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June’s Historic Close Sets the Stage: Can July Sustain the Momentum?
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Our View
We closed a historic run in June as we set highs for the year to date on the last day of the month, on the last day of a quarter.
Rich from Handelstats.com called the June close last week and talked about the last day squeeze setting up. If you need to refresh, you can read that study here.
The important piece that is still relevant from that study is this paragraph:
Digging deeper, when June closes the month above the high of the first five months, there has never been a down year. In fact, this scenario has occurred 16 times, and the average annual return following such a close has been an impressive 21.66%. These data points underline the significance of June’s performance in shaping positive annual outcomes within the SPX.Looking forward, we have another HandelStats.com study today calling for a bullish third of July trade.
Market Outlook: July Off to a Strong Start
The S&P 500 closed at a new all-time high on the final trading day of June, reinforcing our bullish outlook for the remainder of the year. With strong momentum heading into the second half, we believe the market is well-positioned to post further gains in July.
Looking ahead to this week, historical data supports a positive bias for the day before the Fourth of July holiday. As shown in the attached study, the S&P 500 (ES futures) has finished higher on 13 out of the last 17 sessions on the trading day preceding July 4th, dating back to 2008 — a strong 76.47% probability of an up day.
Given this historical pattern and current market strength, we expect continued upside, with July 3rd likely to follow suit with a positive session. Barring unexpected news, the seasonal tailwinds and positive technicals suggest that investors could see fresh highs once again in the coming days.
Stay tuned — the trend remains your friend.
Our Lean
June was bullish til the end. I am not sure the market is comfortable here. We have some tariff worries ahead, and 3 more months before booking 3rd quarter profits. No need to hurry.
Some consolidation and foundation testing to the downside are going to have to happen to repair the distortions between stocks, bonds, large caps, and small caps.
Yesterday, after the close, we published this in our rooms. It is our Advance/Decline race charts. It is a real-time barometer look at the wider market dynamics. The Naz 100 closed the day out with a 3.3:1 advance/decline, which the small-cap larger breadth was down at -1.2:1. That distortion is seen during OPEX weeks, as indexes are pinned and hedged. That needs to come back to a more normal relationship, which should happen this week with the RUT having a more bullish A/D line than the indices.
Our lean: We expect the market to catch its breath and begin testing to the downside. Buy the dips remains the mantra, and there may be more dip buying opportunities available in the coming weeks. I will look for opportunities to go long in the AM if we get down to the 6215 area.
MiM and Daily Recap
Intraday Recap
The S&P 500 futures opened the regular cash session at 6248.25 after a firm Globex overnight advance of 24.75 points from the prior settlement. Early action was choppy, with an initial rally to 6255.50 by 9:20 AM, establishing the first lower high before sellers faded the move. This early strength reversed into a morning pullback to 6233.25 at 10:20 AM, marking a 22.25-point drop from the high.
The contract staged a modest recovery to 6242.25 at 10:30 AM, then slipped again to retest 6231.25 by 10:40 AM. Another rebound reached 6240.75 at 11:05 AM, but sellers briefly returned, bringing prices back to 6231.75 by 11:15 AM. Midday trade turned constructive, with ES advancing to 6244.00 by 11:45 AM and easing to 6235.50 at 12:15 PM before extending higher again to 6252.75 at 12:40 PM.
A sharp retracement followed, driving ES to the session low of 6224.25 by 1:55 PM. From there, momentum shifted decisively bullish, fueling a late-day rally to 6255.50 by 3:50 PM, a 41.25-point surge from the low. The market moderated in the final minutes, with the regular session closing at 6251.50, up 3.25 points from the open. The cash close-to-cash close net change was +28.25 points, a 0.45% gain. In the cleanup session, ES settled at 6245.25.
Overall sentiment leaned moderately bullish, driven by steady buying interest during the afternoon recovery. Globex session performance helped establish an early bid, and the strong rally from the early afternoon low reinforced buyer control into the close. Volume was robust, with the regular session trading over 1 million contracts and total volume topping 1.25 million.
Market-on-Close imbalance data showed a substantial $1.406 billion buy imbalance, with 74.4% of flow on the buy side and a 60% symbol imbalance. While this was below the extreme threshold of 66%, it contributed to the late advance and helped sustain prices into the final print.
Looking ahead, the decisive afternoon reversal and positive cash-to-cash close suggest that bullish momentum could persist if buyers defend the 6240 to 6250 zone early in today’s session.
Technical Edge
Fair Values for July 1, 2025:
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SP: 50.87
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NQ: 214.52
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Dow: 299.85
Daily Market Recap 📊
For Monday, June 30, 2025
• NYSE Breadth: 59.90% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 62.44% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 63.73% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 56.50% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 58.30% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 57.61% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 119 / 25
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 284 / 100
• NYSE TRIN: 0.65
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.80
Weekly Breadth Data 📈
For Week Ending Friday, June 27, 2025
• NYSE Breadth: 57.89% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 60.33% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 59.46% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 72.28% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 66.08% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 68.89% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 216 / 80
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 465 / 275
• NYSE TRIN: 1.86
• Nasdaq TRIN: 1.24
ES – Levels
The bull/bear line for the ES is at 6245.00. This is the key level that must be reclaimed for bullish momentum to resume. Currently, ES is trading around 6242.25, indicating slight weakness below the bull/bear line in the pre-market session.
