Issue 1,948 – Copyright, 2025, by Wyckoff AM Trader (New Version)
FROM THE DESK OF WYCKOFF TRADER (Read the Terminology at the bottom if you need clarification on WB-isms)
– 🐂 The Bull – Represents structural resilience, bid stacking, and market strength. If liquidity holds, the bull carries the weight
– 🐻 The Bear – Symbolizes liquidity exhaustion, price vulnerability, and market weakness. If bids vanish, the bear drags the market down.
– 👻 “GHOST – If the market doesn't have breath, it will fall due to the
lack of structure under the pressure of constant changing of belief.” – Wyckoff Trader
From yesterday 7/28
[📜 Good morning. Today is SERIES S2H IFFY. Spine: strength confirmed 6434 down to lunch low 6409.]
This day was SPOT on for the clock. The Fed played their hand and price showed it's true intent and then shook out all the weak hands. You got to love it want a plan comes together. Price trades down to settle and then trades back up to the daily pivot. By the lunch low it's looking good for the bulls. Then the 2:00 AM roach dance looks ok and then it's not. Price dips down past daily pivot, the CASH low, then S1 and finally S2 price comes in and climaxes the down move. By the close, price is trading up above S1 and as I write above CASH high and biding 6450 handle.
Wyckoff Trader
P.S.
If you take a moment to watch these, you may find something interesting. Would you want to be on an instellar flight if Elon was the captain? And 1,000,000 people on Mars by 2050. That is so close to 2055 don't you think? Elon is assuming we are all there is and ever will be…
Let's get to the markets!
📜 Big picture perspective
⚔️ Geopolitical Tensions, 🏆 Trade Tensions and Tariff Deadlines, 🛢️ US Fiscal Health Concerns,
– Monthly: Just a slight tug is all it took. Price dipped down the check the lows and is how back up at the highs.
– Weekly: Price dipped just to the half way retraction of the previous weeks and now trading above the highs.
– Daily: After dipping down below the previous weeks low and then some; price rallied back up to the highs above the past two days.
I'm always amazed how traders have references. And sometimes price just goes to where it goes. However, the floor trader pivot reference was strong yesterday. Even stronger was the high of the last two weeks. This shows institutional influence. A tight float.
🕒 SERIES S2H 🕒
|—————————————————————-|
| PREV CLOSE| N/A | 4:00 | N/A | 6404 | 64,700 | -32 |
|—————————————————————-|
| OPEN | N/A | 9:30 | N/A | 6413 | 16,400 | +09 |
|—————————————————————-|
| TURN | H/L | SEAL | BIAS | HNDLE | VOL | DELTA MIN |
|—————————————————————-|
| Spill | dn | 9:55 | early | 6407 | 3,800 | (-06) 25m |
|—————————————————————-|
| AM | HIGH | 10:20 | late | 6421 | 7,600 | (+14) 25m |
|—————————————————————-|
| MID AM | NO TURN |
|—————————————————————-|
| lunch | low | 1:30 | center | 6414 | 8,100 | (-07)190m |
|—————————————————————-|
| mid pm | high | 2:35 | center | 6429 | 39,600 | (+15) 65m | Spine High
|—————————————- ———————–|
| LAST HOUR | low | 3:05 | late | 6369 | 41,800 | (-60) 30m | Spine Low
|—————————————————————-|
| CLOSE | N/A | 4:00 | N/A | 6399 |102,500 | +30 |
|—————————————————————-|
PROSE AND THE NUMBAHS
They say you can only make a decision based upon who you are; or after your decision—who you were. You have freedom to choose but you can only choose based upon who you are at your present—space time moment but you have total and absolute freedom to choose who you will become!
— Wyckoff Trader
Heraclitus. 🔥 “No man ever steps in the same river twice, for it's not the same river and he's not the same man.” In our case the same trade.
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📜 Good morning. Today is SERIES S3H IFFY. Spine: strength confirmed mid pm 6429 down to LAST HOUR 6369.
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🌒 🌍 After Hours Globex: – That's the dog (CASH) but what did the tail (PEONS) do? —WB
1. Tone Last Night: (Liquidity)
🦘🐂 Opens above the CASH high and held the bid.
🏮 🐂 After a drift down from 6446 handle opens at 6440 handle and bids price back up to the 6446 handle. And now, trading at the 6450 handle.
🏛️ 🐂 Hold price at the 50 and then pop price almost 20 handles to the 6468 setting an all time high without CASH approval.
2. Large Size: 🦘🐟 (no tuna), 🏮🐟 (no tuna), 🏛️🐟 (1 tunas)
Absence of size = absence of conviction. Liquidity flow was skeletal designed to shape expectation, not execute dominance.
3. 7:00 AM / Premarket: 💲 (8 tunas) Price is holding around R2. Let's see what the bulls got! Price is holding round the previous all time high.
4. News: – 📰 (Jobless Claims at 8:30 & Employment Cost Index at 8:30, Chicago PMI at 9:45, EIA Natural Gas Report at 10:30. All time EST)
5. Cycle Bias: 🏛️ 🐂 💲 Looking good, Louis! I thinking we got a terminal shakeout at the mid pm high. 41,800 weak hands gave to strong at 6369 handle. This was further confirmed at the close with 102,500 contracts trading at 6399 handle. Over Globex price has recovered CASH high trading just at 6450 handle and climbing. And now price as the PEONS print traded at the Weekly Floor Trader Pivot R2 6468 handle.
