Fryday – NHOTC – Teeing up for next week OPEX

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Our View

Quiet days lead to busy days especially when they fall on a Friday option expirations, especially after a day of consolidation above the big figure at 5000.00. I don’t have the background that Jeff Hirsch from Stock Trader’s Almanac or Rich Miller from Handel Stats does. I know they both see the election year as being up and I agree but there haven’t been any real speed bumps yet. I saw a few posts on blow-off tops but as I said, they tend to be hard to pick.

Our Lean

It’s been a quiet week and if I say today will be it won’t end up that way. The average RTH 3- day range is 22.83 points, the 5-day is 35.40 points, and the 7-day is 44.64 points, I lean toward the latter. Unless I am missing something, we should see a range expansion today. If the ES gaps up 10 to 15 higher, I gotta sell it. If the ES gaps 10 to 15 lower, I am a buyer. If it does neither, I want to sell the early rallies and buy the 20- to 30-point pullback.

MiM and Daily Recap

The ES traded in a 12.5-point range from 5003.75 up to 5016.25 on 155k contracts traded (low) and opened Thursday’s regular session at 5013.25. After the open, the ES rallied up to 5016.00 and then dropped a quick 4 points and basically stayed within 3-4 points of the vwap for the first hour of trading. At 10:43, the ES dropped to 5005.50 before trading up to 5014.00, a lower high, at 11:02, and then back down to a new low by 2 ticks at 5005.00 at 11:32. Everything was in slow motion back and fill. After the low, the ES slowly got bid up to 5015.75 at 1:42, one tick off the high of the day, and then dropped a few points down to 5008.00 at 2:40. At 3:32, the ES finally broke out to a new high at 5018.25 as the early imbalance showed $470 million to buy. After the pop, the ES pulled back to the 5012.25 area at 3:49 and traded 5013.50 as the NYSE 3:50 order imbalance showed $1.7 billion to sell and traded 5019 on the 4:00 cash close. After 4:00, the ES sold off down to 5013.75 and settled at 4914.50, down 1 point or 0.02% on the day. The NQ settled at 17,860.25, up 5.25 points or +0.03%, the YM settled at 38,01.00, up 27 points or 0.07%. and the RTY settled at 1,986.00, up 28.50 points or up 1.46% on the 5:00 futures close.

In the end, there was some trade but overall it was a choppy mess until the late-day buy program hit. In terms of the ES’s overall tone, it was a rest day. In terms of the ES’s overall trade., volume was low,155k traded on Globex and 789k on the day session for a total of 944k contracts traded. I would have to go back and look at the volume stats but I do not think I have not seen under 1 million contracts traded during a non-holiday, full session in a long time. If one thing is clear, the ES is too firm to sell and too high to buy.

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Technical Edge

HandelStats Levels:
Close to the bell the ES managed to breakout and this morning in early trade (globex) the ES traded above 5020, indicating a next move towards 2037 with an in between target of 5028.

We repeat that levels are still key.

The buy signal from 4916 gets cancelled on a close below 4994.

Trading range for today: 5009 – 5028

Below 5009: 4994 – 4982 – 4970 – 4960 – 4945 – 4936 – 4920 – 4890 – 4872 – 4860

Above 5028: 5037- 5046

Guest Posts

Goldman Sachs

Why US sports betting could become a $45 billion business

US sports betting has rapidly grown into a $10 billion industry since a 2018 Supreme Court decision allowed states to legalize the practice. Significant expansion could lie ahead, according to Goldman Sachs Research.

Americans will legally spend $45 billion on sports betting each year once the market is mature, forecasts Ben Andrews, the head of leisure and travel research for Goldman Sachs Research in Europe, where legal sports betting companies have a longer history. “We expect growth to be driven by a combination of new state openings and a higher share of the consumer wallet being spent on sports betting over time,” he says.

Noah Naparst, who evaluates sports betting companies for Goldman Sachs Asset Management, expects that parlays (which combine multiple wagers into a single bet) and in-game betting will make up an increasing share of the action.

“The future of sports betting is the convergence of media and sports and betting,” Naparst predicts. “You’re watching a basketball game in your betting app, and a player is about to take a free throw. The odds that he or she makes it pop up on screen, and the app asks, ‘Do you want to do this bet or not?’ That’s where the industry is heading.”

How significant will Sunday’s Super Bowl be? Naparst says that while it shouldn’t have an outsized effect on revenues, given operators’ diversification, the game is “quite significant from a customer acquisition and visibility standpoint.”

Wyckoff AM Turn:

Disclaimer: For educational use only. I’m not dispensing financial advice. We are having an intellectual conversation (you and I) on the topic of trading the Emin futures using the Lens of Wyckoff Principles and the Eyes of WB’s Clock. The clock that controls all turns intraday, every day!

Yesterday’s Technical Review using

WB’s Emini Clock and Wyckoff’s Tape Reading Principles

Some traders in chat were talking about the day as flipping to the other side. As for me, if you feel you need to flip it then flip it. However, by my eyes, it did not need flipping. It’s like WB would say; “Shooting elephants with needles.” I think he’d say that instead of saying you’re full of it.

The day before was bullish. That makes the next day Choppy / Sideways. Bulls just need to hold their gains. The bears did not really have an edge on the previous day. The Composite Man was not looking to take price either way. Bullfish and Tunna’s were on the sidelines. It was the Sardenees, the man in the seat, the floor traders that were picking each other’s pockets.

The spill down sealed around center time 9:40 am. Next the AM HIGH. It’s Debbie Day. We could have a Link a Stink or a Wedge Zoom. Odds though did not favor either. It was going to be sideways choppy trading.

We’d like to see the AM HIGH take out the previous close but it did not. The next turn MID AM LOW comes in center time 10:30 am and sets the new low of day. Notice the volume. Also, notice the Globex low was untouched. See the volume expand as price moves up? That’s bullish price behavior.

We have the lunch high and then the mid pm low. Notice the mid pm low is a higher low than the AM LOW. What is that? That’s higher lows and higher highs. And that’s what the clock printed yesterday. That’s why I say the day was S4H day. Where was the high of day? Last hour last print.

This content is 100 percent Human Made Organic (HMO)

Looking Forward to February 9, 2024

Today’s Stop: Ideal 20% ATR of 40; 4 to 8 points or 1% to 2% of trading account value.

Tone / Sentiment : Composite Man is unable to gain a following at these highs. Volume less than 700K lots. Potential Bullish Sideway.

Strategy: At the close price spiked up and then traded back. It’s a Friday and a new cycle. Need to see price pull back and gain some support. If price decides to print a new all time high need to see volume increase on the print.

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