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Green Gains: ES and NQ Rally on St. Patrick’s Day Rollover
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Our View
The ES and NQ opened higher, sold off, and then started moving back in their initial direction—up. A large part of this was due to the start of the rollover. At one point, the ESH/ESM volume was 1 million contracts each, meaning a large percentage of the trading activity was the roll. This created what I call “thin-to-win” conditions.
Plus, it was St. Patrick’s Day! Either way, the holiday, the roll, and all the buy stops helped push the ES and NQ up. In my book, there is little to be said, the ES and NQ were oversold and overdue to rally. The YM gained 1% after last Friday’s rally, while the ES and NQ closed up 0.75% and +0.64% despite a weaker-than-forecast retail sales number.
All I can say is other than Canada saying it would cut off electricity to 1.5 million customers on the East Coast as the Trump tariff headlines were quiet after the ES’s first correction since late 2023.
I asked GROK on Twitter when the last 10% corrections were in the S&P 500 and it came up with this. I used GROK because it’s pretty accurate.
Recent S&P 500 Corrections (10% Declines)
Recent S&P 500 Corrections (10% Declines)
February 19, 2025 – March 13, 2025 (Recent Correction)
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Peak: 6,123 (February 19, 2025)
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Trough: ~5,521.51 (March 13, 2025, down 10.1%)
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Decline: 10.1%
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Details: The S&P 500 entered correction territory on March 13, closing at 5,521.51, down 10.1% from its February 19 high. This rapid drop was attributed to economic uncertainty, tariff threats, and shifting investor sentiment following a strong start to the year. By this point, the index had erased its post-election gains from November 2024.
July 31, 2023 – October 27, 2023
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Peak: ~4,588 (July 31, 2023)
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Trough: ~4,129 (October 27, 2023, down 10.3%)
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Decline: 10.3%
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Details: This was the last correction prior to 2025, driven by the Federal Reserve signaling prolonged high interest rates to combat inflation. It took roughly three months to bottom out, with a recovery following shortly after.
January 3, 2022 – October 12, 2022 (Bear Market, Exceeding 10%)
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Peak: 4,796.56 (January 3, 2022)
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Trough: 3,583.07 (October 12, 2022, down 25.3%)
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Decline: 25.3%
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Details: While this started out as a correction, it deepened into a full bear market (20%+ decline). It’s included here as it passed the 10% threshold early in 2022. The decline was linked to inflation fears, Fed rate hikes, and geopolitical tensions. The full recovery took about 21 months.
February 19, 2020 – March 23, 2020 (Bear Market, Exceeding 10%)
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Peak: 3,386.15 (February 19, 2020)
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Trough: 2,237.40 (March 23, 2020, down 33.9%)
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Decline: 33.9%
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Details: Triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic, this was a swift correction that turned into a bear market in just over a month. The S&P 500 recovered remarkably fast, regaining its peak by August 2020.
September 20, 2018 – December 24, 2018
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Peak: 2,930.75 (September 20, 2018)
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Trough: 2,351.10 (December 24, 2018, down 19.8%)
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Decline: 19.8%
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Details: This correction nearly hit bear market status, driven by rising interest rates and trade war concerns. It bottomed out on Christmas Eve and rebounded in early 2019.
January 26, 2018 – February 8, 2018
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Peak: 2,872.87 (January 26, 2018)
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Trough: 2,581.00 (February 8, 2018)
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Decline: 10.2%
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Details: A rapid correction sparked by inflation worries and a spike in bond yields. It was short-lived with the market recovering within months.
April 29, 2011 – October 3, 2011
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Peak: 1,363.61 (April 29, 2011)
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Trough: 1,099.23 (October 3, 2011)
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Decline: 19.4%
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Details: Driven by the European debt crisis and U.S. debt ceiling debates, this correction approached bear market levels before recovering.
April 23, 2010 – July 2, 2010
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Peak: 1,217.28 (April 23, 2010)
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Trough: 1,022.58 (July 2, 2010)
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Decline: 16.0%
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Details: Known as the “Flash Crash” period, this correction was fueled by Eurozone instability and a sudden market drop on May 6, 2010.
