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Low-Hire, Low-Fire and a Whole Lotta 7000 Rejection — Who’s Got the Edge?
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Our View
J.P. Morgan’s chief U.S. economist, Michael Feroli, has forecasted around +75,000 nonfarm payroll jobs for the January 2026 employment report (covering January data, released February 11, 2026, due to a delay from the government shutdown). They also expect the unemployment rate to hold steady at 4.4%.
This forecast positions them near the median or consensus among economists (some estimates range from +45k at more bearish firms like BofA to around +70k more broadly). J.P. Morgan views this as a “good report” given recent soft data, with weather effects potentially favorable (the survey week had better conditions). They anticipate a stable labor market overall, with no collapse in hiring, though growth remains slow amid factors like tighter labor supply.
Note that this is their pre-release expectation (from recent commentary/podcast discussions). The actual report comes out today at 8:30 AM ET, and it will include important annual benchmark revisions to prior 2025 data, which could adjust historical figures downward significantly (preliminary estimates suggested around -900k or more in some cases).
Recent months have shown a “low-hire, low-fire” pattern with subdued job growth, and J.P. Morgan sees unemployment potentially peaking around 4.5% early in 2026 before improving later in the year, driven by factors like prospective tax cuts and Fed policy effects. For those trading or watching markets, this could influence Fed rate expectations (they currently see the Fed holding steady).
Our View
Trump is saying he might send a second carrier to strike Iran if talks fail. As I’ve been saying, he has backed himself into another corner, and I don’t think it’s a good idea to start a war with Iran now. When Israel and the U.S. were pumping Iran back in June of 2025, I think they could have pounded Iran into submission, but not now. They are way better prepared.
A new story came out yesterday saying that the United States has fallen to its worst-ever position in a leading global index that measures perception of corruption in the public sector among independent experts and business people. The U.S. slipped one notch to 29th place out of 182 in Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI). That’s the lowest rank since 2012, when the index—originally established in 1995—was relaunched using a new methodology.
I never heard of this new CPI index, so I looked it up on Wikipedia, and this was what it said: Corruption Perceptions Index
Map of the Corruption Perceptions Index, 2025, as scored by Transparency International:
A higher score indicates greater transparency (i.e., less corruption). The score ranges are:
I think it’s hard to avoid the elephant in the room. I’m not saying it’s all Trump’s fault, but surely the U.S. has fallen out of favor, and part of it has to do with his unending tariffs. The other part is: in early 2024, his net worth was between $2.3 billion and $3 billion, and by January 2025, it had jumped to $5.1 billion to $7 billion. Currently, it’s estimated at $6.5 billion to $7.3 billion.
After his family jumped into the crypto venture in the first half of 2025, the Trump family reportedly earned over $800 million from crypto ventures, including the launch of the $TRUMP and $MELANIA memecoins, and a $500 million deal for a stake in World Liberty Financial. This digital pivot was bolstered by the $235 million valuation of the USD1 Stablecoin and TMTG’s merger with TAE Technologies. By early 2026, TMTG solidified this shift toward tech by distributing blockchain tokens to shareholders via its “Digital Token Initiative.”
It is what it is—but as the old saying goes, the rich get richer!
Our Lean
I put this in the MrTopStep chat before the open yesterday:
MPRO:Dboy [9:24:25 AM]:
I used to keep track of the up and down Mondays, and there were a lot more up—but Tuesdays tend to be a different story. Not saying the ES can’t or won’t charge higher, but we could see a pullback today.
As I said in yesterday’s Lean:
Our lean: With the ES up against good resistance at the 7000.00 level, you can sell the big gap-up or the early rallies and buy weakness—or just be patient and buy the pullbacks.
I’m not sure what the NQ weakness was yesterday, but I think it’s important to remember how much the markets have rallied in the last three sessions. Today is the delayed January jobs number, and that could be a factor in yesterday’s late NQ weakness.
Again, I think it’s important to remember all the recent highs above 7000.00. Between January 7 and February 10, 2026, here are the key levels:
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7,006.75 on Jan 7
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7,017.50 on Jan 9
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7,025.25 on Jan 12
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7,036.25 on Jan 13
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7,002.50 on Jan 14
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7,017.25 on Jan 15
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7,007.00 on Jan 16
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7,018.50 on Jan 27
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7,043.00 on Jan 28
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7,029.50 on Jan 29
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7,017.25 on Feb 2
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7,027.25 on Feb 3
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7,000.50 on Feb 9
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7,006.50 on Feb 10
Our lean: That’s a lot of rejection around and above 7000.00. If the ES gaps lower today, I would be looking to buy the early weakness—but I also think there is a lot to overcome on the upside.
