by Danny Riley

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Our View

After Trump got elected, I said several times that there would be a big uptick in volatility. Sure, there have been times of quiet and the VIX reacted in kind, but today is a whole new ball game. China is threatening the US, and Putin is saying, “If the US gives Ukraine Tomahawks, Russia will arm Latin America with Kalibr missiles.” This is definitely one of the spookiest Octobers in a very long time.

In short order, the ES traded down to 6718.25 on Globex, rallied, and opened Thursday’s regular session at 6739.25. It rallied 26.75 points up to 6766.00 at 9:54, sold off 27 points down to 6739.00 at 10:21, then rallied 36 points up to 6775.00 going into 1:00. It had a small pullback and then rallied to a new high at 6780.25 at 2:00, dropped down to the 6776 level, and rallied up to the high of the day—exactly where I said it would—at 6785.00.

It hung around the highs and started to drift down to the 6772 level at 3:48, traded 6777.50 as the 3:50 cash imbalance showed $5.3 billion to buy, and traded 6774.25 on the 4:00 cash close. After 4:00, the ES drifted back up to 6777.50 and settled at 6775.00, up 38 points or +0.56%. The NQ settled at 35,365.75, up 287.50 points or +1.14%.

In the end, I believe the selloff was just fuel for the upside fire. In terms of the ES’s overall tone, it was a very strong showing. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, volume was steady at 1.317 million contracts traded.

There are scheduled economic reports today.

For those of you who are not reading the paid subscription part of the Opening Print, I just want to say thank you for being a reader. I understand that this is not one of the well-known newsletters, but they will never provide the feeling or tone of the markets like I do. That feeling for the ES didn’t come from a college education, it didn’t come from a big Wall Street trading desk, and it wasn’t taught. It was self-learned from over 35 years on the trading floor. In that, I learned the true definition of “what doesn’t kill you makes you stronger,” and came out on the other side the man I am today. My view remains constant: buy the shakeouts. The ES and NQ are going a lot higher.

Our View

The stock market risk is going to rise in the days leading up to and after the Trump/Xi bilateral talks on October 30 in South Korea, through to the November 10 end of the China tariff truce.

Last night around 11:00, there were headlines saying that President Trump terminated trade negotiations with Canada, citing an advertisement featuring Ronald Reagan criticizing tariffs:

“Based on their egregious behavior, ALL TRADE NEGOTIATIONS WITH CANADA ARE HEREBY TERMINATED.”

But this doesn’t seem to be affecting the ES, as it traded up to 6798.575.

As of today, the government has been shut down for 24 days, and during that time, there has been no US data—until this morning—with the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 8:30 a.m. I think this is a big step for investors who have been flying blind. Oil is trading above $62.00 and gold is down 1.5%.

Why Stocks Are Not Yet in a Bubble – Goldman Sachs

Global equities, and especially technology stocks, show early signs associated with financial bubbles. But core differences set the current cycle apart from past episodes, writes Peter Oppenheimer, Goldman Sachs Research’s chief global equity strategist.

The market’s gains reflect sound fundamentals rather than rampant speculation or unsustainable leverage. Surging valuations for firms involved in AI and technology have largely arisen from the robust performance of established firms, not shaky startups.
Although market concentration is high, it’s not unprecedented. Similar cycles of industry dominance in finance or energy lasted for decades without necessarily culminating in crisis. In addition, most capital expenditures in tech are now financed internally rather than fueled by debt. This means financial leverage remains contained, limiting systemic risk even if sector corrections occur.

Our Lean

There is a lot riding on this numbers meeting. I’ve been trying to stay long because I think the ES is on its way to new contract highs, but I have to admit I have no idea what the CPI number will do.

If the markets push higher and take out the 6812.75 high, there is an enormous stack of buy stops that initially go up to the 6824 level. Above 6830, there’s another set of stops.

Our lean: What if the ES gaps higher? I think we could see some selling. And if the ES gaps way lower… I would have to try and buy the weakness. I’m going to leave it at that.

Intel: Innovation, Leadership, and Transformation

Rich Miller from @HandelStats

The Power of Leadership
After forty years in the markets, one lesson stands above all: leadership determines everything. Great products can only take a company so far; without the right leadership, even the best ideas falter. Conversely, visionary leaders have the ability to lift companies to heights their products alone could never reach. This truth is at the heart of Intel’s journey.

Intel’s Legacy of Innovation
Intel ($INTC) didn’t invent the semiconductor, but its story began with innovation and was shaped by the vision of its founders. From the invention of the transistor at Bell Labs in 1947, through the founding of Fairchild Semiconductor by Robert Noyce and Gordon Moore in 1957, the foundation was laid for Intel’s birth in 1968. Intel launched the 3101 memory chip in 1969 and, by 1971, introduced the world’s first commercial microprocessor—the 4004. Innovation has always been in Intel’s DNA.

