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Front-Running the Rally: How Insider Moves Are Fueling the Market Surge
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Our View
Why have the ES and NQ rallied so much in the last two days when the world is falling apart? I can tell you in one word: it’s fixed. I’ve known about ‘front-running’ for a long time. Before the credit crisis, we had a guy, Bert F., who was using my desk, who told us the Fed was going to raise interest rates on Thursday. I didn’t believe it, but I told some hedge funds—and sure enough, at 10:30 a.m. that Thursday, the Fed raised by 0.25 bps. If my desk got the info, how many other people knew? The ES was up on Wednesday and up over 1% on Thursday.
I hate using this term, but back in the old days, front-running was kept a secret. All sorts of traders have been caught passing on information; they lost their jobs, and some went to jail. Today, it’s different. On April 9, President Trump likely said it would be a good day for the markets through a post on Truth Social, stating, “THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!!” This was made hours before announcing a 90-day pause on tariffs, which led to a significant market rally. The DJIA surged by 2,962.86 points (7.87%).
Monday was another front run. The ES gapped lower Sunday night, sold off, then rallied to new highs after Trump came out saying Israel and Iran had agreed to a ceasefire. I saw a lot of this on the floor—brokers front running orders and the boys with the better seats, but not even close to the level of front running we’re seeing today.
At 8:30, Jerome Powell spoke to the House Financial Services Committee during his semiannual monetary policy testimony. Headlines hit around 8:50 saying:
“For the time being, we are well-positioned to wait to learn more about the likely course of the economy before considering any adjustments to our policy stance,” Powell said in prepared testimony for the House Financial Services Committee, which is scheduled to convene at 10 a.m.
The ES traded up to 6143.75 on Globex after Trump’s comments and opened Tuesday’s regular session at 6118.50, up 41.75 points or +0.68%. After the open, the ES had a small drop, then rallied, chopped around for the next hour and a half, and pushed to a new high at 6155.25. Then, the headlines started hitting the tape around 1:20, and the ES sold off down to the 6138 area. After a few higher lows, the ES rallied back up to a new high at 6155.25 after 3:30 and then sold off down to the 6147 area.
These are just a few of the headlines from the day:
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1:21:59 PM: EU warns a baseline Trump tariff would still spur retaliation
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2:54:59 PM: Early US intel assessment suggests strikes on Iran did not destroy nuclear sites
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3:24:56 PM: The US bombs didn’t collapse the underground Iranian nuclear buildings – NYT
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2:56:35 PM: NETANYAHU: IF ANYONE TRIES TO REVIVE THE NUCLEAR PROJECT, WE WILL ACT WITH THE SAME FORCE
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3:16:05 PM: Trump told Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu not to expect more American offensive – AP
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3:23 PM: NETANYAHU: WE MUST COMPLETE THE CAMPAIGN AGAINST THE IRANIAN AXIS, DEFEAT HAMAS AND BRING ABOUT THE RELEASE OF ALL THE HOSTAGES IN GAZA, BOTH LIVING AND DEAD
The 3:30 imbalance came out $350 million to buy, the ES traded 6143.75 on the 4:00 cash close, and settled at 6143.50 on the 5:00 futures close, up 66.5 points.
In the end, the ES has rallied 98 points from Sunday night’s Globex low of 5950, and is only 20 points off its all-time contract high.
In terms of overall tone, the ES and NQ markets are firm. Volume was lower, with 1.03 million contracts traded.
What most people see at the end of the trading day is a news story and the net change, not the all-day price action. The ES typically gaps higher, sells off 10 to 15 points, rallies to a new high of the day, chops around, and sells off again. In most cases, the ES will hold at or near the early low—or go slightly lower—but either way, it rallies again, pulls back to a higher low, and slowly upticks over the next few hours.
If it does what it normally does, the ES will have a few small pullbacks, make a new high by a few points, then start to sell off late in the day, just like it has for the past two months. I know it sounds funny, but you can really see these patterns.
There are six trading sessions left in Q2. What we’re hearing is that the total rebalance is valued at $38 to $40 billion. Part of it will be buying bonds and selling stocks.