January 15, 2008 – Early 2008 (Bear Market, Exceeding 10%)
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Peak: 1,549.38 (October 9, 2007, broader context)
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Trough: Declined past 10% by early 2008, eventually hitting 683.38 (March 9, 2009)
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Decline: Over 50% (full bear market)
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Details: The Global Financial Crisis began with a correction in early 2008 and escalated into a severe bear market. The 10% decline occurred early in the downturn.
July 19, 2007 – August 15, 2007
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Peak: 1,553.08 (July 19, 2007)
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Trough: 1,370.60 (August 15, 2007)
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Decline: 11.9%
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Details: An early warning sign of the financial crisis, driven by subprime mortgage concerns. This was a precursor to the larger 2008 decline.
There were only ten 10% corrections in 23 years!
Observations on Market Corrections
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Frequency: Historically, S&P 500 corrections of 10% or higher occur roughly once every 1-2 years, though timing is irregular. The gap between the October 2023 and March 2025 corrections (about 17 months) aligns with this average.
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Severity: Of the last ten instances where the S&P has dropped 10%, several escalated beyond 15% or into bear markets (20%+), notably in 2022, 2020, and 2008. The 2025 correction, as of March 17, sits at 10.1% but could deepen.
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Recovery: Recovery times vary widely – ranging from a few months (e.g. 2028) to over two years (e.g. 2008-2009). The average correction bottoms in about 4-5 months and recovers in a similar timeframe, per historical norms.
The bottom line is down 10% has always lured buyers in but a 20% correction also brings the buyers but as you can see, they are harder to come by.
A 20% correction in the S&P 500 is commonly referred to as a bear market, defined as a decline of 20% or more from its most recent peak. Below are the last instances of 20%+ corrections in the S&P 500 based on historical data up to March 17, 2025.
Recent 20%+ Corrections (Bear Markets)
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2022 Bear Market (-25.3%) – Fed hikes & inflation.
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2020 COVID Crash (-33.9%) – Pandemic lockdowns.
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2007-2009 Financial Crisis (-56.8%) – Subprime mortgage collapse.
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2000-2002 Dot-Com Bust (-49.1%) – Tech bubble burst.
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1987 Black Monday (-33.5%) – Sudden program-trading crash.
In 28 years, there have only been 5 bear markets.
I’m not here to fight City Hall—if the ES and NQ are going up, I want to go along for the ride. Yesterday’s numbers were weaker than expected, but not weak enough to hold the markets down. Late in the day, both the ES and NQ attempted to rally, but the ES dropped 30 points into the cash close, while the NQ fell 130 points.
While I consider myself a pessimistic bull, the stats above speak for themselves—10% and 20% corrections are few and far between!
Our Lean
Housing Starts, Building Permits, Import/Export, Industrial Production, and Capacity Utilization. Right now, the ES is taking bad news and making good of it. How long will that last? I don’t know, but right now, the lower volumes are favoring the upside.
Everyone is wondering what the impact of Trump’s tariffs will be. I found this story on Reuters, and I think it’s in line with what I thought—slower growth. Fed officials prepare to lay down marker on impact of Trump policies
Our lean: Get past the numbers, and I think we could see higher prices. Yesterday, it looked like it was a rotation out of the NQ and into the RTY and YM. It’s a different rotation every day. That said, I think you can sell the early rip and buy the pullbacks with tight stops. It may have been a quiet day for headlines yesterday but today is a new day.
MiM and Daily Recap
The S&P 500 futures (ES) began the session with an early move higher, establishing a high of 5701.50 at 8:42 AM before a sharp pullback to 5696.50 at 9:03 AM. The weakness continued, pushing ES lower to 5684.00 at 9:27 AM before a brief recovery attempt. The market climbed back to 5714.25 by 9:48 AM but failed to sustain upward momentum, ultimately reaching a new high of 5726.25 at 9:54 AM, reflecting a 42.25-point advance (+0.74%).
