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Our View

It’s feast or famine when it comes to the ES and NQ trade. Friday, the ES rallied 109 points, Monday was a slow, slow pullback, and yesterday it was a slow chop higher. It used to be that the ES was the number one futures contract in the world for retail traders—but it’s not anymore.

While I am an S&P guy, I also worked at the “old Merc” in the gold pit and always loved the price action and big percentage moves. Crude oil has always been a mover. I received my crude oil education when the PitBull was ripping up the NYMEX crude option pit. The bonds were the biggest pit in the industry, churning out hundreds of thousands of contracts a day, but they were hard to trade with so much information the public never sees.

The grains? A very slow boat with depressed prices.

I guess by now you think I’m down on trading—and that’s partially right. Trading volume has fallen steadily over the last month and a half. Just do the math. I asked Hank from HL Camp: if there was a total of 1 million contracts traded, and you took out 150k from Globex, leaving 850k traded on the day, what percent of volume is program trading? And this was his answer:

I get it, it’s August, and I know that’ll change in September, but it’s hard to believe that total customer, non-program/algorithmic trading volume represents only 65k to 75k contracts? I know Hank is the pro on this subject, but I think it’s higher. Even if it isn’t, this shows how easily the contract can be manipulated by large institutional flows, ie thin to win.

I’ve always known that, but that was when the ES was doing 2 million to 3.5 million contracts a day, not like it is today.

In the end, it seems we’re stuck in what I call up-a-day, down-a-day price action. In terms of the ES and NQ’s overall tone, the NQ led the way higher. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, volume was on the low side at 1.047 million contracts traded.

There are no economic reports today, but Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin speaks at 12:00, and the big show—NVDA reports after the close. A long time ago, IBM was the bellwether of the S&P and a highly anticipated market event. Back in 2010, IBM’s total market capitalization was $180 billion, versus Nvidia’s market cap now at $4.39 trillion at $182/share

One of the big firms everyone watched when IBM was reporting was Solomon Brothers. They had the number every time. The desk was run by a guy I knew, Larry W., and his wife was a trader. No one ever saw her, but she was always around for the IBM earnings. It was always the biggest earnings event of the year and would move the SPU.

But that was then, and this is now. NVDA is the bellwether of the S&P, currently holding the largest weighting within the index at approximately 8%. It went from a total market cap of $350 billion at the start of 2023 to $4.39 trillion as of yesterday.

JPMorgan’s most recent earnings estimate for Nvidia (NVDA), made on August 25, 2025, projects July-quarter revenue of $46–$47 billion, slightly above consensus. They expect revenue guidance of $53–$54 billion+, also above Wall Street’s estimates. I think this is 100% part of why the ES and NQ rallied yesterday—and helping that idea along was the $1.7 billion 3:50 imbalance and the new highs that preceded it.

Options traders are pricing in about a $260 billion swing in Nvidia’s (NVDA) market value following the chipmaker’s second-quarter earnings. U.S. options market data shows Nvidia options are implying a roughly 6% swing for the shares in either direction.

Nvidia’s ($NVDA) market cap now sits just ~$1 trillion below Japan’s Nikkei 225—the world’s second-largest stock market after the U.S. That makes Nvidia bigger than the entire markets of the U.K., China, and Canada. Over the last 16 months, its value has doubled to ~$4.3T, giving it a 4.94% weight in the MSCI All Country World Index—nearly equal to Japan’s 4.97% share.

Guest Posts — Polaris Trading Group

Prior Session was Cycle Day 1: CD1 Low (6430.75) was established as selling spilled-over from the CD3 weakness.

This set the stage for a successful retest setting up the structural conditions for a powerful rally, which easily fulfilled some upside targets (6475 – 6485).

Options Gamma Squeeze and Market on Close Buy Imbalance sent price closing on the highs of the day.

Range was 56 handles on 1.042M contracts exchanged

For a more detailed recap of the trading session, click on this link: Trading Room RECAP 8.26.25

FREE TRIAL link to PTG/Taylor Three Day Cycle

 …Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2

Transition into Cycle Day 2: Normally for CD2 we are anticipating some consolidation MATD rhythms to begin the session.

