Market Review
GLOBEX
| (ESH20:CME) GLOBEX Session | (ESH20:CME) Day Session |
| High 3666.00 | Opening Print: 3648.75 |
| Low: 3646.50 | High 3672.75 |
| Volume: 160,000 | Low: 3642.25 |
| ES Settlement 3670.25 | |
| Total Volume 1.0 M |
S&P 500 Futures Recap – December 2, 2020
S&P 500 Futures: NQ Up 7 Sessions in a Row
After trading in a 29.50 handle overnight range, the S&P 500 futures opened Wednesday’s cash session at 3648.75, down 10.75 handles and traded down to the daily low of 3642.25 in the opening minutes before rallying higher through the rest of the morning making an early high of 3664.75 just before noon. After an early afternoon pullback to 3655.00, the ES started to rally again pushing the futures up to a new daily high of 3672.75 in the closing minutes of the session.
The ESZ20 would go on to settle the day at 3670.25, up. 2.95 or +0.08% on total volume that went just over a million contracts traded. In terms of price action, it was all about buying the low in the opening minutes and holding on into the close of day.
Economic Calendar
Closing Prices
In the Tradechat Room
MiM
A decent MiM set up by 3 pm ET and held up until the reveal at 15:50 which had a nice initial push up on the 15:50 candle of five points. The 15:50 closing candle pushed higher into the close.
Questions? Please email me: Marlin@mrtopstep.com
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Covid Corner:
The earth has gone flat. This third surge has now plateaued just under 600K new cases a day with daily deaths holding steady at just under 10K a day.
Wear your masks!
Stay home!
Take your Vitamin D!
Chart of the Day
GMTT – Chart of the Day – Wheat – Dec 3, 2020
Wheat (MAR)
Wheat reached our short-term downside target which was 585. Now we need to see if the pullback from 635 will hold here. As you can see on the chart below 575 Wheat will move another leg lower. However, based on our overall technical model we expect to see another bounce. This bounce will be confirmed on an intraday close above 591. Traders that like to take this trade should keep a suggested sell stop at 575.
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Our View
Covid19 ‘Relief Bill’ Talk Spurs Bounce
You know what? Nothing makes sense anymore. Nancy Pelosi pushed for a $2.2 trillion coronavirus relief bill but now a new bipartisan group is talking about a $908 billion proposal designed to help buoy workers and businesses through March. That seems more like a letdown but the markets didn’t see it that way. I am going to keep it short.
Our view, I think by next Friday the ES will be a lot higher. If you are patient and look for that early sell-off and early low and hold you get paid handsomely. Yesterday I was not patient and I made a sequence of losing NQ trades that went from 1 lot to 5 lots. I know I should not be doing that but if I can make on 1 and 2 lots why can’t I make on 4 lots or 6 lots? I’ll tell you why/ Because I’m always trading scared. I want fast, profitable in/outs. Some trades can go on for several hours or overnight while others can last 6 seconds. The latter is usually not a winner. The problem with the day session is the night session. Meaning there is so much trade and movement at night that the ES goes quiet and has to rebuild its thrust. You see this after the morning low and rally and then after 2:00 CT. The futures need a better picture of the imbalance and MOC and once they do you get great thrust trades if you catch it right. Our lean, the ES is in a big ‘back and fill’ pattern and there are a lot of buy stops above 3672.70 up to 3684. My guess is we see that stop run today. If the ‘patterns’ fit and you’re agile, you can sell the higher open or the early rally and look for the early low that has been coming earlier and earlier and buy the weakness, pull back, and look for a rip. This low volume pattern is pretty solid but Jobs Friday is bound to change that. If indeed we do run the ES buy stops and hold above 3681 my guess is 3696 and 3730 next week.
As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Decisions to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in the forum will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
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