Challenges and Missed Opportunities
Yet, over the years, Intel lost its way. Its products remained solid, sometimes brilliant, but leadership did not adapt quickly enough. The company missed crucial moments where vision was needed more than engineering skill.

A New Era and the Missing Piece
Now, as global supply chains shift, geopolitics reshape tech manufacturing, and advances in AI and chip design accelerate, Intel finds itself at the center of industry transformation. The company has found its missing piece in Lip-Bu Tan.

Lip-Bu Tan: The Visionary Builder
Lip-Bu Tan is not just another executive; he is a builder and a visionary, equally fluent in technology and capital. He inspires engineers, attracts investors, and is already reshaping Intel’s culture from within. The convergence of leadership, timing, and technology is setting the stage for a generational transformation.

I’ve followed Intel for years, long from $20. Right now, we are witnessing the rebirth of a global tech leader, driven by one man’s vision at exactly the right moment in history. The next chapter will be amazing to watch—and to be invested in.

— Rich@Handelstats.com

We’ve never offered a deal like this before, and it includes all our tools, including the Imbalance Meter.

Guest Posts:

SpotGamma Founders Note:

Get instant access to our partners’ real-time market data and insights not available anywhere else. Here is last night’s Founder’s note getting you ready for today’s market and explaining the constraints in yesterday’s market. – MrTopStep

Founder’s Note:

Futures are +30bps with CPI on deck at 8:30AM ET.

TLDR: If CPI data is >=in line then we see a path to 6,800 for today, and 6,825 is the big upside resistance strike to watch into Monday/Tuesday (i.e.that may be max upside). More concerning for today is the soft underbelly into and below 6,700. With this dynamic, a CPI miss could bring a sharp downside move – one that allows vols to reset higher. Those vols could be sticky at higher level given FOMC and Trump/XI next week. Given this, we eye 6,700 as light first support, and will look to be flat/short exposure <6,700.

Our risk-off level remains 6,700, with predominantly positive gamma (purple) above 6,700, and the biggest positive gamma zone from 6,775 to 6,825. A CPI miss could quickly plunge the SPX lower, and while 6,700 – 6,570 is positive gamma its quite light, and so we are weary about the strength of support below.

Should CPI be in line, we think very short dated vols will contract (particularly into a weekend) and that likely moves SPX into 6,800.

The bigger events are arguably next week, with FOMC on the 29th and Trump/Xi meeting confirmed for 10/30. You can now see how elevated the Forward IV (light teal) is, which suggests that SPX IV’s will be quite sticky into those events. This suggests that if CPI is in line, it will crush only very short dated IV’s (<=3-4DTE), which offers a fairly limited boost to stocks. If CPI misses, then vols could ratchet quite higher towards the Forward IV’s. For this reason, in line with the soft gamma underbelly into and 6,700, we will be very mindful of a sharp downside move today.

Get instant access to our partners real-time market data and insights not available anywhere else. Here is last night Founder’s note getting you ready for today’s market and explaining the constraints in yesterday’s market. – MrTopStep

MiM and Daily Recap

The overnight Globex session opened at 6733.50 and initially drifted lower, marking its first swing low at 6717.50 around 20:00 before rebounding to a session high of 6751.75 by 03:10. A sequence of lower highs developed into the early morning, with 6742.25 at 06:20 preceding a selloff to 6719.50 at 08:30—the final Globex low. From there, ES futures stabilized and edged higher into the 9:30 ET open, finishing the session modestly higher by 5.75 points (+0.09%) at 6739.25, though lagging the coming strength of the cash trade.

The regular session opened at 6739.25 and quickly extended higher, reaching 6766.00 at 09:50 for a 46-point (+0.68%) rally off the overnight low. A pullback into midmorning found support at 6739.00 at 10:15, holding well above the overnight base. The market then chopped higher, printing a lower high at 6763.75 at 11:30, followed by a midday dip to 6745.25 at 11:40—a modest retracement of -18.50 points (-0.27%). Momentum turned firmly upward through the afternoon as buyers lifted the ES to a new intraday high of 6785.75 by 14:50, up 40.50 points (+0.60%) from the midday low. Late-day trade saw mild profit-taking, with a pullback to 6771.50 at 15:50 and a steady close at 6774.75, up 35.50 points (+0.53%) from the open and up 37.75 points (+0.56%) versus the prior day’s cash close.