After setting this high, the ES retraced to 5704.75 by 10:03 AM before another attempt higher, peaking at 5725.00 at 10:12 AM. However, bullish pressure waned, and the market declined to 5696.50 at 11:06 AM, erasing prior gains. Buyers stepped in again, lifting ES to 5714.50 at 12:12 PM before another downturn took it to 5695.75 at 12:45 PM.
A renewed rally in the afternoon pushed ES to 5745.75 at 12:45 PM, and the bulls began to run again, putting in the high of the day at 5759.75 by 2:51 PM, a gain of 64 points from the 12:45 PM low. However, selling pressure returned, sending the market lower into the close with a $3 billion sell showing on the MIM, shedding 27 points (-0.52%) from its peak.
The session-to-session change indicated a net gain, with the ES closing at 5732.75, up 42.75 points (+0.93%) from the previous day’s cash close. The regular trading session saw a 43.50-point gain (+0.76%) from open to close, reflecting solid buying interest throughout the day.
Market sentiment leaned bullish for most of the session, with buyers actively defending dips and extending gains into midday. However, late-session weakness coincided with a significant market-on-close (MOC) imbalance of -$3.016 billion, with 76.7% of the flow on the sell side. This imbalance weighed on the closing print, contributing to the late-session decline.
Overall, the session concluded with a net positive performance, but the strong MOC selling suggests caution for the upcoming session, as late-day weakness could spill over into the next trading day. Volume was low due to St. Patrick’s Day, with the entire session failing to reach a million contracts, totaling just 813K traded.
Technical Edge
MrTopStep Levels:
Fair Values for March 19, 2025:
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SP: 55.3
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NQ: 218.63
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Dow: 371.11
Daily Market Recap 📊
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NYSE Breadth: 88% Upside Volume
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Nasdaq Breadth: 65% Upside Volume
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Total Breadth: 81% Upside Volume
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NYSE Advance/Decline: 81% Advance
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Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 71% Advance
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Total Advance/Decline: 76% Advance
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NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 62 / 37
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Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 104 / 142
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NYSE TRIN: 0.64
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Nasdaq TRIN: 1.32
Weekly Market 📈
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NYSE Breadth: 47% Upside Volume
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Nasdaq Breadth: 52% Upside Volume
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Total Breadth: 50% Upside Volume
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NYSE Advance/Decline: 32% Advance
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Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 33% Advance
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Total Advance/Decline: 33% Advance
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NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 85 / 345
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Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 132 / 804
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NYSE TRIN: 1.14
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Nasdaq TRIN: 0.94
Thanks for reading, PTGDavid
Trading Room Summaries
Polaris Trading Group Summary – Monday, March 17, 2025
Morning Session: Rollover, Initial Longs, and Open Range Trades
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Technical Setup & Key Levels:
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PTGDavid noted both lower and upper target zones were fulfilled per the Daily Trade Strategy.
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Bearish scenario: Below 5680, targeting 5660-5655.
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Bullish scenario: Above 5680, targeting 5695-5700.
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Rollover to the June (M) contract was confirmed early, with some data feed issues (Rithmic offline), but resolved by 8:53 AM.
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Early lean favored longs, with an Open Range Long trade triggering at 5716.
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First major target zone (5726-5731) was set.
Mid-Morning: Strong Long Play and ATR7 Confirmation
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Initial long trades worked well:
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5706 Open Range High held as support, allowing for renewed buying.
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ATR7 confirmation at 5706—Jimbo pointed out its consistency, and David confirmed the A7 backtest Long played out well.
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Next key level 5726-5731 held strong, showing bullish continuation.
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Market consolidated, awaiting the next breakout.
Afternoon Session: Bulls Take Control
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Slow grind higher resumed:
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5731 target hit at 1:45 PM (called out earlier at 9:45 AM).
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5743 target fulfilled at 2:15 PM.
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“St. Paddy helping the Bulls today” – strong bullish trend into the close.
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Support held at Central Pivot, confirming market structure strength.
Closing & Lessons Learned
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Market-on-Close (MOC) showed a $3 Billion Sell imbalance, though the bullish momentum remained intact throughout the day.
