on March 25, 2025

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Mind The Gap.

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Our View

The ES and NQ started out where they left off—going up. After a minor downtick on Globex, the ES traded 5717.00 and opened Monday’s regular session at 5782.50, pulled back to 5776.00 and then a Trump headline came out saying that he was going to play nice on the scheduled April 2nd tariffs. That sparked a rally up to 5815, From Friday’s low to yesterday’s high, the ES has rallied 174 points, and from Friday’s 5720.00 high, 104 points.

The bottom line is the ES and NQ have come a long way over the last two sessions and are now posting two-week highs. I think Trump is trying to calm market fears over the April 2nd deadline and that some of the countries he has threatened will possibly receive exemptions or reductions from next week’s tariffs, saying, “I may give a lot of countries breaks

I guess he’s catching on that a lot of US-friendly countries are canceling their purchases of the F-35s ($2 trillion), like the EU, Canada, Portugal, and Switzerland. My own opinion is that many of these countries are tired of being pushed around and are calling his bluff. I get that he thinks he’s the king of the art of the deal, but it’s just not working.

The other thing I want to talk about is Social Security. The Trump administration is now targeting it. My wife told me to wait, and now the program is said to run out of money by 2033 or sooner. I’m not even sure what to say about that, but I know it’s going to hurt a lot of people who depend on it.

I read a few articles on it, but I found this in the WSJ and I think it’s worth reading:
Dealing With Social Security Is Heading From Bad to Worse

If people are not pissed off now, especially those who have lost their jobs due to DOGE, they will be when this starts to go down. My guess is a lot of folks—like me—are going to get on the phone and get it going ASAP. At the end of the day, it is what it is, but this is going to cause quite a stir.

Our Lean

Earnings season is kicking into gear, and there’s talk that Q1 earnings estimates have steadily come down since the quarter got underway. The current +6.1% expected growth pace is down from +10.4% at the start of January 2025. They used to say bad news comes in threes, but it’s way more than that this year.

Personally, I try not to let things bother me, but it’s very hard to do right now—it feels like it’s a constant fight for everything. As I said, the Fed blackout period is over. Today, Fed Governor Adriana Kugler speaks at 8:40 AM, and NY Fed President John Williams speaks at 9:05 AM. There are also three economic reports coming out.

Our lean: if the ES gaps higher, I’m selling the open. That’s not a vote against the upside, but the ES has rallied 150 points in two sessions, and I get the feeling that if you’re a buyer, a pullback would be a good thing.

Here are some of the downside levels I’m looking at: 5795.00, 5775.00, and the 5750.00 level. On the upside, I have 5735.00, 5768.00, and 5775.00.

Equities CTA Flows as of 3/24/2025

Next 1 Week

Flat tape: Buyers $24.72B ($1.39B into US)
Up tape: Buyers $28.92B ($3.82B into US)
Down tape: Buyers $7.68B ($0.27B into US)

Next 1 Month

Flat tape: Buyers $15.48B ($2.04B into US)
Up tape: Buyers $112.23B ($68.79B into US)
Down tape: Sellers $84.66B ($0.95B out of US)

Key Pivot Levels for SPX

Short term: 5855
Medium term: 5863
Long term: 5438

MiM and Daily Recap

The ES futures market began with positive momentum from the overnight Globex session, where prices moved steadily higher. The session opened at 5782.50, above the prior close, signaling bullish sentiment early on. Premarket the price was hovering around 5790 at 9:10 and fell 8 points to 5782.50 for the open. Buyers quickly stepped in, pushing the futures up to an initial high of 5815.00 at 11:06 AM, reflecting a morning gain of 39 points (0.68%) from the open.

A modest retracement followed, taking the ES down to 5806.50 at 11:42 AM, shedding 8.50 points (-0.15%). However, the bullish tone persisted strongly into midday, and by 12:06 PM, the ES reached another new high of 5819.25 (+12.75 points, +0.22%).

