This post goes out as an email to our subscribers every day and is posted for free here around 2 PM ET. To get your real-time copy, sign up for the free or premium version here: Opening Print Subscribe.
I’m a Bull, Not a Sucker: Watching for the Sneaky Thursday Shakeout
Market Structure & Strategy Insights:
VWAP served as a tactical line: Price traded both sides of VWAP; PTGDavid leaned bullish above it, suggesting dip buys were valid as long as VWAP held.
D-Level at 6855–6870 proved sticky: Price could not sustain above, with multiple failed tests throughout the day.
AI & Microsoft News Fake-out: MSFT-related negative news was later debunked. David noted how smart money uses fake news to accumulate inventory on dips—“Bull markets shake off bad news.”
Follow @MrTopStep on Twitter and please share if you find our work valuable!
Our View
I have to be honest—while I still think we’re headed higher, I also don’t remember seeing such an erratic trade in a long time. And I’m not talking about big drops; I’m talking about the 40- to 60-point chop we’ve been stuck in for the last week or so. I think I understand it—but trading it is a different story. Buy or sell the ES or NQ at the wrong time, and you could be out 10 points in one minute.
What I think is going on is what I call ES tape repair, meaning the ES and NQ went up—so much so, and so fast—that they basically need to take a breather: drop, pop, drop again. That kind of action tends to bring in more shorts.
I know I said I wouldn’t rely on AI to write the OP, but… and there’s always a but. I do ask it my own questions and come up with my own stories. Or, if I see a story I think is interesting, I’ll load it into GROK and ask it to recap it. Yes, I could read and summarize it myself—but I can’t market it as accurate.
Today’s story is from Morgan Stanley:
Morgan Stanley’s Bullish Outlook on Nvidia Stock
Morgan Stanley has issued an updated price target on Nvidia (NVDA), signaling strong confidence in the company’s leadership in the AI chip market despite growing competition. Analyst Joe Moore raised the target from $250 to $235 per share, aligning it closely with Wall Street’s consensus of $250.66. With Nvidia’s stock closing at $181.46, this implies roughly 30% upside potential from current levels.
Key Highlights from Morgan Stanley’s Analysis:
-
Dominant Market Share: Nvidia holds 70–95% of the AI accelerator and data-center GPU market, with no significant erosion from rivals like Alphabet (Google) or AMD. Moore described competitive threats as “overstated.”
-
Surging Demand: Businesses are rapidly scaling AI models, driving demand for Nvidia’s GPUs, HBM, and advanced packaging. Supply remains tight, reflecting hyperscalers’ fast AI infrastructure build-outs.
-
End-to-End Edge: Nvidia’s full-stack strength—chip performance, mature software ecosystem, and roadmap—helps reduce AI training time and costs. Major OEMs like Dell, HPE, Supermicro, and Lenovo are building flagship AI servers around Nvidia’s Hopper and Blackwell platforms.
Moore emphasized that Nvidia isn’t just winning on raw power, but by delivering the “best overall cost-and-performance equation,” making it the go-to name for large-scale AI projects.
Broader Analyst Sentiment:
Morgan Stanley’s view fits the broader bullish consensus:
-
Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan have targets around $250
-
Jefferies upgraded from $240 to $250
-
Cantor Fitzgerald raised its target from $240 to $300 (the Street high)
-
The absolute high-end analyst estimate reaches $352
Our View
As of yesterday’s high, the ES has rallied 348.25 points off its 6525.00 low in just 7 sessions. I want to point something out: I’m a bull, but I ain’t no fool—and today is the Thursday before Week 1 options expiration.
When I looked back at September Thursdays, all four were up. But heading into October and November, 6 of the last 7 Thursdays have been lower. I just get the feeling we could see some kind of pullback… maybe even a down day?
Our Lean
It’s 6:45 a.m., and the total ES Globex range is 13.75 points, with a 6870 high. It’s currently trading 6864.00, up 5.25 points and back near a big line of buy stops. My concern is the pullbacks/sell-offs that sometimes occur on the Thursday before the FRYday Week One options expiration.