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Key takeaways:
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ATR7 levels provided solid entries.
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Open Range strategy worked well, especially in the early session.
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Sticking with the trend paid off, as bullish targets were consistently hit.
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Rollover sessions can be choppy, but the bullish structure remained strong throughout.
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Another strong trading day with precise execution on predefined levels.
Discovery Trading Group Room Preview – Tuesday, March 18, 2025
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Markets Rally Ahead of Fed Decision:
The S&P 500 gained 0.6% on Monday, marking its second consecutive day of gains, while the Dow Jones climbed over 350 points (0.6%). The Nasdaq saw a modest 0.3% increase, with Nvidia (NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA) lagging.Key Market Developments:
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Retail Sales Miss: Weaker-than-expected retail sales, coupled with a downward revision of January’s data, bolstered hopes for potential rate cuts.
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New Fed Banking Cop: President Trump appointed Michelle Bowman, former Kansas banking commissioner and Fed governor, as the Fed’s top banking regulator.
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Energy Policy Shift: Trump emphasized boosting U.S. electricity production through “clean coal” to counter China’s energy advantage. Meanwhile, China continues its push toward renewable energy, aiming to peak emissions before 2030.
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Nvidia’s GTC Conference: Nvidia’s annual GTC event begins today, featuring CEO Jensen Huang’s keynote. He is expected to unveil the Blackwell Ultra AI chip, offering a major performance boost.
Corporate Earnings & Economic Data:
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Premarket Earnings: Tencent Music Entertainment (TME), ESLT, BEKE, and XPEV.
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After-Hours Earnings: ZTO Express (ZTO).
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Economic Calendar: Reports on Building Permits, Housing Starts, and Import Prices (8:30 AM ET), followed by Capacity Utilization & Industrial Production (9:15 AM ET).
Market Sentiment & Technicals:
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Volatility Decline: The ES 5-day average daily range stands at 117.25 points, with potential contraction as traders await the Fed’s policy announcement.
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No Whale Bias: Large trader volume remains too light for significant directional bias.
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S&P 500 Technicals: Monday’s move broke the short-term downtrend, signaling the potential start of a short-term uptrend.
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ES -Week to Week
The bull/bear line for ES is at 5721.50. This is the critical level that must be reclaimed for bullish momentum to continue. If price holds above this level, we can look for potential buying opportunities.
Currently, ES is trading around 5719.50, just below the bull/bear line, indicating a possible struggle to maintain bullish sentiment. If price remains under 5721.50, expect further downside pressure toward 5678.75. A break below this level could extend the decline toward the next support levels at 5660.00 and 5643.50 which is our range low for the day.
On the upside, resistance is at 5732.25 and 5759.75. Above that, the next key level to watch is 5799.50, which aligns with a range target. If ES can reclaim and hold above 5799.50, it could attempt to push toward 5873.25.
Long-term bull/bear line is 5949.75. We won’t reverse our long-term trend until that line is crossed.
NQ – Week to Week
The bull/bear line for NQ is at 20,008.00. This is the key level that must be reclaimed for bullish momentum to resume. If price remains below this level, expect continued selling pressure.
Currently, NQ is trading around 19,975.75, showing weakness below the bull/bear line. If the price fails to move above 20,008.00, the next support levels to watch are 19,885.50 and 19,760.50. A break below these levels could push the market towards 19,704.75, our range low for the day, and potentially down to 19,419.25.
On the upside, resistance is at 20,038.25, and above that, 20,167.75. The upper range target for today is 20,311.25. If NQ can reclaim 20,008.00 and hold above it, a test of these resistance levels is likely. Sustained strength above 20,311.25 would signal a shift in sentiment towards bullish.
Overall, the trend remains bearish below 20,008.00, and caution is warranted unless this level is reclaimed.
Our longer-term bull/bear line sits at 21,015
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Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.
Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!
This post goes out as an email to our subscribers every day and is posted for free here around 2 PM ET. To get your real-time copy, sign up for the free or premium version here: Opening Print Subscribe.
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