The brief cleanup session (16:00–17:00 ET) added a minor gain, rising from 6774.50 to 6777.75 for a 3.25-point advance (+0.05%), bringing the full session total to a net gain of 44.25 points (+0.66%). Combined volume across all sessions reached 1.32 million contracts, with the majority concentrated in the regular session (1.09M).

Market tone throughout the day was constructive. Buyers defended each dip, and the afternoon drive reaffirmed short-term bullish momentum, despite resistance at the 6780–6800 zone.

The Market-on-Close (MOC) imbalance data tilted heavily bearish, showing a net sell imbalance of approximately $4.97 billion at 15:51. Only 37% of symbols registered buy imbalances, while 63% were to sell. Sector data confirmed the pressure: technology (-85%), communication services (-91.6%), and financials (-87%) led the downside. The imbalance gradually eased into the close but remained negative across all major indices. The S&P 500 group alone showed an -86.8% sell skew.

Despite the overwhelming MOC selling, ES held firm near highs into the bell, suggesting that much of the imbalance was either paired or already anticipated by the market. Top sell programs included large-cap tech names such as NVDA, AAPL, MSFT, and META, while notable buy imbalances appeared in TSLA, ORCL, and MSTR—indicating a rotational bid into select growth and software names.

Overall sentiment leaned bullish-to-neutral. The steady climb through midday, sustained strength into the MOC print, and resilient close all underscored improving tone despite heavy closing imbalances. The ES settled at 6777.75, up 0.56% on the day, positioning the index near short-term resistance but maintaining strong underlying momentum heading into today’s trade.

On the MIM:

How to read the MIM

ES Levels

The bull/bear line for the ES is at 6765.75. This is the key level that must be held to maintain bullish momentum. If price remains above this level, upside continuation is favored.

Currently, ES is trading around 6794.25 in the Globex session, showing strength above the bull/bear line. Holding above 6765.75 keeps the door open for a test of resistance at 6785.75 and then 6814.25, the upper range target for today. A breakout above 6814.25 could extend the rally toward 6860.00.

On the downside, initial support sits at 6775.00, followed by stronger support at 6733.50 and 6717.00, the lower range target. A break below 6717.00 could shift the tone bearish and expose the next major support near 6671.25.

Overall, the trend bias remains bullish above 6765.75, but momentum fades quickly below this pivot. Intraday traders should monitor reactions around 6785.75 and 6814.25 for signs of exhaustion or continuation.

NQ Levels

The bull/bear line for the NQ is at 25,199. This is the key pivot level that defines directional bias for today. Holding above it favors the bulls, while failure to sustain above it suggests continued selling pressure.

Currently, NQ is trading around 25,371.50, indicating early strength above the bull/bear line. As long as price remains above 25,199, the near-term tone stays constructive with potential upside targets toward 25,446.50, the upper range target and our reach target at 25,679.50.

On the downside, if NQ loses 25,199 and fails to reclaim it, look for a retracement toward 25,012.25, followed by the lower range target at 24,951.50. A break below that zone could open the door for a deeper test toward 24,718.50.

Resistance levels sit at 25,446.50 and 25,679.50. Support levels come in at 25,012.25 and 24,951.50.

Overall, the bias remains bullish above 25,199, but if momentum stalls below 25,446.50, be alert for potential rejection and reversal back toward mid-pivot support.

Technical Edge

Fair Values for October 24, 2025

SP: 35.07
NQ: 149.65
Dow: 182.67

Daily Breadth Data 📊

For Thursday, October 23, 2025

NYSE Breadth: 63.93% Upside Volume
Nasdaq Breadth: 61.47% Upside Volume
Total Breadth: 61.72% Upside Volume
NYSE Advance/Decline: 64.06% Advance
Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 64.89% Advance
Total Advance/Decline: 64.59% Advance
NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 83 / 24
Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 131 / 85
NYSE TRIN: 1.07
Nasdaq TRIN: 1.13

Weekly Breadth Data 📈

Week Ending Friday, October 17, 2025

NYSE Breadth: 56.65% Upside Volume
Nasdaq Breadth: 54.69% Upside Volume
Total Breadth: 55.38% Upside Volume
NYSE Advance/Decline: 64.39% Advance
Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 58.52% Advance
Total Advance/Decline: 60.63% Advance
NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 230 / 136
Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 564 / 296
NYSE TRIN: 1.36
Nasdaq TRIN: 1.15

Calendars

Economic Calendar Today

This Week’s High Importance

Earnings:

Full Calendars

Trading Room News:

Polaris Trading Group Summary – Thursday, October 23, 2025

Thursday was a strong day in the PTG trading room, marked by multiple successful trade opportunities, excellent community engagement, and disciplined execution around key levels outlined in the premarket plan. The session was highlighted by bullish follow-through to major upside targets before afternoon volatility kicked in ahead of Friday’s CPI data.