Up to this point, I’ve been bullish — and I remain in that camp — but I’m concerned we could see some type of drop today.
Our lean: you can sell the early rips and buy the 40- to 60-point pullbacks. 6900–6920 is still on tap. As I’ve said several times this week, 6920 is my near-term objective. But if December plays out like I think it could, ES 7100 is my new end-of-year objective.
Market Recap:
The ES traded in a narrow 20-point range before the API data. It made a 6817.50 low and a 6862.25 high, and opened Wednesday’s regular session at 6829.25, down 10 points or -15%.
After the open, the ES traded 6822.75, rallied up to 6838.75 at 9:40, then sold off down to the RTH low at 6820.25. That low set off a push higher to 6853.75 at 11:00. It then pulled back to 6841.00, rallied up to 6859.50, dropped back below the VWAP to 6840.00 at 11:55, and then rallied 26 points up to 6866.00 at 1:00.
After that high, the ES pulled back to 6858.50 at 1:20, rallied up to 6869.25 at 1:40, 6861.75 at 1:55, then rallied again to 6868.24 at 2:00. It flatlined in a tight 3- to 5-point range until 2:40, when the ES started getting bid up, eventually reaching the high of the day at 6873.25 at 3:10.
Then came the late-day walkaway. At 3:35, the ES traded down to 6865.50, rallied up to a lower high at 6870.00 at 3:45, and then started to drop. It traded 6867.25 as the 3:50 imbalance showed $1.8 billion to sell, dropped to 6859.25, bounced to 6862.50, and then did another 3- to 4-point flatline before settling at 6862.00, up 21.75 points or +0.32%.
The NQ settled at 25,657.50, up 51 points or +0.20%, with both the ES and NQ up 7 of the last 8 sessions and closing at a three-week high.
In the end, the ES and NQ again shook off early weakness and rallied. In terms of overall tone, both were equally firm. In terms of trade, volume was lower, with 1.26 million contracts traded.
DXY 5 Week Low
MiM
The MOC auction effectively began at 15:51, where the tape flipped straight into heavy sell-side control. The imbalance opened at –$1.50B, driven by $3.66B in sells vs. $2.16B in buys, and the symbol distribution confirmed immediate pressure: 701 symbols were net sells, with only 281 net buys across all markets. This was not rotational—this was broad distribution.
From 15:52–15:54, the imbalance held between –$1.47B and –$1.20B, but the composition of symbols remained decisive: sell symbols stayed near 700, while buy symbols held near 280–300. Lean percentages in the –59% to –63% range indicated directional selling rather than a sector-to-sector rotation.
The most aggressive selling hit between 15:55–15:57, where sell volume spiked above $5.5B at the 15:55 peak. Symbol leans pushed into the –60% to –75% zone, with sector-level participation widening.
• S&P 500: 168 buys vs. 251 sells → –63.8% lean.
• NYSE: 233 buys vs. 366 sells → –63.1% lean.
• NASDAQ: More balanced at 47 buys vs. 51 sells → –52% lean, showing rotation instead of liquidation.
Sector breakdown shows where the worst pressure came from:
• Mega-cap tech (S&P/NASDAQ overlap): Selling was heavy but not one-sided—hence the softer NASDAQ lean.
• Broad NYSE sectors (industrials, energy, financials): These made up the bulk of the sell imbalance, reflected in the NYSE’s –63% reading.
• S&P 500 components: The most directional—S&P’s –63.8% leaned deeper than the overall market, signaling programmatic selling across large-cap sectors.
Into 15:58–15:59, sell pressure began to ease, but symbol counts still favored the sellers by wide margins. Even as the final print narrowed to –$448M, the imbalance had already delivered its message: from 15:51 through 15:59, sellers dominated the tape across nearly every major sector, with only the NASDAQ showing true rotation rather than broad liquidation.
Guest Posts:
Dan @ GTC Traders
Record-keeping … record-keeping … RECORD-KEEPING!