If the price remains below 6245.00, expect further downside pressure targeting 6213.25, our lower intraday range target for today. A break below this level could extend the decline toward the next support at 6183.50.
On the upside, resistance comes in at 6265.50 and then at 6276.75, our upper intraday range target. If ES can reclaim 6245.00 and hold above, a test of these resistance levels is likely.
Additional support below the current price includes 6223.25 and 6183.50. Additional resistance above includes 6306.25 if momentum continues higher.
NQ – Levels
The bull/bear line for the NQ is at 22,857.25. This is the key level that must be reclaimed for bullish momentum to resume. Above this level, look for potential buying opportunities on dips.
Currently, NQ is trading around 22,841.50, indicating slight weakness just below the bull/bear line. If the price continues to hold under this level, expect potential downside pressure toward the lower range target of 22,716.50. Further weakness below that area could extend the decline toward 22,583.70.
On the upside, resistance is seen first at 22,934.70 and then at 22,998.30. A move above these zones opens the door for a run toward the upper range target of 22,998.30 and potentially the 23,130.80 level if bullish momentum accelerates.
Additional support sits at 22,751.50. If this area fails to hold, watch for a test of 22,716.50 and possibly 22,583.70.
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Calendars
Economic Calendar
Today
Important Upcoming
Earnings
Trading Room Summaries
Polaris Trading Group Summary – Monday, June 30, 2025
Overall Tone
The day was largely quiet and methodical until the afternoon, when end-of-month and end-of-quarter (EOM/EOQ) flows kicked in, producing a strong bullish markup and excellent trade opportunities to close out June.
Positive Trades and Highlights
Overnight Targets Hit Early
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ES and NQ futures fulfilled upside targets (ES 6245–6255, NQ 22885) before the open—another “Precision Target Strike.”
Early Short and Careful Patience
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A good short trade set up right off the open, but David emphasized letting the market “show its hand” before committing further.
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Members focused on high-probability setups only (“A+ setups”), recognizing their rarity.
PKB Setup Appreciation
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Several traders expressed how much they love the PKB setup, citing a strong hit rate (~65–70% when aligned with higher timeframe confluence).
Powerful Late-Day Rally
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In the last hour, window dressing and MOC flows drove prices through key resistance at 6245, retesting and ultimately clearing the 6255 overnight high.
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David re-entered (“Readded… and scaled”), culminating in a $2.7 Billion MOC Buy Imbalance, which powered the final leg higher.
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Scaling out into strength was executed cleanly—a perfect textbook example of combining technical and institutional flow awareness.
End-of-Month Wrap
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The day closed with price action perfectly aligning to the daily briefing plan: Cycle Day 2 balancing and markup.
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David highlighted that goals were accomplished for the first half of 2025, setting up fresh objectives for the second half.
Lessons Learned
🔹 Patience Pays
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Much of the day involved “sitting on hands” and waiting for higher-quality setups rather than forcing trades in low-volatility chop.
🔹 Importance of End-of-Period Dynamics
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EOM/EOQ flows (“Window Dressing”) often override intraday rhythms—something less experienced traders may underestimate.
🔹 Alignment with Higher Timeframes
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Repeated emphasis on aligning setups with HTF trend and confluence zones (e.g., prior day highs, daily targets).
🔹 Discipline in Execution
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Even with a quieter tape, the room remained engaged, discussing nuances like VWAP accumulation, institutional execution, and market-making mechanics.
Closing Notes
The day was a masterclass in knowing when to wait and when to strike.
Early sessions were subdued, but the team capitalized beautifully on the expected end-of-quarter markup. The session closed with well-managed scaling and clean profit-taking, wrapping up the month and quarter on a strong, disciplined note.
Well played!
Discovery Trading Group Room Preview – Tuesday, July 1, 2025
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S&P 500 ended H1 2025 at record highs after a volatile stretch marked by a 19% April decline tied to Trump administration tariffs. Retail investors stepped in heavily, with a record $3B in net purchases during the sharpest drawdown.
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Macro Concerns: Ongoing fears around China’s AI advances, Middle East tensions, and tariff impacts created short-term whipsaws but haven’t derailed the longer-term bullish trend.
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Tax Legislation: The Senate’s version of Trump’s tax bill—nearly $1T larger than the House version—remains in focus. Analysis shows top earners gain significant cuts while lower-income taxpayers see higher costs, especially from reduced support for Medicaid and SNAP. Fossil fuel producers stand to benefit substantially through expanded extraction rights and cuts to clean energy incentives.
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Tesla Reaction: Elon Musk strongly criticized the bill, calling it “utterly insane.” Trump fired back, highlighting Musk’s past reliance on subsidies. Tesla shares sold off overnight.
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Earnings & Economic Data: Constellation Brands reports after the bell. Key releases today include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (9:45 ET), ISM Manufacturing PMI & Prices, JOLTS, and Construction Spending (10:00 ET). Fed Chair Powell speaks at 9:30 ET.
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Volatility & Order Flow: Volatility is sharply lower as indexes test new highs; ES 5-day average daily range fell to 53.25. Whale bias is bearish into the US open amid heavier overnight large trader activity.
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Technical Levels (ES Futures):
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Resistance: ~6398–6403
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Supports: ~6049–6052, ~6014–6017, ~5614–5619
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Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.
Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!
This post goes out as an email to our subscribers every day and is posted for free here around 2 PM ET. To get your real-time copy, sign up for the free or premium version here: Opening Print Subscribe.
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