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Labor Day Playbook: Thursday Up, Friday Down?
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Our View
Well, guess what? The ES and NQ started out where they left off on Tuesday’s close: a small pullback and then a drift higher. By 11:50, the ES had traded up to 6495.50, pulled back to 6482, and then traded back up to 6493.50 and 6502.25 at 2:15.
It then traded 6499.75 as the 3:50 cash imbalance showed $750 million to buy, before settling at 6494.50 on the 4:00 cash close. The ES weakened slightly after CrowdStrike (CRWD) reported better-than-expected earnings but weaker forward guidance, sending the stock down 7% after the close.
Then the headlines hit. The ES initially rallied up to 6507.00 at 4:18, but when Nvidia posted a strong second quarter and announced a $60 billion stock buyback, its shares still fell after a narrow revenue miss in a key segment. That pushed the ES down to a new low on the day at 6459.00 at 4:21. The ES short-covered back up to 6488.50 and settled at 6485.25, up 0.20% on the day — marking its 19th record high close in 2025.
In the end, it was another ugly, slow grind higher until the weakness into the imbalance and the NVDA earnings. In terms of the ES’s and NQ’s overall tone, I mentioned they could sell the NVDA earnings, but I never shorted it. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, volume was shockingly low: at 1:15, there were only 525k ES contracts traded, and total volume ended up at 917k. Clearly, traders have been cutting back all week.
Today, there are three economic reports: Initial Jobless Claims and GDP at 8:30, and Pending Home Sales at 10:00. Among the top companies reporting earnings today are tech firms Dell, Marvell, and Autodesk, along with retailers Best Buy and Dollar General. According to FactSet, the Q2 earnings season is winding down, with 97% of the companies in the S&P having reported earnings.
I know Trump wants to be the peacemaker in Ukraine, but while that’s going on, things in the China Sea are heating up. China is butting heads with Japan and fired two warning shots at its vessel, while Vietnam has stepped up its island-building activities in the Spratly Islands. The Philippine defense chief condemned China’s deployment of a swarm of armed coast guard forces, backed by a helicopter and a drone, closer to the Philippines’ military outpost in a fiercely disputed atoll in the South China Sea.
Meanwhile, China’s Ministry of Natural Resources released a report Monday contending that U.S. freedom of navigation operations (FON) in the South China Sea have “no legal basis” under international law. Taiwan is preparing for a possible Chinese attack as Xi hosts India’s Modi and Russia’s Putin in China.
Our Lean
I think we’ll go back to a slow grind today, with resistance at 6500–6510 and support at 6450–6465. I asked Rich from HandelStats to run the PitBull’s Thursday/Friday low, and I was quite surprised with what he came up with. Basically, if the ES is up today, it should be down on Friday, and if it is down today, Friday should be higher 85% of the time.
I like putting Rich to task because he can expand on my ideas, and this study is an excellent example of it.
Labor Day Friday Market Pattern: 6 Out of 7 Opposite Moves
As we head into the holiday weekend, here’s an insight you won’t find on most trading desks:
When the Friday before Labor Day falls in August, the S&P 500 futures have shown a striking tendency to move opposite Thursday’s direction.
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Sample size: 7 occurrences
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Opposite Friday move: 6 out of 7 years (85.7%)
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Up vs. Down split: Fridays were up 4 times and down 3 times — the key factor was the directional flip from Thursday, not an overall bias.
This pattern suggests a position-flipping or profit-taking dynamic ahead of the long weekend, as traders clean up books and balance risk.
For active traders, watching Thursday’s move can offer valuable insight for Friday setups — particularly in years like this one where Labor Day falls early.
Stay sharp, trade safe, and enjoy the holiday break.
Tuesdays after just down.
— HandelStats
MiM and Daily Recap
Intraday Recap
The S&P 500 futures (ES) saw a mixed session on Wednesday, with movement defined by a weak Globex trade and a choppy but resilient regular session that ultimately closed modestly higher.
Overnight, ES opened at 6486.75 and quickly reached an early high of 6488.75 on the opening candle before drifting lower. Selling pressure built into the early session, with successive pullbacks at 20:45 (low of 6483.25) and 01:45 (low of 6481.50). A rebound carried prices to 6489.25 at 22:15, but the rally failed to hold. Renewed weakness sent ES to a series of fresh lows, hitting 6478.00 again at 04:45, and finally bottoming at 6472.25 at 09:15 just ahead of the regular cash open. The Globex session settled at 6473.75, down 13 points or -0.20% from its open, -7.25 from the previous cash close.
The regular session began at 6474.00. Buyers defended the opening level, sparking a sharp rally that carried ES to 6495.50 by 11:50, marking a 23.25-point recovery from the morning low. A midday dip to 6482.00 at 12:35 provided a higher low, setting the stage for a second advance. ES climbed steadily into the afternoon, printing 6502.25 at 14:15, marking the days’ high. From this height, the market found sellers moving the price down to 6486.50, a change of -15.75. From there, the market climbed into the close at 6494.50, 8 points higher than the 15:10 spike. The contract then rebounded modestly to close at 6494.50, up 20.50 points (+0.32%) on the day from the open or a more modest gain of 13.50 from the prior cash close.
The cleanup session was subdued, opening at 6494.25 and closing at 6485.25, a 9-point decline (-0.14%). The full session netted a close at 6485.25, off 1.50 points (-0.02%) from the prior day’s settlement. Volume reached 915,898 contracts, with the bulk concentrated during regular trading hours.