( Or … why your own brain can’t be trusted for more than five minutes at a time )
One of the least glamorous … least flashy … at times mind-numbingly boring … but absolutely most foundational habits a trader can cultivate is keeping real, structured performance records. We don’t mean a notebook scribble or a half-updated Excel sheet. We mean proper monthly grids. A VAMI, and the performance metrics that force you to confront the reality of your performance.
Most people don’t want to admit this to themselves. But our brains lie to us. My brain lies to me. Your brain lies to you. And it does so … consistently, and constantly.
And we’re not talking about the big, well-known, long-term cognitive traps like Dunning–Kruger or confirmation bias. We’re talking about something much more subtle, much more temporary, and far more insidious during the rigours of trading week in, and week out.
The Mood-congruent judgment effect.
The Mood-Congruent Judgment Effect
In simple terms, this effect says: Whatever mood you’re in right now colors how you evaluate everything you’re doing right now. Not because the evaluation is accurate. But because your mood can and sometimes will temporarily hijack your judgment.
If you’re in a fleeting good mood. Let’s say you hit not one? But two good winners. And your mind begins to interpret your performance, your setups, your signals, even your “future potential,” far more positively than all of your longer term trade history … or the objective data … warrants. And the opposite is equally true: one minor loss, or some personal stress bleeding into the day? And all of a sudden you’re catastrophizing. The portfolio could be hitting new equity highs, but your mood convinces you that you’re a disaster, and a failure.
This isn’t theory or opinion. Decades of real scientific research (Bower, 1981; Mayer et al. (1992) as well as others) show that positive moods make positive attributes “feel” more valid and more typical, and negative moods amplify the salience of anything that smells even remotely pessimistic.
And this can happen extremely quickly. It can shift your perceptions in minutes, not weeks. It’s not a metacognitive deficit. It’s not a personality flaw. It doesn’t mean you’re a ‘bad’ human, or ‘bad trader’. It’s simply how human affect works.
In trading? This phenomenon is a wrecking ball.
Two wins can inflate your sense of competence. A brief dip in mood can convince you that you’re failing spectacularly. Even as your performance metrics say exactly the opposite. It’s the “affect-as-information” model in action: I feel bad, therefore things must be going badly.
Welllllll ….. not necessarily.
This is why record-keeping matters. It’s not to show off how ‘professional’ you are. It’s about having an external anchor to reality.
Even Veterans Need To Hear This From Time to Time
Some may assume this is a rookie problem. It’s not. If anything, experienced traders? Those of us who have been doing this through many decades and multiple regimes … can be even more vulnerable, because we think we’ve “seen it all” and can “trust our instincts.”
But our ‘instincts’ … in the moment … can be just our emotions in disguise.
A veteran trader can have a phenomenal month … and still convince themselves they’re “slipping.” A newer trader can be hemorrhaging money and somehow believe they’re “just fine.” Both are symptoms of the exact same psychological mechanism: mood coloring self-perception.
Again, this has nothing to do with competence. It has everything to do with something none of us can escape. It’s called: being human.
Anchoring to Objective Reality
This is why, at GTC Traders, we insist and demonstrate structured, standardized, industry-accepted performance metrics.
Monthly grids
VAMI charts
Contextual Summaries
Performance Metrics
At the end of every single month, it all begins with …
( Ending Balance – (Capital Contributions and Withdrawals) ) ) – Beginning Balance ) / Beginning Balance. And you can expand from that point, forward.
And we want to emphasize context. Because numbers rarely tell the entire story by themselves. Take our long/short valuation book since November 2023.
At a quick glance, a trader unfamiliar with the context and objective could easily (and fairly) think:
“Okay. That grid is steady. Sharpe is there. Sort of. But nothing explosive, and perhaps really underperforming in this market”
But once you understand the context that this account has been running a short-only program since November 2023? Most institutional short-only programs are paired with long only portfolios; and they almost intentionally bleed money as a non-correlative pair to the parent portfolio. And then you compare it’s performance to other short-only books (equity or derivatives), it becomes clear (apples to apples … oranges to oranges) that the above performance is not just respectable… it’s exceptional.