Here are some index-related notes:
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S&P/NZX Indices: The S&P/NZX 10 and 20 indices had no changes based on the June quarterly review.
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S&P/TOPIX 150 Index: No changes in the June quarterly review.
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MSCI Indices: As of May 30, the MSCI ACWI Index added 30 securities and deleted 61. Notable additions to the MSCI World Index include Ryanair Holdings, Sigma Healthcare, and International Airlines Group.
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Russell US Indexes: The 37th annual reconstitution is expected to finalize at the end of June. Early indicators suggest the Russell 1000 Value Index may increase its allocation to tech and communication services, potentially adding Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta.
Our Lean
Today, we have the U.S. Trade Balance number at 7:00 a.m. ET, along with Initial Jobless Claims, Durable Goods, and GDP at 8:30. At 10:00 a.m. ET, Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell will testify before the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, providing insights into the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy direction. Also at 10:00, we’ll see Pending Home Sales, followed by the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report at 10:30. There’s also a 17-Week Bill, 2-Year FRN, and 5-Year Note auction—all alongside a whole lot of headlines.
Our lean: When volume drops down to just over or under 1 million contracts, it usually favors the upside. I don’t know that the ES will get down there, but there’s a big area of support between the 6080 to 6110 level. I can’t rule out selling an early rip, but ideally, I would like to buy a lower open and buy the pullbacks or weakness.
Guest Posts — Polaris Trading Group
Prior Session was Cycle Day 1: Closing CD3 momentum spilled over into CD1, barely producing a decline, which would be the “normal.”
***Now we have learned that on a Cycle Day 1 (CD1), IF there is a shallow decline and/or the low is made “first” (early) in the session, THEN the readthrough is for an expected STRONG UP trading session.
Today’s CD1 session had BOTH elements, which of course produced an exceptionally strong trend up trading rhythm, that closed price in the upper quartile of the day’s range.
Range for this session was 80 handles on 1.0M contracts exchanged. Note: the expected range was 80.25 handles. Reference the FREE Range Target Calculator located in the PTG Website.
For a more detailed recap of the trading session, click on this link: Trading Room RECAP 6.24.25
FREE TRIAL link to PTG/Taylor Three Day Cycle
…Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2
Transition into Cycle Day 2: Partial cycle rally is currently in-place having reached the 6155 range objective in the prior session.
Normal for a Cycle Day 2 (CD2) would be an expectation of some balancing/consolidation MATD type rhythms.
On deck for today is JPOW testimony Part 2 which should not be a major factor in traders decision matrix.
We’ll remain alert and vigilant for TTB’s as POTUS is overseas at the NATO Summit. Israel & Iran are new BFF’s, so it should be the new “summer of love!”
Of course, nothing changes for PTG…Simply follow your plan. Take only Triple A setups and manage the $risk. ALWAYS HAVE HARD STOP-LOSSES in-place on the exchange.
PTG’s Primary Directive (PD) is to ALWAYS STAY IN ALIGNMENT with the DOMINANT FORCE.
As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 6145+-, initially targets 6155 – 6165 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 6145+-, initially targets 6135 – 6130 zone.
PVA High Edge = 6155 PVA Low Edge = 6125 Prior POC = 6147
ESU
Thanks for reading, PTGDavid
MiM and Daily Recap
The S&P 500 futures (ES) opened the regular session at 6118.50 following a positive overnight Globex session that closed up 40.50 points. Premarket trade showed initial weakness, with ES printing a low of 6109.00 at 10:05 AM, down 21.25 points (-0.35%) from the early high of 6130.25 at 9:54 AM.
From the 10:05 AM low, the market staged a strong rally through midday. Price action advanced steadily, reaching a session high of 6148.75 at 12:40 PM—a 39.75-point gain (+0.65%) off the morning low. This move set a bullish tone for the remainder of the session.
After peaking at 6148.75, the ES pulled back to 6139.75 by 1:25 PM, shaving off 9.00 points (-0.15%). A secondary rally emerged in the afternoon, lifting the market to a higher high of 6155.25 at 3:30 PM, marking a modest 15.50-point push (+0.25%) from the preceding low and establishing the high of the day.