6. Honing (turns): Spill down, AM HIGH, MID AM LOW, lunch high, mid pm low, LAST HIGH. This could flip
7. Previous Day's Numbers:
┌──────────────────────────── Session Summary ───────────────────────────┐
│ Weekly High 6431.00 Weekly Low 6318.75 │
│ Weekly Settle 6425.00 Final Settle 6431.75 (+6.75) │
│ Open 6412.00 Candle Body +19.75 Strong │
│ High (16:14) 6435.25 Upper Wick +3.50 │
│ Low (15:07) 6366.75 Lower Wick -5.25 │
│ Session Range 63.00 Midpoint 6399.00 │
│ Volume 1,094,913 contracts Weekly Δ +13.00 │
└────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
8. 🧭 Floor Trader Pivots: Weekly Pivot (6356.00)
🔺 Bull Zone
– R2: 6442.75
– R1: 6431.00
⚖️ Decision Zone Pivot: 6412.50
🔻 Bear Zone
– S1: 6395.75
– S2: 6366.75
Play of the day by trader Guy
What is the markets next probable move?
Let’s lace up and dive in, because this chart’s talking.
You've already framed the Globex move past 6450, the reclaim at 6399 after a 60-handle flush, and the volume fingerprint left on the high. That’s a killer read. So here’s how I’d prep for the next session, armed with your print map and tape logic:
### 🧭 **The Roadmap: Battle Plan for the Next RTH**
#### 📌 **Zones of Interest**
| Level | Role | Reason |
|——-|——|——–|
| 6369 | Support Base | Liquidity flush low; must hold for bullish continuation |
| 6399 | Balance Anchor | Largest volume reclaim; institutional defense zone |
| 6429 | RTH High | Previous resistance; breakout pivot |
| 6450 | Globex High | Overnight continuation; new battleground |
| 6475–6485 | Stretch Target | Potential markup zone if momentum holds |
#### 🔍 **Opening Scenarios**
1. **Gap-Up Above 6450**
– Look for early drive. If volume confirms and 6450 gets defended, we’re likely in **Phase D markup**.
– Watch for trap wick early in first 15–30 minutes—institutions might fake a pullback to reload.
2. **Open Inside 6415–6445**
– Neutral rotation; this is **value acceptance zone**.
– Tape focus: Does volume stack on upticks? If so, 6450 may be breached mid-session.
3. **Gap-Down Into 6399 Zone**
– That’s a test of reclaim strength. If defended with confidence (tight spreads, rising delta), it’s an opportunity.
– Failure here opens door for range reversion back to 6369.
### 📊 **Volume & Auction Reads**
– Rising volume above 6429 = institutions defending breakout
– Low volume fade back to 6399 = no panic, just a backfill
– Aggressive selling into 6369 with wide spread? Uh-oh—could signal more supply than we thought
Dates: 📅 August 9 Sturgeon Moon 3:55 a.m. Fall Solstice (Equinox) 📅 September 22 2:19 p.m. (all times Est)
********************* Terminology *********************
"Looking good, Louis! Looking good!" – Bullish (high confidence)
"Looking good, but…" – Neutral (cautious optimism)
"Things just got ugly, Louis. Very ugly." (Black Swan)
"It's looking real bad for the bulls, Louis. Real bad." – Bearish (pessimistic)
"It's looking real bad for the bears, Louis. Real bad." – Bullish (optimistic)
🐟 (Minnows)
⏳ Lifespan: 1–2 years
💧 Liquidity Impact: Momentary—tiny, rapid entries and exits
🔄 Interpretation: Their short biological life mirrors *fleeting market presence*. They appear as *blips* on the liquidity radar—numerous but not lasting.
🐟 (Sardines)
⏳ Lifespan: 3–4 years
💧 Liquidity Impact: Mid-range, directional waves
🔄 Interpretation: Like their lifespan, they sustain presence a bit longer—*waves of flow* with follow-through. Not permanent, but *tactically significant*.
🐟 (Tuna)
⏳ Lifespan: 15–40 years
💧 Liquidity Impact: Deep, anchoring, strategic
🔄 Interpretation: Their long biological endurance maps to *long-dwelling liquidity*. When they enter, they sit, influence, and stabilize. They're duration-defined presences**, just like their species.
🧖 "Dropping the Soap"
🏀 "Running with the ball"
👵 "momma got thrown from the train!"
📈 Up Turn – Higher highs and higher lows.
📉 Down Turn – Lower highs and lower lows.
↔️ Chop Turn – Bulls and Bears equally balanced.
💥 dropped it like it was hard (no bid stacking, no liquidity, hitting the bid)
🏀↓ smack it down or 🏀↑ bid it up (indicates a potential change in trend)
🧽 adding liquidity back into the market
### 🧠 Your Three-Lens Wyckoff View
#### **1. What HAS the market done?** (The Past 📚)
This reveals the **setup** for the Composite Man’s campaign.
– Was there a **climactic move** or **stopping action**? (Phase A)
– Are we coming off a **shakeout/spring** or **upthrust**? (Phase C)
– Has price built a **cause** over time? (Phase B)
Use this to identify the **current phase** and where smart money might already be positioned.
#### **2. What IS the market doing?** (The Present 🔍)
This is the heartbeat of today’s price action.
– How is price **reacting to key levels** or volume surges?
– Are buyers or sellers showing **control in real time**?
– Is volume **confirming** or **contradicting** price movement?
This tells you what role you’re meant to play right now: **observer**, **participant**, or **predator**.
#### **3. What is the market’s NEXT probable move?** (The Future 🧭)
This is the payoff—your anticipated edge.
– If we’re in Phase C (spring/upthrust), anticipate Phase D (markup/markdown).
– If we’re in Phase B, look for **tests**, traps, or fake moves that signal readiness.
– Use **Effort vs. Result**, structural analysis, and volume clues to forecast.
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