Price closed the prior session with strong outgoing momentum, which may spill-over into today’s trading.

BTFD buyers were clearly active during the prior session as a bullish signal post JPOW speech.

As we posted: “Key for the next few trading sessions will be the response of buyers should sellers appear. The most bullish response would be seeing additional buyers (new money) entering on the dips.”

Of course, nothing changes for PTG…Simply follow your plan. Take only Triple A setups and manage the $risk. ALWAYS HAVE HARD STOP-LOSSES in-place on the exchange.

PTG’s Primary Directive (PD) is to ALWAYS STAY IN ALIGNMENT with the DOMINANT FORCE.

As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading. 

Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 6480+-, initially targets 6505 – 6510 zone. 

Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 6480+-, initially targets 6460 – 6455 zone.

Thanks for reading, PTGDavid

MiM and Daily Recap

The ES futures opened the overnight Globex session at 6460.25. Early trade saw a sharp drop, with a quick swing down to 6441.00 at 20:00, followed by a deeper low at 6430.75 just 45 minutes later. Sellers pressed the lifting to 6454.75 by 01:45, a 24-point recovery. A pullback carried prices down to 6435.00 at 03:00, before another rebound reached 6453.50 at 06:30. The final dip of the overnight trade occurred at 08:15, when ES printed 6443.00. Globex closed at 6451.00, down 9.25 points or -0.14% from its open and slightly weaker against the prior day’s cash close.

The regular session began with an open at 6450.75 and immediately found support from the Globex low, with a push to 6461.75 by 10:20. After a pullback to 6452.00 at 11:15, buyers regained control, notching a higher high at 6464.75 by 12:20, a 12-point move from the low. Another small advance followed at 13:25, with ES printing 6465.25. The afternoon session experienced a modest retracement to 6453.50 at 13:50, but momentum soon shifted upward. The regular session closed at 6481.00, up 30.25 points or +0.47% from the open.

In the cleanup session, ES extended slightly higher, settling at 6487.00, a gain of 6.25 points from the 16:00 close. For the full session, ES settled at 6487.00, marking a 26.25-point rise from the prior cash close, a gain of 0.41%.

Market Tone & Notable Factors

The overall tone was constructive despite the early overnight weakness. The Globex session showed volatility, with sellers pressing early, but the downside failed to extend, and buyers steadily worked the tape higher into the regular session. Once cash trading began, dips were shallow, and the tape built a sequence of higher highs and higher lows, culminating in a strong late-day rally.

The session’s cash-to-cash change of +26.25 points (+0.41%) underscores a bullish bias. Volume was light, with 829,000 contracts trading during the regular session.

Market-on-Close imbalance data showed a $1.07 billion buy imbalance around 15:52, with 54.6% of dollar flow to the buy side but only 39% of symbols participating. While the imbalance favored buyers, the symbol distribution leaned negative at -60.9%, suggesting selective strength concentrated in large caps rather than broad-based buying. The imbalance contributed to sustaining prices near highs into the final prints.

Overall, the session leaned bullish, with buyers defending levels throughout the day and late momentum carrying ES to its highest point near the close. The contract finished at 6487.00, leaving traders looking for follow-through into the next session.

How to read the MIM

Technical Edge 

Fair Values for August 27, 2025:

Daily Market Recap 📊

For Tuesday, August 26, 2025

Weekly Market  📈

For the week ending Friday, August 22, 2025

Calendars

Economic

Today

Important Upcoming / Recent

Earnings

Upcoming

Recent

Full Calendar

Trading Room Summaries

Polaris Trading Group Summary – Tuesday, August 26, 2025

Opening Context & Setup

Morning Session – Choppy & Cautious

Midday – LIS Hold & Setup

Afternoon Session – Precision Execution & Squeeze

Key Wins & Lessons

Positive Trades Highlight

Trader Takeaway

This day reinforced the power of discipline, patience, and precise execution. The clean afternoon trade rewarded those who stayed out of the morning chop.

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Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.

Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!