The afternoon trading saw fluctuations, with prices declining to 5798.50 by 1:18 PM (-20.75 points, -0.36%), signaling a brief bearish attempt. A quick recovery ensued, lifting the ES slightly to 5808.75 at 1:33 PM (+10.25 points, +0.18%), followed by another drop to 5795.00 at 2:30 PM (-13.75 points, -0.24%). The late session rallied decisively again, hitting the day’s peak at 5825.50 by 3:54 PM, reflecting a significant 30.50-point increase (+0.53%) from the afternoon low.

The ES closed the regular session at 5813.50, up 31 points (+0.54%) from the open and posting a substantial net gain of 99 points, or +1.73%, from the prior day’s cash close.

The overall market tone was distinctly bullish throughout the session, characterized by strong buying support during intraday dips and sustained upward momentum from the overnight session into the cash session.

Market-on-close (MOC) data revealed a strong bullish imbalance totaling $3.72 B. Despite this significant dollar imbalance, the symbol imbalance stood at a moderate 51.3%, indicating broader participation in the buying activity without extreme concentration. The robust buying pressure at the close underscores continued optimism, contributing significantly to maintaining higher prices into the session close.

Overall, the session concluded on a strongly bullish note, reinforcing positive market sentiment. This performance sets a constructive outlook going into the next trading session, potentially indicating sustained bullish momentum or further tests of resistance levels.

How to read the MIM

Technical Edge

MrTopStep Levels:

Fair Values for March 25, 2025:

SP: 51.05
NQ: 204.26
Dow: 332.29

Daily Market Recap 📊

NYSE Breadth: 79% Upside Volume
Nasdaq Breadth: 78% Upside Volume
Total Breadth: 78% Upside Volume
NYSE Advance/Decline: 74% Advance
Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 67% Advance
Total Advance/Decline: 70% Advance
NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 26 / 17
Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 76 / 105
NYSE TRIN: 0.84
Nasdaq TRIN: 0.56

Weekly Market 📈

NYSE Breadth: 52% Upside Volume
Nasdaq Breadth: 54% Upside Volume
Total Breadth: 53% Upside Volume
NYSE Advance/Decline: 61% Advance
Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 58% Advance
Total Advance/Decline: 59% Advance
NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 105 / 146
Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 189 / 395
NYSE TRIN: 1.01
Nasdaq TRIN: 0.91

Trading Room Summaries

Polaris Trading Group Summary – Monday, March 24 , 2025

Positive Trades and Highlights:

Today’s session was a clear bullish trend day, led with precision by PTGDavid and anchored around the Open Range strategy. The market offered high-probability opportunities, especially for traders who stayed disciplined and aligned with the long-side bias.

Open Range Strategy TRIFECTA:
All three primary instruments — ES, NQ, and CL — hit their Open Range Long targets.
- ES hit its Three-Day Cycle Target of 5751.25 early and continued upward toward the next level of 5792. Later in the morning, price tagged the 21 DEMA at 5805, marking another significant technical level reached.
- NQ also completed its cycle target at 20082.50 and pressed higher toward 20280.
- Crude Oil (CL) followed through on its Open Range Long, with all targets fulfilled.
VWAP and OPR Pullbacks:
David guided traders to look for pullbacks to VWAP and Open Range levels rather than chase strength. These areas provided clean entry points throughout the session, reinforcing the value of trading with structure.
Late Day Momentum:
The market continued to respect support levels into the afternoon. During the final 30 minutes, bulls remained in control, with the market holding above VWAP and a strong Market-on-Close (MOC) buy imbalance appearing. The imbalance expanded from $1.2 billion to $2 billion before fading slightly into the close, still marking a strong day for buyers.

Lessons and Takeaways:

Focus Over Complexity:
David reminded traders that having too many strategies can be a liability. The suggestion to collect 100 screenshots of a trader’s best-performing setup is a powerful way to build consistency and confidence.
Read the Market, Not Your Bias:
Shorting against strong bullish structure was discouraged. Shallow pullbacks with absorption were clear signs of buyers in control. Traders were urged to stay with the trend unless clear signals indicated otherwise.
Patience and Precision:
No chasing was a key theme. The pullbacks gave defined risk and better reward setups. Those who waited for those moments were rewarded.
Strong Community Engagement:
The chat was active and supportive, with members acknowledging the lessons and the day’s strong performance. There was a shared appreciation for the clean setups and market behavior.