Morning Plan and Market Setup

Manny kicked off the day with a detailed trade plan centered around three key long zones:

6735.50 ES: Continuation long above this line-in-the-sand.
6710.50 ES & 6685.50 ES: Support buys on exhaustion and reclaim setups.
“Look Below & Fail” strategies were also laid out at 6713 and 6690 for responsive entries.

These levels provided the roadmap for multiple trades during the session, and the market interacted cleanly with them throughout the day.

Execution Highlights

Strong Opening Drive

Overnight target of 6750 was hit, then price pulled back below 6735, setting up early short-term downside.
Opening Range (OR) trades were engaged by several members including Bruce F, who confirmed hitting TGT 2 on ES.
PTGDavid provided ongoing scenario updates, including potential recovery rallies and key structural levels.

Bosier’s Tactical Trading

Bosier stood out with a series of high-probability scalps, including:

Short entries from 59.75, with strategic adders and exits.
Long reversals around 43.75, scaling out with precision to 58.75.
Named “Trader of the Day” and awarded the Kewpie doll for his smooth execution and consistent profit-taking.

Lesson from Bosier: Recognizing market exhaustion and adapting quickly can provide multiple intraday opportunities even within a choppy tape.

Community Learning & Support

DanV offered excellent advice to Roy_ about using ATR-based systems methodically instead of spot trading them — a great reminder about systematic discipline.
Bruce shared details on OR stop management and confirmed successful 15m OR targets hit on both ES and NQ.
Ongoing chatter reinforced the importance of execution, preparation, and mindset.

Targets Hit

6765: Cleared midday per David’s roadmap.
6785: The Cycle Day 1 Range Projection Target was officially hit late in the day.
- This validated the trade plan and patient long positioning.
- David made the callout with an image upload marking the level.

Caution Into the Close

Afternoon chop and “flip-floppy rhythms” emerged as traders squared up ahead of today’s rescheduled CPI.
$5.3B MOC sell imbalance signaled institutional risk-off behavior near the close.
Reminder: Market still trading within 10/10’s massive 250pt range, per Blibby.

Key Takeaways

Plan the trade, trade the plan: Levels held significance throughout the day, and both continuation and responsive setups were rewarded.
Upside target (6785) hit = a clear win for the day’s strategy.
Bosier’s trades exemplified executional excellence.
Afternoon volatility a good reminder to protect profits and not overtrade into uncertainty.

Looking Ahead

Eyes on today’s CPI release – expect elevated volatility.
Manage expectations and risk, especially if positioned overnight.
Continue to lean on structured setups with clear triggers and risk levels.

“Thank you sir… may I have another!” — Phrase of the day, fittingly shouted by David as the market delivered on the long roadmap.

Overall: A Strong Day for those who followed the plan and stayed disciplined. Let’s carry the momentum into today with eyes wide open ahead of CPI.

DTG Room Preview – Friday, October 24, 2025

Markets are poised for key economic data releases today: CPI at 8:30am ET, Flash PMIs at 9:45am ET, and UoM Sentiment/Inflation Expectations at 10:00am ET. With the government shutdown now the second-longest, CPI inflation (expected near 3% YoY) will be the main focus.

Macro & Geopolitics:
- President Trump abruptly ended trade talks with Canada over a Reagan-themed Ontario ad defending free trade and opposing tariffs, citing interference in a pending Supreme Court case.
- Oil prices surged ~7% this week amid new US sanctions on Russian oil to India; OPEC stands ready to raise production. EU sanctions also target Russian energy infrastructure.
Earnings & Corporate News:
- Intel (INTC) jumped 7% on a Q3 beat, reporting $0.23 EPS (vs. $0.01 est), driven by AI chip demand. Notable backing from Nvidia (4% stake), SoftBank, and a 9.9% US gov’t stake.
- Google (GOOGL) inked a multi-billion-dollar deal to provide 1 million AI chips to Anthropic, solidifying its role in AI infrastructure. Funding questions for Anthropic remain.
- Target (TGT) shares rose on news it will cut 8% of its corporate staff (~1,800 jobs), its first major layoff in a decade.
Premarket Earnings Watch: BAH, KOF, ENI (E), GD, HCA, ITW, PG, SNY, SHG.

Market Technicals:
- S&P 500 volatility continues to decline, with the ES 5-day ADR down to 86.50 points.
- ES holds mid-channel in short-term uptrend; 50-MA (~6651.50) serves as soft support.
- Whale bias tilting bullish despite light large-trader volume.
Key Technical Levels:
- Resistance (TL Rs): 6912/17, 6982/87, 7217/22
- Support (TL Ss): 6630/35

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Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.

Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!!