ESH26 S/R Levels (Current: 6961.50)
🔴 Resistance Levels
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7100.00 (+138.50 pts)
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7067.97 (+106.47 pts)
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7050.00 (+88.50 pts)
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7016.45 (+54.95 pts)
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7000.00 (+38.50 pts)
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6994.00 (+32.50 pts)
🟢 Support Levels
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6960.00 (-1.50 pts)
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6950.00 (-11.50 pts)
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6941.49 (-20.01 pts)
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6913.40 (-48.10 pts)
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6909.01 (-52.49 pts)
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6900.00 (-61.50 pts)
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6887.68 (-73.82 pts)
Market Recap
The ES rallied up to 6991.00, sold off down to 6970.50, and opened Wednesday’s session at 6990.00. After the open, the ES rallied up to 6996.50, sold off down to 6975.00, rallied up to 7005.00 at 10:05, sold off down to 6987.25, rallied up to a new high at 7006.25 at 10:30, sold off down to 6981.50 at 11:20, rallied back up to a lower high at 6998.75 at 12:45, and then sold off down to a new low at 6968.75 at 1:50 (taking out the Globex low).
From there, the ES rallied up to 6982.00 at 2:30, did a small back-and-fill, pulled back to 6969.50 at 3:40, and traded 6974.50 as the 3:50 cash imbalance showed flat to small to buy. However, the Nasdaq flipped to $1 billion for sale, and the ES dropped down to 6957.00 at 3:55, trading 6961.25 on the 4:00 cash close.
After 4:00, the ES traded up to 6970.50 and settled at 6961.50, down 21.75 points or -0.31%. The NQ settled at 25,218.25, down 135.75 points or -0.54%. The YM settled at 50,273.00, down 54 points or -0.11%. The RTY settled at 2688.30, down 7.80 points or -0.29% on the day.
In the end, the ES did rally, but it ran into resistance above 7000.00. In terms of the ES and NQ’s overall tone, they acted tired after the big two-day pop. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, volume has been slacking at 1.137 million contracts traded.
Wednesday, Feb 11 Schedule:
Pre-market: McDonald’s (MCD) earnings
8:30 am: January U.S. Employment Report (Jobs, Unemployment, Wages)
10:10 am: Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid
2:00 pm: Monthly U.S. Federal Budget
Guest Posts
Cycle Day 3: Wild Card Day — 7000 or Bust
Three-Day Cycle targets? ✔️ Done. Fulfilled. In the books.
But don’t get it twisted…
Price is still slammed up against the 7000 “Barrier Reef”—and every time bulls poke their head above the water, the Shark Sellers are already circling. No hesitation. No mercy. Weak hands get chewed up fast.
This is the line in the sand.
Cycle Day 3 is where conviction gets tested and pretenders get exposed. The easy money was made earlier in the cycle—today is about strength, timing, and follow-through.
For the bulls, it’s simple but not easy:
Either bring real size, real momentum, and real intent…
or get dragged back under by sellers who know exactly where liquidity lives.
The mission is clear:
Break the reef. Hold the highs. And break on through to the other side.
7000 isn’t just a number today—it’s a referendum.
7000 or Bust. 🦈🐂🔥
— PTGDavid
🎯 Cycle Day 3 Focus
Scenarios for today’s trade
🟢 Bull Case
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Hold north of: 7000 ± 5
-
Upside targets:
7015 → 7020 → 7025 -
Squeeze dynamics increase above 7000 with momentum acceptance.
🔴 Bear Case
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Hold south of: 7000 ± 5
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Downside targets:
6985 → 6975 → 6965 -
Failure to breakout keeps pressure on and extends consolidation.
🔍 Key Reference Levels
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PVA High Edge: 6997
-
PVA Low Edge: 6970
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Prior POC: 6978
⚠️ Tactical Takeaway
Of course, nothing changes for PTG…Simply follow your plan. Take only Triple A setups and manage the $risk. ALWAYS HAVE HARD STOP-LOSSES in-place on the exchange.
