More wind, rain and floods.

Somethings brewing, I can feel it.

Follow @MrTopStep on Twitter and please share if you find our work valuable!

Our View

#FloridaLife

I’m keeping it light today. Hurricane Milton, now a Category 5, is gearing up to make landfall on the west coast of Florida. It’s another true catastrophe in the making. They say to get prepared, but Delray doesn’t have the same flat beaches like the west side of Florida, where the water can move unimpeded. My house is 12 to 14 feet above sea level—the water would have to cross over the intra-coastal and keep going.

The latest reports are saying that Milton will go straight across the state, north of us. But anyone who’s been through one of the big hurricanes knows that a direction change can happen fast. The next time someone says there’s no global warming, I swear, I’ll punch them in the face.

Hurricane Milton, set to make landfall tomorrow, is being called “a historic, once-in-a-lifetime storm for Floridians” by AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porte. Crazy stuff.

In the end, the markets were weak. As for the ES, it was “sell every rally” until late in the day. Volume was lower, with only 1.46 million contracts traded.

MiM and Daily Recap

The ES traded up to 5800.00, sold off down to 5762.75, and traded 5763 on Monday’s hurricane trading day. After the open, the ES traded 5785.50 and then sold off down to 5774.00 at 9:57, rallied 14.75 points up to 5788.75, sold off to 5775.00, rallied up to a lower high at 5786.75, and then dropped 17 points down to 5769.75. It then rallied up to another lower high at 5780.50 at 12:24, and dropped 46.25 points down to 5743.25 at 3:00. After the low, the ES rallied 17.25 points up to 5771.50 at 3:24, then sold off 14.75 points down to 5736.25 at 3:43, and bounced up to 5741.50. It traded 5742.25 as the 3:50 cash imbalance showed \$1.3 billion to sell, sold off down to 5747.00, and traded down to 5740.75 before trading 5744.75 on the 4:00 cash close. After 4:00, the ES rallied up to 5753.50 at 4:42 and settled at 5750.00, down 45.5 points, or -0.79%. The NQ settled at 20,017.00, down 185.25 points or -0.92%. The 10-year T-note yield climbed to a 2-month high, and crude oil closed up 3%.

Technical Edge

Guest Posts: Room Summary PTG Trading

Monday, Oct 7th

The day started with a downward drift, with price nearing our 5775 – 5770 target zone, just as we discussed in the DTS Briefing. We hit the Cycle Day 1 Average Decline at 5770, and a long trigger for crude oil was set at 75.60. The market opened quietly, and without any major economic reports, price action moved slowly but freely.

PTGDavid provided valuable insights, noting the narrow trading range and emphasizing the importance of managing trades wisely to avoid over trading in these conditions. Midday, sellers made a move, briefly testing the 5770 level before buyers stepped back in. We discussed the potential bear scenario, where a break below 5795 could lead to further declines toward the 5750 area.

We also kept an eye on Nasdaq (NQ), which showed aggressive selling but ultimately stayed in a cautious range. The broader market remains in a multi-day consolidation, possibly aiming for a retest of the 5725 handle.

Stay focused, manage risk, and let’s see how the week unfolds!

Economic Calendar

Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.

Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!