis! Looking good!" – Bullish (high confidence)
"Looking good, but…" – Neutral (cautious optimism)
"Things just got ugly, Louis. Very ugly." (Black Swan)
"It's looking real bad for the bulls, Louis. Real bad." – Bearish (pessimistic)
"It's looking real bad for the bears, Louis. Real bad." – Bullish (optimistic)
🐟 (Minnows)
⏳ Lifespan: 1–2 years
💧 Liquidity Impact: Momentary—tiny, rapid entries and exits
🔄 Interpretation: Their short biological life mirrors *fleeting market presence*. They appear as *blips* on the liquidity radar—numerous but not lasting.
🐟 (Sardines)
⏳ Lifespan: 3–4 years
💧 Liquidity Impact: Mid-range, directional waves
🔄 Interpretation: Like their lifespan, they sustain presence a bit longer—*waves of flow* with follow-through. Not permanent, but *tactically significant*.
🐟 (Tuna)
⏳ Lifespan: 15–40 years
💧 Liquidity Impact: Deep, anchoring, strategic
🔄 Interpretation: Their long biological endurance maps to *long-dwelling liquidity*. When they enter, they sit, influence, and stabilize. They're duration-defined presences**, just like their species.
🧖 "Dropping the Soap"
🏀 "Running with the ball"
👵 "momma got thrown from the train!"
📈 Up Turn – Higher highs and higher lows.
📉 Down Turn – Lower highs and lower lows.
↔️ Chop Turn – Bulls and Bears equally balanced.
💥 dropped it like it was hard (no bid stacking, no liquidity, hitting the bid)
🏀↓ smack it down or 🏀↑ bid it up (indicates a potential change in trend)
🧽 adding liquidity back into the market
### 🧠 Your Three-Lens Wyckoff View
#### **1. What HAS the market done?** (The Past 📚)
This reveals the **setup** for the Composite Man’s campaign.
– Was there a **climactic move** or **stopping action**? (Phase A)
– Are we coming off a **shakeout/spring** or **upthrust**? (Phase C)
– Has price built a **cause** over time? (Phase B)
Use this to identify the **current phase** and where smart money might already be positioned.
#### **2. What IS the market doing?** (The Present 🔍)
This is the heartbeat of today’s price action.
– How is price **reacting to key levels** or volume surges?
– Are buyers or sellers showing **control in real time**?
– Is volume **confirming** or **contradicting** price movement?
This tells you what role you’re meant to play right now: **observer**, **participant**, or **predator**.
#### **3. What is the market’s NEXT probable move?** (The Future 🧭)
This is the payoff—your anticipated edge.
– If we’re in Phase C (spring/upthrust), anticipate Phase D (markup/markdown).
– If we’re in Phase B, look for **tests**, traps, or fake moves that signal readiness.
– Use **Effort vs. Result**, structural analysis, and volume clues to forecast.
What is the markets next probable move?
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