Market Tone & Notable Factors
Overall sentiment was balanced but leaned constructive during the cash trade, with buyers stepping in twice at key support levels to keep the market afloat. The cash-to-cash change reflected a gain of 13.50 points, or +0.21%, underscoring resilience after the Globex weakness.
The Market-on-Close imbalance showed a total of $1.19 billion, skewed 61.4% to the buy side in dollar terms but with a symbol imbalance at -56.1%. While the dollar flow supported prices into the bell, the negative symbol breadth reflected underlying selling pressure in more individual names. The imbalance helped temper the late decline, but sellers remained active into settlement.
Technical Edge
Fair Values for August 28, 2025
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S&P: 13.95
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NQ: 58.63
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Dow: 57.08
Daily Breadth Data 📊
For Wednesday, August 27, 2025
• NYSE Breadth: 67% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 61% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 61% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 62% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 56% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 58% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 129 / 4
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 227 / 45
• NYSE TRIN: 0.76
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.80
Weekly Breadth Data 📈
For the Week Ending Friday, August 22, 2025
• NYSE Breadth: 60% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 58% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 59% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 79% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 66% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 71% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 260 / 57
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 490 / 247
• NYSE TRIN: 2.46
• Nasdaq TRIN: 1.33
BTS Levels:
ESU2025
The bull/bear line for the ES is at 6484.00. This is the key level that needs to be reclaimed and held above for bullish momentum to build. Currently, ES is trading at 6492.75, slightly above this line, suggesting early attempts at strength.
On the upside, resistance comes in first at 6505.50 and then at 6531.00, our upper range target for today. A break and hold above 6531.00 could open the door for a push toward 6575.25.
On the downside, support is seen at 6459.25 and our lower range prediction of 6437.25. If the market breaks below these levels, the next downside target is 6393.00,
Overall, the ES remains in a pivotal zone. Trading above 6484.00 favors the bulls with potential for higher levels, while sustained action back below 6484.00 will likely invite sellers to press toward the lower targets, with eyes on 6372.50 and below. Reminder, we are still in a long-term bullish trend.
NQU2025
The bull/bear line for the NQ is at 23,550. This is the key pivot level that will dictate directional bias. If price can hold above this level, momentum can shift bullish, while sustained trade below suggests continued weakness.
Currently, NQ is trading around 23,601.25, showing it is holding just above the bull/bear line. For upside potential, resistance sits first at 23,689 and then 23,959.25, with the upper range target at 23,760.75. A sustained break through these resistance zones opens the door for a push toward 23,846.75 and beyond.
On the downside, initial support is at 23,434.75 and then at 23,339.25, the lower range target for today. A break below these levels could accelerate selling pressure, with deeper support down at 23,140.75.
Overall, the short-term tone remains cautious but slightly constructive while above 23,550. Bulls need to defend this line on dips to maintain any upward trajectory.
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Calendars
Economic Calendar Today
This Week’s High Importance
Earnings:
Released
Trading Room News:
Polaris Trading Group Summary: Wednesday, August 27, 2025
Yesterday’s session was defined by measured price action, highly accurate technical levels, and a textbook execution of both bull and bear scenarios—all led with clarity by PTGDavid.
Key Market Action & Trade Highlights:
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Pre-Market & Opening Notes:
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Manny flagged 6475 SPX / 6493 ES as a gamma flip zone, with a bullish bias targeting 6498–6508 ES.
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The market opened at pre-market lows and made a fast move from the pre-market highs to the lows within the first hour.
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Initial TL support only gave a 2-pt bounce, making for a cautious start.
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Morning Trade Opportunities:
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A scalp long setup over 6484/85 was eyed for a potential 5-point gain.
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A4 model triggered a long, and while not explosive, it was effective, confirming dip-buying bias throughout the session.
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Slatitude39 was awarded a KEWPIE for correctly observing price holding above mid-zone.
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Midday & Afternoon Session:
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David emphasized the importance of structural pivots for stop placement, offering useful guidance when Roy_ was stopped out of the A4 trade.
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As volume remained light (~576k at 2PM), the room stayed patient and focused on the higher timeframes.
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The A4 and A10 models continued to “play ball,” affirming the bullish structure.
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Manny noted a 60-min CUP pattern forming, potentially setting up for continuation during Globex.
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Final Hour Precision:
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David reiterated both bull and bear scenarios around the 6480 level, and remarkably, both 6505 (upside) and 6460 (downside) targets were hit with ultra precision.
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The session closed strong with the key levels respected and executed upon.
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Lessons & Takeaways:
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Discipline in Missed Trades: Manny openly shared how he’s grown from tilting over missed trades to acceptance—an important psychological milestone for any trader.
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Planning Over Outcome: David reminded the room that as long as you’re following your pre-defined plan, you’re doing it right—even if a trade doesn’t work out.
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Structural Awareness: Key levels like ON highs/lows and gamma flip zones continue to provide powerful guidance. Those who respected structure were rewarded.
Standout Moments:
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KEWPIE Award to slatitude39 for price zone awareness.
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Both major price targets (6505 & 6460) hit as forecasted, reinforcing the strength of PTG’s methodology.
Summary:
A slower grind of a day, but rich with technical precision and reinforced discipline. The bullish dip-buying strategy paid off, and traders who remained patient and aligned with structure were able to navigate the session confidently.
📌 “Knowing is not enough, we must APPLY. Willing is not enough, we must DO.” — Bruce Lee (quoted by PTGDavid to start the day)
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Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.
Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!
This post goes out as an email to our subscribers every day and is posted for free here around 2 PM ET. To get your real-time copy, sign up for the free or premium version here: Opening Print Subscribe.
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