Market Review
Polaris Trading Group: Taylor 3 Day Cycle Commentary Author: David D Dube (PTGDavid)
***Written 8 pm Tuesday evening for Wednesday’s trading
Tuesday’s Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Price continued this cycle’s rally up to projected target at 3408 outlined in prior DTS Briefing 09.15.20, which stated a bullish scenario: “1.) Price sustains a bid above 3390, initially targeting 3400 – 3408 zone.” Range was 42.75 on 1.285M contracts exchanged.
Note: Contract Rollover is more than 50% rolled into front month December.
…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3
This leads us into Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Price has fulfilled the 3 Day Cycle Rally Objective of 3408 in the prior session, at which time the current decline / pullback began. Larger degree swing is bullish, so as such, there are two scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
1.) Price sustains a bid above 3390, initially targeting 3400 – 3410 zone.
2.) Price sustains an offer below 3390, initially targeting 3380 – 3370 zone.
For more detailed information for both bullish and bearish projected targets, please visit: PTG 3 Day Cycle and/or reference the Cycle Spreadsheet below:
Link to access full Cycle Spreadsheet >> Cycle Day 1 (CD1)
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Covid Corner:
Everything is not OK in Oklahoma as the state fights to regain control from an end of July peak. Deaths are following case leads right now. OK is on top of our worst states list. The entire list was quite red today. Sailors take warning.
To use our table, go to https://t2r4.com/cv19/views. Each column is sortable and if you click on a cell you will get a time-based chart of the state.
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Chart of the Day
GLOBEX
| (ESH20:CME) GLOBEX Session | (ESH20:CME) Day Session |
| High 3406.25 | Opening Print: 3400.00 |
| Low: 3366.25 | High 3409.00 |
| Volume: 389,000 | Low: 3378.50 |
| ES Settlement 3395.00 | |
| Total Volume 1.89 M |
S&P 500 RECAP – Trade Date 09/14/ 2020
#ES Money Maker Chart
S&P 500 Futures: First Consecutive Higher Closes Since September’s Open
After trading higher in the overnight session the S&P 500 futures opened Tuesday’s cash session at 3400.00, up 28.00 handles, and then rallied up to 3409.00 in the opening minutes in what would hold as the high of the day. From there, the morning turned sideways with the ES pulling back to 3394.50 at 9:45, and then rallied to a lower high of 3407.75 at 10:15. The S&Ps remained within this range for the rest of the morning.
During the noon hour, the ESU did manage to reach 3408.25 at 12:15 before a wave of selling entered the market that kept a persistent offer. The benchmark index futures would go on to print 3378.50 at 2:45, the low of day, a 30.50 handle move off the highs, nearly retracing back to Monday’s close.
However, in the closing minutes, buyers would show up pushing the index up to 3396.75 before settling at 3395.00, up 23.00 handles or +0.70%.
Total volume was a strong 1.89 million contracts traded. In terms of price action, it was similar to Monday when the bulk of the buying was done overnight, leaving sellers to carry much of the momentum of the day. Nevertheless, the S&P 500 closed with consecutively higher closes for the first time since the open of September.
OUR VIEW:
Day Two Of The Fed’s Two-Day Meeting
It’s unlikely that the Fed will change its stance much today. In its first policy meeting since Fed Chair Jerome Powell announced a more accommodative stance on inflation, the central bank could switch its treasury purchases toward more long-dated debt to keep long-term yields low. I don’t see that as a negative but I think the ES rallies for the first part of the day and sells off late. I am going to keep this short. It’s been a long week and it’s only Tuesday evening.
Our view is to buy the early pullback and sell the rips with an early long bias then I expect some type of late-day sell-off after the Fed’ headlines hit and then get a good look at the price action in the last 30 minutes for a possible rip.
Market Vitals Technical Analysis
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As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
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