Follow @MrTopStep on Twitter and please share if you find our work valuable!

From Jeff Hirsch from @AlamancTrader

Barometer Rules: No Other Month Comes Close

January is now officially in the books—and with the S&P 500 up 1.4%, our January Barometer for 2026 is positive. This is the best thing for the market. When S&P 500 finishes up in January the full year is higher 41 of 46 times (89.1%). The average full-year gain is 16.9%. The next 11 months went up 87.0% of the time with an average gain of 12.2%. When it’s down, the year is up only 50% of the time with an average loss of -1.7% and the next 11 months are up 60% of the time with a paltry average gain of 2.1%.

January Barometer rules because no other month exhibits as much outperformance when the month is up versus down on the following 11-months or 12-months return. Since 1938, when the S&P 500 was up in January, the next 11-months average a gain of 11.8%. When January is down, the next 11-months average plummets to just 1.2%. In years with a positive January, the next 11 months have historically outperformed a down January by 10.6%. Over the following 12 months, the outperformance grew to 11.5%. As you can see from the bar chart, no other month comes close to this outperformance gap.

What a Positive January Means for 2026
With January 2026 now firmly positive, we’ve locked in the most important early signal of the year. This reading feeds directly into my broader Midterm Year outlook, the 4-Year Cycle, and what I believe remains a powerful AI Tech Super Boom still unfolding beneath the surface.

The key question now isn’t whether January matters—it’s how investors and traders should position for what historically follows. That’s where things get interesting.

Join Me for a Free January Barometer Webinar

I’ll be breaking all of this down—step by step—in a free public webinar where I’ll explain how this positive January Barometer is shaping my outlook for the rest of 2026 and beyond.
FREE WEBINAR
January Barometer Rules: 2026 Midterm Year Forecast Update
Wednesday, February 11, 2026, at 4:00 PM EST
Register here:

https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/regi…/7049066255831151961

During the webinar, I’ll cover:
• What the January Barometer is signaling for the rest of 2026
• How the Midterm Year and 4-Year Cycle are lining up
• Seasonal sector and ETF opportunities currently on my radar
• Off-the-radar AI and tech stocks positioned to benefit from the ongoing AI arms race
I’ll also explain why I believe 2026 could set up the next major buying opportunity, and why a move of as much as 50% from the 2026 low to the 2027 high is not out of the question.
Stay Ahead With Almanac Investor
If you want to stay on top of these signals as they develop, consider joining my Almanac Investor e-newsletter. Members receive weekly market updates, key seasonal insights, and my latest stock and ETF ideas.
For a limited time, you can save up to 54% and receive a FREE copy of the 2026 Stock Trader’s Almanac when you join.
Join Almanac Investor here:

https://stocktradersalmanac.com/…/get-Almanac-for-free…
January has spoken—and history suggests it’s worth listening.

Affiliate Disclosure: This newsletter may contain affiliate links, which means we may earn a commission if you click through and make a purchase. This comes at no additional cost to you and helps us continue providing valuable content. We only recommend products or services we genuinely believe in. Thank you for your support!

Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.

Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!