by Danny Riley

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New Week. New Nominees.

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Our View

Whether you voted for Trump or not, you had to expect some fireworks. This was something I was very concerned about—he’s going after newspapers, the courts that ruled against him, and the TV news networks. Sure, the stock market rallied sharply after he was elected, but I’m not sure he cares about that because it’s revenge time. Some say he’s simply getting some well-deserved payback, but there’s too much at stake for him to be doing some of the things he’s doing.

Here are a few noteworthy links from ZeroHedge:

Paul Tudor Jones on Rising U.S. Deficits and Debt:
Jones discusses how increasing interest rates and mounting U.S. deficits could lead to a fiscal crisis. His perspective reflects the long-standing fear that sustained government borrowing will trigger inflation, elevate interest rates, and eventually overwhelm the government’s ability to manage its debt obligations. Read more here.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services:
Vaccine stocks slid further after Trump announced Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as his pick to lead the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS). Details here.

Our Lean

This week there are 9 economic releases and 9 Fed speakers but the main event is the NVDA earnings on Wednesday after the bell. After losing $150 billion in market capitalization last week, Zacks expecting 74 cents a share in earnings on Wednesday, up 85% from a year ago and revenue jumping 81.1% from a year ago to $32.8 billion. Both Morgan Stanley and UBS raised their price targets on Nvidia stock to $160 and $185, respectively — implying upside between approximately 10% and 28% as of market close on Nov. 11.

The only thing I can say… expect the unexpected!

Our Lean: I’m not saying the ES and NQ can’t drop further, but based on last week’s price action and Friday’s decline, it seems like everyone is either short or heavily hedged. In my view, if the ES holds 5900 on Globex and rallies, it could set the stage for a larger bounce.

I recall similar sell-offs in November, and they almost always recover by the end of the month, often leading to a rally in December. The PPT (Plunge Protection Team) might be on the sidelines for now, but that likely won’t last.

MiM and Daily Recap

The ES traded down to 5930.75 on Globex at 3:30 am and rallied up to 5952.75 at 8:00 am Friday morning, opening the regular session at 5936.75. The ES made a high of 5941.75 and then sold off 39.75 points down to 5902.00 at 10:39, rallied 13.5 points up to 5915.50, sold off 16.25 points down to 5899.00 at 11:00, rallied 14.25 points up 5913.25 and then sold off 28.25 points down to a new low at 5885.00 at 12:56. After the low, the ES rallied 10.25 points up to 5895.25 at 1:20, sold off 18.5 points down to 5876.75, rallied 24.25 points up to 5901.25 at 3:24 it then dropped 14.75 points down to 5886.50 at 3:47 and traded 5898.25 as the 3:50 cash imbalance showed $528 million to buy. On the 4:00 cash close the ES traded 5896.25 and rallied up to 5905.25 at 4:04 and settled at 5900.00, down 74.25 points or -1.24%, its worst weekly performance since Sept. 6. The NQ settled at 20,503.25, down 478.50 points or -2.28%, also its worst week since Sept. 6th. The YM fared better, down 426 points, or 1%.

In the end, Trump’s cabinet choices and the Fed putting off lowering rates in December totally spooked the markets. In terms of the ES’s overall tone, it was terrible but at least the ES settled at 5900.00. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, volume was higher, with 297K ES contracts traded on Globex and 1.574 million traded on the day session for a total of 1.85 million contracts traded.

Gold futures fell for the seventh time in eight trading sessions since the election and are now 8% off the all-time high of $2,788.50 a troy ounce hit on Oct. 30. Bitcoin prices climbed above $90,000. The cryptocurrency traded at $91,487 as of 4 p.m. ET after striking a new intraday record above $93,000 earlier this week. The yield on the 10-year note inched higher to 4.426% after settling at 4.425% on Thursday.

How to read the MIM

Technical Edge

Fair Values for Nov 18, 2024:

S&P (SP): 23.62
Nasdaq (NQ): 88.88
Dow Jones (Dow): 145.76

Daily Breadth Data 📊

NYSE Breadth: 41% Upside Volume
Nasdaq Breadth: 42% Upside Volume
Total Breadth: 41% Upside Volume
NYSE Advance/Decline: 35% Advance
Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 28% Advance
Total Advance/Decline: 31% Advance
NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 65 / 73
Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 67 / 296
NYSE TRIN: 0.81
Nasdaq TRIN: 0.55

Weekly Breadth Data 📈

NYSE Breadth: 42% Upside Volume
Nasdaq Breadth: 55% Upside Volume
Total Breadth: 50% Upside Volume
NYSE Advance/Decline: 28% Advance
Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 28% Advance
Total Advance/Decline: 28% Advance
NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 543 / 147
Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 817 / 488
NYSE TRIN: 1.36
Nasdaq TRIN: 0.81

MTS Levels:

How to read/use the MrTopStep Levels

Room Summaries:

Polaris Trading Group Summary Friday, November 15, 2024

The day began with overnight fulfillment of lower target zones for @ES and @NQ, setting a bearish tone early. PTGDavid emphasized that OPEX would significantly influence market rhythms. Initial strategies focused on sustained offers below key levels—5965 for @ES and 20950 for @NQ—targeting deeper bearish zones.