PTG’s Primary Directive (PD) is to ALWAYS STAY IN ALIGNMENT with the DOMINANT FORCE.
ESH
Nasdaq (NQ)
…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3
Cycle Day 3 – The “Magnificent 7” Get Their Redemption Shot
Lately, the so-called Magnificent 7 have misplaced their crown.
After aggressive long-liquidation pressure, the market did what it always does to the unworthy —
it stripped the title and rechristened them the “DRAGS-7.”
A label earned, not given.
Now enter Cycle Day 3.
We’re updating this narrative from the prior CD3, where the MAGS-7 managed to claw back partial redemption. Credit where it’s due — progress was made.
But make no mistake…
This story isn’t finished.
This cycle has been productive. Price fulfilled the 3-Day Cycle Objective @ 25,437.
So congratulations…
…NOT SO FAST.
Now comes the real test.
This consolidation must resolve to the upside if the MAGS-7 want FULL REDEMPTION stamped on their record.
Job #1:
👉 Clear and convert 25,437.
👉 Hold it. Defend it. Build above it.
Only then do you earn the right to reclaim hierarchy status on the leaderboard.
You’re the MAGS-7.
Now show the market your magnificence.
— PTGDavid
🎯 Cycle Day 3 Focus
Scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
🟢 Bull Case
-
Hold north of 25437 +- 10 pts targets 25480…25515…25542
🔴 Bear Case
-
Hold south of 25437 +- 10 pts targets 25320…25255…25220
PVA High Edge = 25398 PVA Low Edge = 25276 Prior POC = 25291
⚠️ Tactical Takeaway
Of course, nothing changes for PTG…Simply follow your plan. Take only Triple A setups and manage the $risk. ALWAYS HAVE HARD STOP-LOSSES in-place on the exchange.
PTG’s Primary Directive (PD) is to ALWAYS STAY IN ALIGNMENT with the DOMINANT FORCE.
NQH
— PTG
MOC Recap
The February 10th MOC opened with a modest buy-lean before quickly shifting into a wholesale sell program. At 15:50 the tape showed a small +$16M buy imbalance, but by 15:53, the auction flipped hard to -$412M and accelerated to a peak -$945M sell skew at 15:54. The $PCT reading pushed to -56% to -57% during the heaviest pressure, signaling broad-based institutional supply rather than simple rotation. Sell interest remained dominant through 15:57 before a sharp counter-rotation at 15:58 briefly swung the book back to +$288M. Into the bell, the imbalance settled nearly flat at +$10M, reflecting a late cross that neutralized earlier extremes.
Sector data confirms the internal tug-of-war. Consumer Cyclical led on the buy side at +83.6%, alongside Energy (+81.3%) and Real Estate (+65.7%), showing clear wholesale demand. Utilities (+60.0%) and Industrials (+54.4%) leaned constructive but more rotational. On the other side, Technology printed -71.5% and Basic Materials -70.3%, both well beyond the -66% threshold and indicative of decisive institutional selling. Consumer Defensive (-68.9%) also saw heavy distribution. Communication Services (-63.9%), Financials (-55.9%), and Healthcare (-53.9%) were negative but closer to rotation than outright liquidation.
Single-name flows highlight the divergence. TSLA dominated the buy side with over $1B paired, joined by VZ, GE, AXP, and XOM. Meanwhile, mega-cap tech drove the sell program: NVDA ($233M sell), AAPL ($204M), PANW ($139M), MSFT ($86M), and META ($122M) anchored the pressure. The NASDAQ complex closed with a -$448M net imbalance and a -56.7% lean, reinforcing tech weakness, while the NYSE finished strongly positive at +$465M and +56.6%.
Overall, the MOC reflected a sharp technology unwind offset by rotation into cyclicals and defensives, producing a late neutral print but clear internal distribution beneath the surface.
Technical Edge
Fair Values for February 11, 2026:
-
SP: 18.47
-
NQ: 80.87
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Dow: 73.96
Daily Market Recap 📊
For Tuesday, February 10, 2026
• NYSE Breadth: 55% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 51% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 51% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 62% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 48% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 53% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 309 / 38
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 316 / 124
• NYSE TRIN: 1.27
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.90
Weekly Market 📈
For the week ending Friday, February 6, 2026
• NYSE Breadth: 55% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 49% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 51% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 61% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 44% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 50% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 548 / 184
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 678 / 809
• NYSE TRIN: 1.27
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.81
Trading Room Summaries
Polaris Trading Group Summary – Tuesday, February 10, 2026
The PTG trading room, led by David Dube (PTGDavid), navigated a Cycle Day 2 with methodical precision. The day emphasized balanced consolidation, disciplined execution, and sharp awareness of key market levels—particularly the 6965 “Line in the Sand.”
