Market Review
GLOBEX
| (ESH20:CME) GLOBEX Session | (ESH20:CME) Day Session |
| High 3928.50 | Opening Print: 3924.50 |
| Low: 3909.50 | High 3926.00 |
| Volume: 145,000 | Low: 3878.25 |
| ES Settlement 3908.75 | |
| Total Volume 1.5M |
S&P 500 Futures Recap – Trade Date February 10, 2021
Sideways Close 2 Days In a Row
After trading in a 19.00-handle overnight range, the S&P 500 futures opened Wednesday’s cash session at 3924.50, traded the 3926.00 daily high on the open, and then sold off for the next 75 minutes down to the daily low of 3878.25. From there, the futures would get a lift for the rest of the morning pushing higher in the noon hour, through the afternoon and rebounding back up to 3914.50 before late day sellers sold off into the close settling at 3908.75, down three ticks on solid volume of 1.5 million contracts. In terms of price action, it was all about selling the open then going long at 9:45 holding into 2:00.
Economic Calendar
Closing Prices
In the Tradechat Room
MiM
Rotation. Another insignificant MOC, just -500B sell with no strong lean. There is no conviction to injecting more cash into the market, at least not via the MOC. Slowly sealing in a top for some short-term correction I would think.
Tuesday they loved the Financial Services sector and bought in, yesterday not so much with 94 symbols having imbalance and 71% of them were to the sell-side.
Questions? Please email me: Marlin@mrtopstep.com
Get the skinny when we get it: Join the MiM.
Covid Corner:
Daily news cases in the US continue to see improvement almost universally. The new daily deaths, however, stubbornly refuse to match with 11 states still reporting rising cases and only 16 staying even.
Wear your masks!
Stay at least 10 feet behind someone wearing a mask! (Particularly in a checkout line)
Stay home!
Take your Vitamin D!
Chart of the Day
Elizabeth Stanton, Stephen Spratt and John Ainger Mon, 8 February 2021, 12:14 pm·4-min read
(Bloomberg) — Global markets from U.S. and European bonds to stocks and oil are sending a clear signal: inflation is finally coming back.
The market-implied pace of U.S. consumer-price increases briefly accelerated to the fastest since 2014, and 30-year Treasury yields temporarily topped 2% for the first time in a year as rising expectations for an economic recovery fueled an oil rally. Over in Europe, a swap-market gauge of future inflation is close to its highest level since 2019.
Treasury Long Bond Reaches 2% Milestone as Global Yields Awaken
The S&P 500 index of U.S. equities has notched fresh highs, while the Stoxx Europe 600 Index built on its best weekly gain since mid-November. Brent crude futures rallied more than 1% on Monday, adding to last week’s 6.2% advance. It’s all coming ahead of a report Wednesday that’s forecast to show U.S. consumer prices rising at a quickening pace.
Our View
Lingering Concerns
As the markets continue to march higher and the US begins to find its way out of the Covid-19 pandemic there are lingering concerns and the first one is not to make any mistakes that could impact the effort. While zero rates and stimulus are a driving force behind the stock market rally, rising debt, stagnant economic growth, disappointing productivity, wage growth and an aging population continue to overshadow the effort.
I personally do not think this rally will end well but I also don’t see the end in sight. Yes, there is no doubt the markets are over-extended, but like yesterday’s 48-point drop, the ES quickly rebounded 35 points. What the decline did was knock some longs out, get the sellers short and then used those shorts in the squeeze on the way back up.
Our view, I had thought we could see some downside going into the end of the week but I’m not sure we didn’t see that yesterday. Our lean is to sell the early rallies and buy weakness with tight stops.
Danny Riley is a 39-year veteran of the CME trading floor. He ran one of the largest S&P desks on the floor of the CME Group since 1985.
As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Decisions to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in the forum will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
No responses yet