Prices retraced to 6142.25 at 4:15 PM and ended up closing at 6143.75 at the cash settlement.
Overall, the full session closed up 67 points or +1.10% from the previous day’s 6078.00 close. The regular session gained 25.25 points from open to close (+0.41%) and 67.00 points from the prior cash close to today’s cash close (+1.10%). Volume was decent for a summer day, with a combined 1,001,331 contracts traded across Globex, regular, and cleanup.
Market Tone & Notable Factors:
The tone leaned bullish throughout most of the session, particularly following the strong response off the 10:05 AM low. Dip-buying remained active, and the stair-stepped structure of higher highs through the day supported upward momentum. However, the inability to hold highs late in the session suggested some profit-taking or hedging ahead of potential catalysts.
Market-on-Close (MOC) data reflected a modest bearish imbalance. At 3:59 PM, the imbalance registered -$944M with 60.3% of dollar flow favoring sells and a -55.6% symbol imbalance. While this did not cross the ±66% threshold for extreme signals, the MOC flow did correlate with the minor late-day fade seen from the 4:05 PM high of 6146.25 into the close at 6143.50.
In summary, the ES sustained a constructive bullish bias throughout Tuesday’s trade, bouncing firmly off morning weakness and printing a higher high into the close despite a modest MOC sell skew. Traders will be watching if the 6150–6155 region now acts as resistance or if bulls can push through and continue the upward momentum.
Technical Edge
Fair Values for June 25, 2025:
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SP: 54.46
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NQ: 228.7
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Dow: 332.01
Daily Market Recap 📊
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NYSE Breadth: 69.8% Upside Volume
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Nasdaq Breadth: 80.8% Upside Volume
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Total Breadth: 79.4% Upside Volume
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NYSE Advance/Decline: 73.9% Advance
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Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 76.9% Advance
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Total Advance/Decline: 75.7% Advance
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NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 87 / 16
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Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 234 / 78
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NYSE TRIN: 1.11
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Nasdaq TRIN: 0.68
Weekly Market 📈
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NYSE Breadth: 48.2% Upside Volume
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Nasdaq Breadth: 56.8% Upside Volume
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Total Breadth: 53.5% Upside Volume
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NYSE Advance/Decline: 49.0% Advance
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Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 48.4% Advance
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Total Advance/Decline: 48.7% Advance
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NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 137 / 106
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Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 327 / 266
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NYSE TRIN: 1.01
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Nasdaq TRIN: 0.68
ES
The bull/bear line for ES is at 6132.25. This is the key level to determine directional bias for today. Holding above this level favors the bulls, while a move below it puts the sellers back in control.
ES is currently trading around 6146.75, indicating strength above the bull/bear line. If this strength continues, the upper range target of 6193.50 comes into focus. A break above that could trigger a move toward 6251.00, which marks additional resistance.
On the downside, the first support is at 6071.00, today’s lower range target. If sellers push through that zone, further support lies at 6013.50, with a deeper target near the 5956.00 average.
Additional resistance above includes 6155.25 and 6201.50. These may serve as intraday reaction zones should ES extend higher. To the downside, keep watch on 6075.25 as another near-term support.
The current trade above 6132.25 favors bullish setups on dips, but a break back below that line would open the door for a test of the lower targets.
NQ
The bull/bear line for the NQ is at 22,347.50. This level is crucial for determining directional bias. Currently, NQ is trading at 22,450.50, which places it firmly above the bull/bear line and suggests a bullish tone heading into the session.
The upper intraday range target is 22,623.75. If buyers maintain control above the bull/bear line and can clear the overnight high of 22,448.25, this level becomes a viable target. Beyond that, the next resistance is at 22,883.50.
On the downside, the first level of support is 22,407.75, followed by the bull/bear line at 22,347.50. If sellers can drive price back below this line, look for further weakness down to 22,071.25, which is today’s lower range target. Below that, additional support comes in at 21,811.25.
The trend remains bullish above 22,347.50, with momentum likely to accelerate if 22,623.75 is breached. A move back below the bull/bear line would shift the bias to neutral to bearish and open the path toward the lower range.