So it’s the same data. But the context explains the full picture.
Records and context don’t merely track performance. They defend you against your own temporary psychological distortions. They let you zoom out when your mood tries to zoom in on the wrong thing. They recalibrate the narrative when your emotional state tries to write its own.
Record-keeping Grounds EVERY Professional to Reality.
In any field, be it trading … baseball … football …. jiu-jitsu … or running a business? We keep stats because your perception lies to you, and performance truths live in measurement. Trading is no different. In fact, it’s even more susceptible to emotional misfires because trading operates on a near-continuous feedback loop. A single mood swing can rewrite your internal story. A single metric can rewrite it back.
So keep the grid. Keep the VAMI. Keep the logs. Keep the anchor.
Because mood-driven illusions don’t last long—but they can do a tremendous amount of damage in a very short period of time
Until next time, stay safe and trade well …
Technical Edge
Fair Values for December 4, 2025
-
S&P: 9.73
-
NQ: 41.82
-
Dow: 63.54
Daily Breadth Data 📊
For Wednesday, December 3, 2025
• NYSE Breadth: 70% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 72% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 72% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 72% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 73% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 72% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 123 / 18
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 194 / 107
• NYSE TRIN: 1.08
• Nasdaq TRIN: 1.02
Weekly Breadth Data 📈
For the Week Ending Friday, November 28, 2025
• NYSE Breadth: 69% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 71% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 70% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 85% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 80% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 65% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 207 / 64
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 384 / 256
• NYSE TRIN: 2.29
• Nasdaq TRIN: 1.56
BTS Levels:
ESZ2025
The bull/bear line for the ES is at 6855.25. Trading above this level shifts the tone constructive for continued upside attempts.
ES is currently trading around 6868.25, holding above the bull/bear line. As long as price remains above 6855.25, buyers control the short-term flow.
Immediate resistance sits at 6873.25, followed by the upper range target at 6890.75. A break and hold above 6890.75 opens the door toward 6924.25 and the high resistance band near 6934.50.
On the downside, support begins at 6862 and then 6843. Losing 6855.25 would shift momentum back toward the lower range target at 6819.75. Below that, deeper support sits at 6786.50 and then 6717.50.
Overall tone remains bullish above 6855.25 with upside targets 6890.75 and 6924.25. A break back below 6855.25 puts sellers in control toward 6819.75 and 6786.50.
NQZ2025
The bull/bear line for the NQ is at 25,615.75. Trading above this level favors continuation higher, while slipping back below turns the tone more defensive.
Current price is around 25,663.50 in Globex, holding above the bull/bear line and showing early-session strength. If buyers maintain control above 25,615.75, the next upside magnet is the upper range target at 25,815.75. A break and hold above that opens the door toward 26,003.75 as the next resistance zone.
If the market fades back below 25,615.75, look for sellers to push toward support at 25,416.00, which is the lower range target. Failure there exposes the deeper support layer at 25,227.75.
Additional levels:
-
Resistance above: 25,815.75, then 26,003.75.
-
Support below: 25,416.00 and 25,227.75.
The overnight structure favors buyers as long as NQ holds above 25,615.75, but expect rotation and back-and-fill until RTH confirms direction.
Economic Calendar Today
This Week’s High Importance
Earnings:
Trading Room News:
PTG Room Summary – Wednesday, December 3, 2025
Yesterday’s session was a classic “Wild-Card Session,” as called out early by PTGDavid, and it lived up to its name with whippy action, unexpected reactions, and sharp intraday turns. Despite the uncertainty, there were solid trading opportunities—especially for those who stayed tactical and respected the plan.
Key Themes & Trade Highlights:
-
Strong Win on Support Buy (Setup #2 – 6824–6828 ES):
Manny led the room with a clean execution of Setup #2 early in the session. He entered at 6822, managing risk tightly, and peeled off profit targets at +5, +10, and even hit +20 at 6841.