Key Trading Developments:

Morning Session:
- 9:41 AM: Key Level 5930 in @ES received a buy response, but sellers dominated, maintaining pressure and holding the structure bearish.
- 10:06 AM: A 3410 short on @NQ was activated, yielding a full payout shortly after.
- Both @ES and @NQ displayed continued liquidation selling with sellers firmly in control. PTGDavid highlighted no opportunities for longs, cautioning against premature reversals.
Late Morning:
- Statistical levels like the , Gamma Guys 1 Standard Deviation level (5876) were tagged, signaling potential for a bounce. PTGDavid reminded traders to adhere strictly to their plans.
- Minor stabilization occurred in the 5900–5915 zonewith the Point of Control (POC) shifting to 5908, reflecting increased buy absorption.
Midday Activity:
- Despite stabilization efforts, selling persisted into the lunch period, with new lows being tested.
- Larger context noted by Blibby71 emphasized the 5890 zone as a significant 50% retracement of November’s range.
Afternoon Session:
- The market rhythms remained unchanged post-lunch, with sellers firmly in control, executing controlled selling without signs of panic.
- A late bullish attempt near 2:47 PM provided a brief rally but was ultimately quelled by end-of-day, leaving the week bearish overall.

Lessons and Highlights:

Follow Market Control: The emphasis on sellers’ control throughout the day reinforced the importance of trading with the dominant market rhythm.
Precise Execution: The 3410 short on @NQ demonstrated disciplined entry and adherence to target fulfillment.
Patience with Reversals: The room avoided speculative longs, waiting for clear structural shifts instead of catching falling knives.
Big Picture Analysis: Observations like Blibby71’s 5890 range midpoint emphasized the value of integrating broader technical levels with intraday strategy.

Despite persistent bearish trends, traders in the room maintained focus, leveraging key setups and avoiding unnecessary risks.

DTG Room Preview – November 18, 2024

Equities and Earnings
- S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100: Closed last week with respective losses of 2% and 3%, erasing much of their post-election rally.
- Earnings Spotlight:
  - Nvidia (NVDA) reports Wednesday. NVDA stock has gained 7% in the past month and over 180% year-to-date. Strong earnings could further boost market sentiment.
  - Other notable earnings: Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT), BJ’s (BJ), and Deere & Company (DE).
- Market Technicals:
  - S&P 500 E-mini futures (ES) remain in their uptrend channel. Key technical levels for the day include support at 5870–5916 and resistance up to 6004.
  - Volatility spiked following Friday’s selloff, with the ES 5-day average range at 59 points.
Economic Indicators
- Light calendar today with the NAHB Housing Market Index at 10:00 AM ET and remarks from Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee.
Commodities
- Gold (DEC): Buy signal with targets at 2602 and 2628. Signal cancels below 2564.
- Silver (DEC): Buy signal with initial target of 31.40. Signal cancels below 30.25.
- Copper (DEC): Sell signal active, projecting a downside to 3.98–3.85. Cancel above 4.16.
- Crude Oil (JAN): Sell signal, next target 65.90–65.40. Cancel above 69.00.
- Natural Gas (DEC): Buy signal active, targeting 3.01–3.09. Cancel below 2.76.
Currencies
- US Dollar Index (DEC): Buy signal active with targets at 107.17 and above. Cancel below 106.00.
Cryptocurrency
- Bitcoin (BTC/USD): Short-term buy signal from 91,500 with upside potential, but caution as signals cancel below 88,900.
Fair Value Updates
- As of today:
  - S&P: 23.62
  - Nasdaq 100: 88.88
  - Dow: 145.76
Key Observations
- Market uncertainty remains high, influenced by Fed signals and broader macroeconomic concerns.
- Traders are watching key technical levels, earnings, and volatility metrics closely to navigate the week.
Have a successful trading week!

ES Week vs. Week

We watched the market topple from new heights last week. We expected that if there was weakness that 5800 area would hold. So far that has not been tested it is the 5900 area this is proving a tough line to the bears. We stick with a 5800 × 6000 trading range for this week until we see consistent trend. Markets are still in a rising pattern.

NQ Week vs. Week