Calendars
Economic
Today
Important Upcoming / Recent
Earnings
Upcoming
Recent
Trading Room Summaries
Polaris Trading Group Summary – Tuesday, June 24, 2025
The trading day opened with a clear and bullish outlook from PTGDavid, with both the ES and NQ markets achieving their initial upside target zones in the overnight session. Traders were advised to look for sustained bids above 6070 (ES) and 22130 (NQ) to target further upside levels. Volume and price action were cooperative early, lending validation to the bullish scenarios.
Key Trading Highlights:
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Early Morning Execution: The ES traded within a defined “sandbox” of 6110–6130, with bulls eyeing the 6130 level. PTGDavid highlighted this zone effectively, preparing traders for eventual breakouts.
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A4 & A10 Trades: Multiple scaling opportunities on the A4 and A10 setups provided structured trade management, with some trailing stops being elected. These were productive and demonstrated disciplined execution.
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NQ Trade Success: The NQ Open Range Long achieved full target fulfillment, reinforcing the efficacy of the morning plan.
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Range Target Almost Hit: The ES came within 1 tick of the 6155.50 projected range target, a testament to the accuracy of the day’s forecasting. PTGDavid humorously reminded the room: “Don’t be a dick for a tick!”
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Call Wall Impact: Price action repeatedly tested the 6151 CALL WALL, which proved “impenetrable,” containing upward moves late into the day despite continued buying pressure.
Educational and Motivational Notes:
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David shared strong trading philosophy insights, including the importance of consistency, responsibility, and daily commitment.
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Emphasis was placed on understanding probability over rushing results — a key mindset shift for traders seeking longevity.
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Community members exchanged encouragement, with a supportive tone carrying through the day.
Market Context:
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Despite some mid-session consolidation and “ho-hum” action, the overall tone was constructive, pointing toward a grind back to all-time highs.
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A Market-On-Close buy imbalance of $320M added late-session fuel, nearly pushing ES to its full target.
Takeaway Lessons:
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Precision planning and patience pay off — the near-perfect hit on range targets proves the strategy’s strength.
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Emotional discipline and trade management (e.g., A4/A10 scaling) were reinforced as key elements of successful trading.
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Staying committed to your setup, and not chasing, was modeled effectively today.
Overall, a well-structured, technically sound trading day with meaningful lessons and positive trade outcomes.
Discovery Trading Group Room Preview – Wednesday, June 25, 2025
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S&P 500 Momentum: The index is reapproaching its all-time high (6285.75, set Dec 12, 2024), buoyed by easing tariff fears. 8 of 10 Wall Street firms have upgraded 2025 forecasts after previous tariff-driven downgrades in April.
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Bond Market Concerns: The U.S. faces $1T in additional Treasury supply through 2025 amid a shifting investment landscape, reduced foreign demand, and growing federal deficits from Trump’s proposed tax-cut/spending bill.
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Geopolitical Jolt: In a surprising move, Trump authorized Chinese purchases of Iranian oil to stabilize the Middle East, raising questions about U.S. sanctions policy. The announcement caught both oil traders and federal agencies off guard.
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Tariff Tensions: The EU signaled retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods if baseline 10% U.S. tariffs remain. Talks are ongoing ahead of a July 9 deadline, but negotiations are reportedly strained.
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Earnings & Events: Premarket earnings from GIS and PAYX; post-market from JEF and MU. NVDA holds its shareholder meeting. Key data today: New Home Sales (10:00am ET), Crude Inventories (10:30am ET). Powell testifies before the Senate at 10:00am ET.
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Market Levels: ES trades within its uptrend channel, well above its 200-day MA (5966.25). Watch resistance at 6385/90 and support at 6020/23, 5988/91, and 5594/99.
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Volatility Outlook: Volatility eased Tuesday but remains elevated. The ES 5-day ADR is 84.75 points. No clear whale positioning overnight.
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Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.
Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!
This post goes out as an email to our subscribers every day and is posted for free here around 2 PM ET. To get your real-time copy, sign up for the free or premium version here: Opening Print Subscribe.
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