Market Review
The ESZ20 spent most of the week inside last Monday’s Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine monster bullish move that sent the ESZ20 to new all-time highs. This week’s Moderna 94.5% effective COVID-19 vaccine announcement keeps the ESZ20 bulls happy despite the one million new US coronavirus cases last week and President Trump’s refusal to accept the US election results and start the transition for President-elect Biden’s team.
Most of Trump’s voter fraud lawsuits have been either thrown out by judges as flimsy or have been withdrawn by Trump voters who suspected there could have been fraud. As of Monday, only 4 Trump cases remain, 1 in Pennsylvania, 1 in Georgia, and 2 in Michigan. Trump will likely spend the rest of his days claiming a stolen election and voter fraud, but if Biden’s transition team can get access to national security briefings this week, that announcement will likely be ESZ20 bullish. A coronavirus relief package is still a bullish possibility, but Trump has backed away from directly negotiating with House Democrats putting a deal into the hands of Congress.
Last week’s inside 3515’s structural support area held the week’s low with tests on Tue, Wed, and Thu. All other support and resistance remain the same:
Resistance Areas (above):
3645-3670s
Support Areas (below):
3575-3590s
3506-3518s
3428-3456s
3358-3382s
3300-3319s
3225-3243s
Volatility took a nosedive last week as the ESZ20 consolidated under 3570. The ESZ20 slowly worked higher until Monday’s Moderna announcement. The 5-day ESZ20 daily average range has dropped from over 113 points last Monday to 58 points this Monday. The ESZ20 is in short-term, intermediate-term, and long-term uptrends.
The ESZ20 should test its 3668 all-time high this week as the cash S&P 500 closes at new all-time highs starting last Friday. Expect the ESZ20 to go into grind higher mode unless there is some bullish news to send the index higher. There is a large low-volume area between 3575 and 3668 which the ESZ20 could spend much of this week working.
Economic Calendar
Closing Prices
In the Tradechat Room
MiM
Flip-Flop all around and a small MOC (Bigger on NQ) to the sell side, but it was all buying on the 15:55 candle into the close and a nice +10 candle looking forward to earnings.
Questions? Please email me: Marlin@mrtopstep.com
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Covid Corner:
Checking in on the USA as a whole, cases continue to rise at a quickening pace, now averaging around 160K new cases a day. Friday could be a headline day with 200K new cases in one day. New daily deaths are now higher than the summer peak and also starting to quicken. This wave is a bit more shared geographically than the spring and summer waves so we haven’t exhausted resources yet except in a few hotspots, but if we can’t get new cases to slow, we will be there very quickly.
Wear your masks!
Stay home!
Take your Vitamin D!
Chart of the Day
GMTT – chart of the day – Soybeans – Nov 17, 2020
Soybeans (JAN)
It has been an impressive rally in the beans since we went long at 898.
In percentage a move of over 30%, but now the rally looks overstretched and it’s time to take profit.
While still on a buy signal we are looking for a pullback and want to go short below 1135.
For more info and how to sign up for a 14-day free trial of the Global Macro Technical Thoughts research report please visit our website:
GLOBEX
| (ESH20:CME) GLOBEX Session | (ESH20:CME) Day Session |
| High 3637 | Opening Print: 3611 |
| Low: 3582 | High 3623 |
| Volume: 296K | Low: 3596.75 |
| ES Settlement 3623 | |
| Total Volume 1.29M |
S&P 500 Futures RECAP – Trade Date 11/16/2020
New All Time High Closing Print; Never In Doubt
After trading in a 51.00 handle overnight range leaning higher, the S&P 500 futures opened Monday’s regular session at 3611, up 16.75 handles and went on to trade an early high of 3613.50 in the first half-hour before selling down to the daily low of 3596.75 just before 10:00 CT. From there, the ES mounted a rally that would extend to the morning high of 3623
The afternoon would continue to see the surge of buying as the S&Ps were firm into the final hour, then saw a buying surge late in the day printing a daily high of 3623, a 42.50 handle bounce from the morning low. However, profit-taking into the close pushed the ESZ to settle at 3623, up 43 handles or +1.38 % on lower volume of 1.29 million.
In terms of the day’s overall price action, it was all about buying the low just ahead of 10:00 and enduring the late-day weakness into the final hour.
OUR VIEW
Boys With The Better Seats Rule #Moderna #TSLA
If you have any doubt about the guys with the better seats existing maybe you should just look Friday’s late-day RIP. The ES got bought on Friday’s close and reopen, ripped higher on Globex Sunday night and then went sharply higher after the positive vaccine news. Are you going to tell me that Goldman and JPMorgan were short all that? No, only us dummies that don’t believe this kind of shit happens and try selling it! Luckily I was not part of that, I was long late in the day and got out early only to see the NQ rally 60 points straight up from where I covered my long. I know they say there is no way that this type of news doesn’t get leaked but I guess that comes down to how you interpret the word ‘leaked’. If a sales guy gets all day orders to buy, day in and day out, you don’t think the cash guy knows the scoop? Of course they do, they are not going to let millions in firm money get smoked out the window. Example; sales guy Tom sees trader Steve in the UBS kitchen every day at 9:10 ET. Trader Steve asks sales guy Tom what he thinks and Tom says ‘I think the markets go up today with the Dow Jones leading the markets higher’. Ha! It may not be that easy but who says someone doesn’t get texted on their iPhone saying the sky is very blue today meaning lots of buying. I don’t know the exacts and no one knows for sure but trust me, it makes it a lot easier if you know what the institutional flow is.
Our view, there is an old MrTopStep trading rule that if the markets are going up we want to go for the ride. I guess that coincides with the old adage about the trend being your friend. Our lean, selling the early rallies/gap ups and buying the pullbacks has been a very distinctive pattern. You have two choices; sell the early rallies and buy the midmorning pullback or just be patient and go with the trend and buy the pullbacks. Remember, if you catch a good pullback or low don’t forget that the average RTH 3-day ES trading range is 42.50 and the 5-day is down to 39.80 handles.
Danny Riley is a 39-year veteran of the CME trading floor. He ran one of the largest S&P desks on the floor of the CME Group since 1985.
As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Decisions to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in the forum will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
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