Dan @ GTC Traders

The GTC Sample Portfolio … 2025 and 2026 … Part IV

We have had three previous entries discussing the GTC Sample Portfolio’s performance. Both how we performed in 2025, and then how we are looking ahead to 2026. We were interrupted last week from continuing this series, as I had to fly out of town on a family emergency. But as we have returned, we can finish the topic this week.

In Part I, we discussed overall portfolio performance. As the portfolio itself is comprised of three programs, in Part II we then discussed the first third of the portfolio; the Equity Fixed Income Hybrid Core program. Next, in Part III we discussed the Long-Short Valuation Account. Let’s discuss the final portion, our short-term trading program.

The Short-Term Trading Account in 2025

As we have previously stated, we are looking for linearity, rather than absolute returns. The first two programs were engineered. The third was assumed.

And as we mentioned in this article, perhaps we made too many assumptions, and a tad bit of arrogance bit us as we began the short-term trading account in 2025. We were positive. We made money.

But again, we were aiming for linearity, and we were not happy at all with the volatility of the return series. We assumed that nearly 30 years of discretionary trading experience each would be enough. So we weren’t working with a formal framework, or codified structure. Just judgment. It wasn’t reckless. It wasn’t disastrous. It was profitable. But it was undisciplined relative to the standard we set elsewhere in the portfolio. So it wasn’t meeting the objective. The risk-adjusted metrics were all over the place.

So we introduced two programs specifically designed for the GTC Sample Portfolio:

Both were engineered from the ground up for the GT Traders brand. This avoids conflicts with anything else we may be doing. And both were turned for this particular environment, which is to say: a linear return profile.

If you look at the entire short-term trading program performance grid ..

I’m sure you can almost see where we the return profile jumped in that image from a more volatile return series, to one that is more linear.

And to be sure, those two programs (the 10-Year Delta-Skewed Arbitrage Program, and Quad Trading Program) are not the only two programs running within the short-term trading account.

The 10-Year Delta-Skewed Arbitrage Program only comprises about 7% of the total Short-Term Trading Account …

And the Quad Trading Program is only 21% of the total Short-Term Trading Account …

I really want to emphasize this next point …

We could get greater returns in the short-term trading account by simply giving those two programs a greater percentile allocation to the capital in the short-term trading account. And eventually, we will.

Nothing should remain static in any portfolio. It adjusts to greater market conditions. As will the above two programs. Even the models within those programs will change, and to aim for greater returns in the future, as well as the program structure itself

But that time is not now. For now? We are running the 10 Year Delta-Skew Arbitrage Program at about a 7% allocation of the capital in the Short-Term Trading account. And the Quad Trading Program at about a 21% allocation of the Short-Term Trading account. We also have a small ‘Carry’ placed within the account, as well as room for option trades and what we call ‘relationship trades’.

For now, know that we adjusted how the short-term trading account is running in 2025, to meet our objective, and those are the allocations.

Looking to 2026 and the Overall Portfolio

So … look at the overall portfolio to see how we have deliberately tuned it for a linear return profile.

We have a core of assets, which are long only. But they are also hedged up during times of market turmoil. LONG CORE … HEDGED …

Then we have a Long-Short Valuation Account that for the current market? Is running a Program at 100% that is only looking for shorts against the market … SHORT-ONLY

That is probably one of the single best short-only programs we’ve seen out there. We’re willing to be corrected if someone can point to something that is currently running better than the above. Regardless … to repeat … we have the Equity Fixed Income Hybrid Core running LONG-CORE HEDGED, albeit conservatively. We have a fantastic SHORT ONLY PROGRAM. If you add those two things together what do you have?

You got it. Smoothed out returns in a portfolio wherein two different sections are purposefully built to literally work against what the other is doing.

And we add in the above short-term trading account to smooth out the entire return series.

And in 2026, when the performance is there? We’re going to tweek both the 10-Year Delta-Skew Arbitrage Program, and the Quad Program.

All to maintain, at least in this environment? That linear return series.

Until next time, stay safe and trade well …

Geopolitics are playing an increasingly important role in markets for metals, which rallied sharply at the beginning of this year. In this special issue of Briefings, our analysts explain the key drivers for precious metals like gold, as well as for base metals that are used in infrastructure and defense, such as copper and nickel.
▪ Investors appear to be turning to “hard assets” in the face of growing uncertainty, and some metals like gold and copper could be particularly well positioned.
▪ Higher prices—and more volatility—could be ahead for the gold market.
▪ Why nickel soared: Indonesia, which controls more than 60% of the global nickel mining supply, spurred a rally by signalling supply constraints.
▪ Briefings Brainteaser: How much silver is held in London’s vaults?