Summary:
Monday’s session offered textbook bullish momentum, clean technical execution, and valuable trading lessons. With all Open Range targets hit and disciplined guidance from PTGDavid, it was a strong start to the week for the PTG room.

Discovery Trading Group Room Preview – Tuesday, March 25, 2025

Top Headlines:
- Trump Signals Possible Tariff Rollbacks:
  President Trump suggested the U.S. may reduce or eliminate reciprocal tariffs planned for April 2. Reports from Bloomberg and WSJ indicate the measures may be narrower than initially feared, easing market concerns over a broader trade war.
- Tech and Auto Stocks Surge:
  Tesla (TSLA) rose 12% on signs that auto-related tariffs may be excluded. Broader tech rallied, led by AMD (+6.9%), Nvidia (NVDA +3.7%), and a 2.3% gain in the Nasdaq Composite.
- AI and Chip Sector Developments:
  Ant Group, Jack Ma’s AI company, expects major cost savings by shifting away from Nvidia chips. The AI sector continues to see innovation momentum, with Nvidia CEO highlighting software breakthroughs like DeepSeek’s R1.
  Meanwhile, South Korean chipmaker FuriosaAI rejected an $800 million acquisition offer from Meta Platforms.
- US Economic Growth Slowing, Not Stalling:
  S&P Global’s flash composite PMI showed Q1 growth below expectations. While GDP outlooks have been revised downward by major banks, none are forecasting a recession. Fed Chair Powell noted that recession risks have increased slightly but remain low.
Key Earnings Today:
- McCormick & Company (MKC) – before the open
- GameStop (GME) – after the close
Economic Calendar (ET):
- 9:00 AM – FHFA House Price Index, S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City HPI
- 10:00 AM – CB Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales, Richmond Manufacturing Index
- Fed speakers:
  - Gov. Adriana Kugler – 8:40 AM
  - NY Fed President John Williams – 9:05 AM
Market Sentiment and Technicals:
- Volatility (VIX) was flat Monday, still holding at moderately elevated levels.
- Whale trader bias is bullish heading into the US open, though overnight large trader volume is lighter than recent sessions.
ES Futures (S&P 500 E-Mini):
- Continued upside breakout on Monday, pushing above short-term uptrend channel top — a bullish technical signal.
- No immediate resistance above; former trendline tops may act as new support on any pullbacks.
Key Levels:
- Resistance: 6212/07
- Support: 5735/30, 5668/71, 5495/90, 5405/00

ES -Week to Week

The bull/bear line for the ES today is at 5802.25. Maintaining price action above this level will suggest bullish sentiment, with dips potentially providing buying opportunities.

Currently, the ES is trading near 5817.75, slightly above this critical bull/bear line, indicating bullish bias for the session. Traders should monitor for sustained price action above this level, targeting resistance at 5862.50, today’s upper range target. Further strength above this could push prices toward secondary resistance around 5919.25.

On the downside, if ES falls back below 5802.25, we anticipate a test of initial support at 5777.00. Further weakness below this would open the door to the lower intraday range target at 5742.00, with deeper support located near 5772.

Overall, the immediate bias remains bullish provided the ES remains above the bull/bear line at 5802.25. Stay alert to price reaction at key resistance levels for confirmation of continuation or signs of reversal.

NQ – Week to Week

The bull/bear line for the NQ today is at 20,316.50. Price action relative to this level will be critical for determining today’s market sentiment.

Currently, the NQ is trading around 20,374, above the bull/bear line, indicating bullish sentiment at the moment. Holding above this line suggests potential upside continuation. Initial resistance is at 20,442.00, followed by the upper intraday range target of 20,586.25. If momentum strengthens, look for further resistance at 20,840.25.

On the downside, if the price fails to hold the bull/bear line at 20,316.50, expect a pullback toward the initial lower target of 20,187 and then the lower intraday target at 20,046.75. Breaking below this level could accelerate selling pressure toward stronger support at 19,932.00 and then 19,792.75.

Overall, maintaining price action above the bull/bear line at 20,316.50 favors bulls, but vigilance is required as failure to hold this critical level can quickly shift sentiment to bearish.