Highlights of the Day
-
Bull Flag Setup:
PTGDavid identified a bull flag continuation early in the session, contingent on Clear & Convert (C&C) of the 6995–7005 zone. While price attempted to challenge that area, it mostly hovered below, reflecting consolidation rather than breakout behavior. -
Rock-Solid Rhythms:
Cycle Day 2 played out in textbook fashion—PTGDavid praised the rhythm and balance, noting it was ideal for range-based strategies rather than trend chasing. -
Strong Technical Focus:
Conversations highlighted:-
Differences between NQ and MES charts, especially with tick/ATR variances across platforms.
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Sierra Chart execution tricks, such as trading MES directly from ES charts.
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Data feed comparisons and platform preferences (Denali vs Rithmic, Sierra vs Ninja).
-
-
Key Level Holding:
The 6965 pivot zone held firm throughout, reinforcing the bull case during consolidation. Even during a late-day downside probe, the line was respected until just before the close.
Lessons & Takeaways
-
Discipline Over Hope:
PTGDavid emphasized the SEALs’ mantra—“The Only Easy Day Was Yesterday”—to reinforce that success in trading is tied to discipline, execution, and not relying on hope. A powerful mindset lesson for traders at all levels. -
Adaptation is Key:
Cycle Day 1 provided the “gift” of opportunity, while Cycle Day 2 rewarded patience and strategy, not aggression. Traders who understood the difference stayed in sync with the market’s pace. -
Platform Nuances Matter:
A rich discussion on how platform and data discrepancies (Sierra vs NinjaTrader, MES vs ES) can impact trade execution and chart interpretation. Traders shared practical tips to bridge these gaps effectively.
End-of-Day Recap
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MOC Commentary: Market on Close action was mostly flat (“Mice Nutz”) until a late-session probe below 6965 initiated a controlled test of downside targets (6955 and lower), signaling potential rotation/reset behavior as outlined in the bear case scenario.
-
Net Result:
While no large directional move occurred, the tight consolidation and respect of key levels provided clear structure for successful tactical entries and exits.
Final Note
Tuesday’s session wasn’t about home runs—it was about staying in rhythm, respecting market structure, and executing with clarity. As David put it: “Cycle Day 2 doesn’t reward hope. It rewards execution.”
Discovery Trading Group Room Preview – Wednesday, February 11, 2026
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Focus: Markets await the January Jobs Report at 8:30am ET, with wide-ranging estimates (10K–135K) and expected unemployment at 4.4%. Revisions to 2025 data may show weaker prior job gains. ADP signals a still-brutal job market for the unemployed.
Fed Watch: Four new regional Fed presidents now have voting rights. Speeches from Hammack and Logan show continued concern over inflation, with a cautious tone on rate cuts. Logan left the door open for cuts if the job market worsens.
Market Impact:
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USD down, gold up – betting on potential Fed cuts
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Equities: Key reaction to labor data will likely set the tone for the day
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Volatility: Contracting but still elevated; ES 5-day ADR is 119.25
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Technical Levels (ES):
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Resistance: 6996/93s, 7117/22s, 7360/65s
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Support: 6770/75s, 6726/21s
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Key: 50-day MA at 6938.25; short-term downtrend remains intact unless broken post-report
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AI Disruption: New Altruist Corp AI tool is shaking up Wealth Management. Major firms hit hard: Raymond James (-8.8%), Schwab (-7.4%), LPL (-8.3%).
Earnings Calendar:
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Premarket: MCD, TMUS, HUM, KHC, VRT, and others
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After Close: CSCO, ALB, APP, EQIX, MSI
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Thursday AM: SONY, HMC, BUD, AEP, QSR, TRU, ZBRA
Other Data Today: Crude Oil Inventories (10:30am ET), Fed Budget Balance (2:00pm ET)
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Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.
Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!
This post goes out as an email to our subscribers every day and is posted for free here around 2 PM ET. To get your real-time copy, sign up for the free or premium version here: Opening Print Subscribe.
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