What’s Driving Metals Markets?
Metals prices rallied last year, and most have had a strong start in 2026, too.

As geopolitical uncertainty increases, there are signs of growing investor demand for physical assets, according to Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research.

“Hard assets are tangible, physical items that have intrinsic value, including commodities, real estate, infrastructure, and equipment, and tend to hold value over time, especially during inflation or economic uncertainty,” Struyven writes in a research report.

That said, metals may gain more from the shift to hard assets than energy commodities.

In part, this is because metals markets are relatively small, particularly in comparison with the bonds and equities that dominate investor portfolios. Open interest in the global copper market is around 135 times smaller than the amount of outstanding privately owned US Treasuries.

What’s Driving Metals Markets?
Metals prices rallied last year, and most have had a strong start in 2026, too.

As geopolitical uncertainty increases, there are signs of growing investor demand for physical assets, according to Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research.

“Hard assets are tangible, physical items that have intrinsic value, including commodities, real estate, infrastructure, and equipment, and tend to hold value over time, especially during inflation or economic uncertainty,” Struyven writes in a research report.

That said, metals may gain more from the shift to hard assets than energy commodities.

In part, this is because metals markets are relatively small, particularly in comparison with the bonds and equities that dominate investor portfolios. Open interest in the global copper market is around 135 times smaller than the amount of outstanding privately owned US Treasuries.

And while higher energy prices tend to incentivize shale oil and gas producers to increase their output, the supply of precious metals and copper is constrained. Gold mine production is stable and largely unresponsive to price. In addition, nearly all the gold that’s ever been mined still exists, and this above-ground stock dwarfs annual mine production. For copper, it takes around 17 years from mine discovery for production to begin.

Finally, metals are easy to store, making them less vulnerable to storage capacity limits than energy and agriculture commodities.

“Our analysis suggests that the investor rotation in hard assets can keep several metals prices high for longer, including above what physical fundamentals justify, which we think is the case right now for copper,” Struyven writes.

BTS Levels:

ESH2026

The bull/bear line for the ES is at 6891.50. This is the key level that must be reclaimed for bullish momentum to resume. Acceptance above this level shifts short-term sentiment back to the upside, while continued trade below keeps sellers in control.

ES is currently trading around 6872.25, holding below the bull/bear line and showing early weakness in the Globex session. As long as price remains under 6891.50, rallies into this area are likely to find sellers. Initial resistance comes in at 6891.50, followed by 6925.75 and 6943.75. A sustained break above 6943.75 opens the door to 6961.50, our upper intraday range target. If momentum builds above 6961.50, the next major upside objective sits at 7027.25.

On the downside, first support is 6862.75, followed by 6848.75. A break below 6848.75 exposes 6821.50, which is our lower intraday range target. If 6821.50 fails to hold, expect an extension toward 6755.75. That level represents a key downside reference and would signal expanded volatility if tested.

Overall, the market remains bearish below 6891.50. Bulls need acceptance back above this level to regain control and target 6961.50. Until that happens, rallies are suspect and downside probes toward 6821.50 remain in play.

NQH2026

The bull/bear line for NQ is at 24,939.50. This is the key pivot for today’s session. Holding below this level keeps sellers in control, while acceptance back above it shifts momentum back to the bulls.

NQ is currently trading around 24,853.50 in the overnight session, positioning price below the bull/bear line. As long as price remains under 24,939.50, rallies into that level are likely to find resistance. A failure to reclaim it opens the door to a rotation down toward 24,773.75, followed by 24,700.75. Below that, our lower range target for today sits at 24,596.75. A sustained break under 24,596.75 exposes 24,274.25 as a deeper downside objective.

On the upside, bulls need a clean reclaim and hold above 24,939.50 to regain control. If acceptance builds above this pivot, look for a push toward 25,282.25, which is the upper intraday range target. Intermediate resistance comes in near 25,128.25. A strong move through 25,282.25 would signal expansion and could open the path toward 25,604.50.

Overall, the tone remains bearish below 24,939.50. Trade location carefully around this pivot. Acceptance above favors pullback buying toward 25,282.25, while continued rejection below favors selling rallies targeting 24,596.75.

“Upside targets fulfilled… anticipating early MATD rhythms.”

“All Open Range plays are now closed… TRIFECTA Winning Day.”

“Controlled demolition.”

“ALWAYS STAY ALIGNED with Dominant Direction.”

“If one follows their rules, it gives less ammo to one’s inner critic.”

“Fundamentally we are trading our personal beliefs about our ability to manage uncertainty.”

Macro Focus

Fed Minutes Highlights

Political / Headline Risk

Corporate News

Earnings

ES Technical Overview

Key ES Levels

Market remains rangebound but compressed — watch for expansion as data and Fed commentary hit.