by Danny Riley

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If you see a pullback, buy it.

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Our View

The weather is going to impede travelers returning from their Thanksgiving holiday. This will work in favor of the upside. I still think 6080-6100 is on tap but I’m getting concerned about the lack of any ‘real’ pullbacks.

Trump continues his worldwide tariff posturing, but that seems to have little effect on the markets as they continue to climb on the back of November’s momentum. The pullbacks are getting smaller and smaller.

There is fed talk this afternoon and JOLTS data to get through at 10 am ET.

According to economists polled by Reuters, payrolls are expected to climb to 183,000 in November which exceeds forecasts.

Our Lean

After record stock flows and a $2.17 billion jump in construction, the markets have been supercharged and the Fed is set to lower .25 bps. The only thing that comes to mind, is don’t fight the fed. I think we should stay focused on the current price action that has unanimously been buying the pullbacks. It seems like the minor sell-off on Globex has also provided some nice buy opportunities. I think you just keep buying the pullbacks. A big gap-up on Friday could be a good sell op but it won’t last. Stick to your guns, bulls, this rally is not over.

MiM and Daily Recap

The ES traded down to 6036 on Globex at 1:23 AM and ground its way up to open the regular session at 6055.25. After the open, we initially rallied to a quick all-time high at 6062, followed by a dip to 6049.75 at about the 30-minute mark, which proved to be the low of the regular session. With sideways and up-and-down trade, it re-tested this low and held around 11:00 AM, then rallied 15 points to reach another new all-time high of 6065.00 at 12:08 PM.

Slow and sideways trade for a couple of hours gave way to a small downdraft, where it made a higher low at 6056, starting its next upward trajectory and printing its high of the day at 3:29 PM at 6068.50. A small amount of front-running ahead of the 3:50 PM imbalance showed $2.59 billion to sell, but this was absorbed, and we settled at 6063, up 11.5 points or +0.19%.

The NQ settled at 21,211, up 217.50 points or +1.04%. In the end, it was a slow day on light volume, but with a continued push by NQ to try to reclaim its all-time contract high, settling only 15.75 points shy of its all-time close. The ES traded a total of 937K contracts, while the NQ traded 469K.

In the end, the first trading day of December saw both the ES and NQ making another set of new contract highs as they came off the best month for the ES since 2021. This followed the ISM number, which showed a record $2.1 billion jump in construction in October.

In terms of the ES’s overall tone, it was another day of buying every pullback. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, as expected, volume was low at 937K contracts traded.

The yield on the 10-year note settled at 4.139%. Bitcoin continues to trade just under $100,000, settling near Friday’s close at $96,000. Crude oil closed down 0.01%, at $78.83.

Technical Edge

Fair Values for December 3rd, 2024
- SP: 12.98
- NQ: 47.43
- Dow: 101.59

Daily Breadth Data 📊
- NYSE Breadth: 36% Upside Volume
- Nasdaq Breadth: 57% Upside Volume
- Total Breadth: 47% Upside Volume
- NYSE Advance/Decline: 44% Advance
- Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 53% Advance
- Total Advance/Decline: 48% Advance
- NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 134 / 32
- Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 251 / 89
- NYSE TRIN: 1.20
- Nasdaq TRIN: 0.83
Weekly Breadth Data 📈
- NYSE Breadth: 55% Upside Volume
- Nasdaq Breadth: 62% Upside Volume
- Total Breadth: 59% Upside Volume
- NYSE Advance/Decline: 68% Advance
- Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 66% Advance
- Total Advance/Decline: 67% Advance
- NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 582 / 68
- Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 753 / 206
- NYSE TRIN: 1.29
- Nasdaq TRIN: 0.92

Room Summaries

Polaris Trading Group Summary – Monday, December 2, 2024

Key Takeaways:

Market Overview:
- The session opened with the market positioned near all-time highs, and the strategy emphasized potential consolidation and balance after recent large directional moves.
- Overnight action suggested a bearish tone initially, with key levels identified for both the S&P 500 futures (@ES) and Nasdaq futures (@NQ).
- Despite the bearish start, the market displayed resilience and began to stabilize, with bulls eventually taking control.
Highlighted Trades:
- Crude Oil (CL):
  - Early trades in crude oil were effective, with both the first and second targets on a short trade being hit. A subsequent open short reached all targets, showing a clear execution of strategy.
- Nasdaq (@NQ):
  - Successful bull-flag long trades developed off a retest of prior highs, as illustrated in a shared screenshot.
  - The rhythm and structure of @NQ were noted as being more favorable than @ES, offering better trading opportunities.
- S&P 500 (@ES):
  - Price action remained within the identified “sandbox” range for much of the session, with gradual upward movement that aligned with the strategy.
Market Dynamics and Lessons:
- The market demonstrated an “acceptance mode” of the new all-time high zone, suggesting potential stability for future moves.
- The day followed a predictable Cycle Day 2 pattern, characterized by consolidation and balancing as outlined in the DTS Briefing.
- The importance of identifying and waiting for “clean structures” was emphasized as part of disciplined trading.
Key Observations:
- The session was marked by a “slow grind,” reflecting the need for patience in a consolidating market.
- A $2.5 billion Market-on-Close (MOC) sell imbalance was noted late in the day but was easily absorbed, indicating strong market stability.
- The “bulls have the ball,” with the emphasis on avoiding errors that might cede control back to the bears.

Positive Outcomes and Learnings:

Precise execution of strategy in CL and @NQ highlighted the importance of adhering to planned levels and reacting to clear structures.
The patience and understanding of market rhythms allowed traders to navigate a slower market effectively.
Reinforcement of key trading principles: recognizing market acceptance or rejection at critical levels and waiting for clear opportunities.

Final Notes: The day exemplified disciplined trading in a consolidative environment, with traders capitalizing on defined setups and maintaining focus on the broader market context.and enjoy these features

Discovery Trading Group Room Preview – December 3, 2024

Market Overview:
- Technology stocks led the market rally Monday, pushing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 to new all-time highs. Tesla (TSLA) and Meta (META) rose over 3%. November was the strongest month of the year, buoyed by optimism following Donald Trump’s presidential victory.
Corporate Headlines:
- Stellantis (STLA): CEO Carlos Tavares resigned due to poor performance in the Jeep division, highlighting misjudged pricing strategies in the U.S. market.
- Intel (INTL): CEO Pat Gelsinger stepped down after 40 years, forced out by the board amid slow progress transitioning the company towards high-speed, AI-centric chips.
Global Trade Tensions:
- Donald Trump proposed a 100% tariff on BRICS countries in response to their development of “BRICS Pay,” a blockchain-based financial system designed to bypass the U.S. dollar-dependent SWIFT system.
SWIFT Developments:
- SWIFT’s political leverage through sanctions has spurred alternative payment systems. Russia leads the blockchain effort, aiming for early adoption of Visa/Mastercard usage in Russia under BRICS Pay.
Earnings Watch:
- After-hours reports to watch include Salesforce (CRM), Marvell Technology (MRVL), Okta (OKTA), and Pure Storage (PSTG).
Economic Calendar:
- JOLTS Job Openings at 10:00 AM ET.
- Fed speakers:
  - Fed Governor Adriana Kugler at 12:35 PM ET.
  - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee at 3:45 PM ET.
Market Sentiment:
- Volatility: Declined on Monday and remains moderate.
- Whale Activity: Bearish bias into the U.S. session amid elevated overnight large trader volume.
Key Technical Levels for ES Futures:
- Resistance: 6087/90s, 6130/35s.
- Support: 5990/95s, 5870/75s.
- Short-term uptrend channels suggest challenges near the upper trendlines unless supported by bullish JOLTS data. Low volume and volatility expected due to the shortened trading day.
Stay informed with the latest updates and market insights.

ES – Week over Week

The Bullish ride up stays intact with new highs at 6068.50. That remains a line to cross. On the downside, there is 6000 and a hard stop at 5734.25. Intermediate support is at 6025.75

NQ – Week over Week

NQ is still lagging for new highs. We saw some tech selling on the close yesterday, but it was quickly bought up with NVDA moving from a sell imbalance to a buy. Contract high remains at 21340.75 put in on 11/11. Bulls will try to keep prices above the 21000 level and the 20983.75 high from 07/11. Below 21000 is 20854 support