Market Review
GLOBEX
| (ESH20:CME) GLOBEX Session | (ESH20:CME) Day Session |
| High 3358.25 | Opening Print: 3331.75 |
| Low: 3291.25 | High 3384.00 |
| Volume: 380,000 | Low: 3329.25 |
| ES Settlement 3339.00 | |
| Total Volume 1.6 M |
S&P 500 RECAP – Trade Date 09/30/ 2020
#ES Money Maker Chart
S&P 500 Futures: September Goes Away With a 92.75 Handle Range That Closes With Little Changed
After a 67.00 handle overnight range, the S&P 500 futures opened Wednesday’s regular session at 3331.75, down 2.25 handles, made a morning low two ticks lower and rallied strongly early in the session, travelling up to 3376.75 for a morning high with consistent buy pressure through 10:00 CT. After a 13.75 handle pullback to 3363.00 for a noon low, the ES ran up to 3384.00, printing the high of day just after 1:00, up 52.75 handles from the morning low.
However, the equity markets would reverse just after 1:00 in a strong offering that pushed the index futures down to 3329.25, the low of day just before 2:30. Late in the session, the markets did manage to rally up to 3364.00 before settling at 3339.00, up 5.00 handles or +0.14%.
Total volume was a light 1.6 million given the wide range with huge swings. In terms of price action, it was all about buying the open, holding into the early afternoon, and then fading the rally midday, grabbing the sell momentum into the final hour.
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MiM
The trend was down in the last two hours of trading. There was a contra trade in there from 15:20 into the reveal which was a decent 1.2B to buy as tech got bought back after selling yesterday.
Questions? Please email me: Marlin@mrtopstep.com
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Covid Corner:
The tri-state area that was the earliest and harders hit area of the US has now seeing uptrends through September. These trends as of now are not showing up in deaths which both lag and are much smaller compared to that original March infection.
To use our table, go to https://t2r4.com/cv19/views. Each column is sortable and if you click on a cell you will get a time-based chart of the state.
Wear your masks!
Stay home!
Take your Vitamin D!
Chart of the Day
OUR VIEW:
Record Volatility Ahead
I think what we saw yesterday is going to be commonplace over the next two or three months. Huge moves and wayward headlines. I picked what I believe are the top parts out of the Stock Trader’s Almanac about the ups and downs of October:
October is considered the ‘jinx month’ because of its crashes in 1929 and 1978, the 544 point drop on Oct 17, 1997, back to back massacres in 1978 and 1979, Friday the 13th in 1998, and the 2008 credit crisis meltdown. That said, October is also known as a ‘bear killer’ and has turned the tide in 12 post- WWII bear markets in 1946, 1957,1960, 1962,1966,1974, 1987,1990,1998, 2001, 2002, and 2011. The worst 6 months for stocks end with October. October is the best month for the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq from 1993 to 2007. Presidential election year Octobers since 1950, #12 Dow-0.8%, #12 S&P down 0.7%, #12 Nasdaq down 2.1%. October is a great time to buy, big October gains five years from 1999 to 2003 after atrocious Septembers.
I have to admit, after Tuesday night’s debate, I have no idea who the next president will be and nor do I think we should get freaked out about a ‘mammoth sell-off’ Will stocks sell-off into the election/recount? I suspect they will but someone sent me this yesterday: Since 1945 the stock market has increased at double the rate during Democratic presidencies compared with periods when the nation was led by GOP presidents. (Remember the 240% rise during Bill Clinton’s term?) I am hedging my portfolio with December puts in case of a “stand back, stand by” scenario that turns ugly. As soon as there is calm I shall put my remaining cash to work and go 100% all-in. Interest rates will remain low whoever is in charge, but with the added benefit that a ‘clean sweep’ would trigger massive infrastructural spending “like you’ve never seen” and the market will rise ‘bigly’, gigantically ‘bigly’.”
Our view, I had internet problems yesterday and didn’t trade until the last hour and it was a bloody mess. Sometimes it’s just better being a spectator. That said, I think the ES is going higher but I also think you have to buy the pullbacks keeping in mind that the average 5-day RTH trading range is 53.20 handles. While the stats show the first trading day of October has been down 8 of the last 14 occasions I cannot rule out new money being put to work in the first few trading sessions of the new month.
Market Vitals Technical Analysis
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As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
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