🔹 Lesson: Great example of using absorption and delta confirmation at support. Manny also showed strong trade management—adjusting stops and locking in partials. -
Trade Stack Opportunity Identified (Setups 1, 5, 6):
Later in the morning, Manny noted how Setups 1, 5, and 6 aligned in the same zone (~6809–6813), creating a “setup stack”. This layered level increased the conviction for a bounce, though no full execution was detailed afterward. -
Caution on Continuation Long (Setup #3):
Though Setup #3 (6864–6868) began to show signs of acceptance pre-open, Manny wisely warned that being too early could lead to shakeouts. Price later rejected near this zone, confirming the risk. -
“Wild-Card Session” Observed – Traps & Volatility:
PTGDavid emphasized that, since the 3-Day Cycle target was already hit, the day was ripe for misdirection and fake-outs. This played out with:-
A drop early in the session that lacked news catalyst.
-
A recovery move that stalled repeatedly near D-level resistance (6855–6870).
-
Late-day rejection yet again at the upper D-Level (6870), despite earlier bullish attempts.
-
Room Leadership & Education:
-
PTGDavid kept the tone strategic and encouraging, reminding traders to “Be the Lion” and use tools like Keltner Channels to navigate chop.
-
Valuable discussion around market structure, including how price reacts after breaking out of zones, and whether it typically retraces.
Takeaways & Lessons:
🔹 Follow the plan, adapt to flow: Manny’s disciplined execution and David’s tactical guidance are reminders to trust the prep but stay flexible when the market changes tone.
🔹 Don’t get caught in the middle: David reiterated the importance of avoiding trades in the “sandbox” or range middle—wait for clear edge.
🔹 Wild-card days require extra patience: Recognition of cycle context helped avoid overtrading and reinforced the need for selectivity.
Closing Thought:
Despite a choppy and unpredictable backdrop, the PTG room pulled out a clean +20 point win early and navigated the session with focus. Solid execution, community support, and a flexible mindset were the keys to the day.
“Stay nimble, stay tactical.”
DTG Room Preview – Thursday, December 4, 2025
-
Economic Data & Fed Expectations: Softer-than-expected ADP payrolls data shows a drop in hiring, especially among small businesses. Markets now pricing in an 89.2% chance of Fed rate cuts. Focus shifts to Challenger Job Cuts (7:30am ET) and Unemployment Claims (8:30am ET) for further clues on Fed direction.
-
Macro Developments: A Supreme Court ruling is pending on the legality of Trump’s global tariffs under emergency powers. Oil remains firm amid conflicting signals from Ukraine ceasefire talks and growing US-Venezuela tensions, with Trump hinting at potential US military action in the region.
-
Tech & AI Policy: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang met with Trump and lawmakers to discuss export controls on AI chips. Huang pushed back on regulation that could slow AI progress or restrict sales. He also dismissed concerns about large-scale GPU smuggling.
-
Earnings Highlights:
-
Beats: Salesforce (+5%), Five Below (+2%)
-
Misses: Snowflake (-7%) despite recent Anthropic partnership
-
Premarket Reports: Dollar General, Hormel, Kroger, CM, TD
-
After-Hours: HPE, Lululemon, Ulta, DocuSign, RBBRK, IOT, COO
-
-
Market Structure:
-
Volatility is shrinking, with ES 5-day ADR dropping to 55.50.
-
Whale flow bias is short ahead of 8:30am Unemployment Claims.
-
ES remains rangebound; key support at 6779–6776 and 50-day MA (6771).
-
Key TL resistance: 7250/55s, 7380/85s; TL support: 6779/76s, 6586/91s, 6465/60s.
-
Affiliate Disclosure: This newsletter may contain affiliate links, which means we may earn a commission if you click through and make a purchase. This comes at no additional cost to you and helps us continue providing valuable content. We only recommend products or services we genuinely believe in. Thank you for your support!
Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.
Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!
This post goes out as an email to our subscribers every day and is posted for free here around 2 PM ET. To get your real-time copy, sign up for the free or premium version here: Opening Print Subscribe.
Comments are closed