Market Review
| (ESH20:CME) GLOBEX Session | (ESH20:CME) Day Session |
| High 3460.00 | Opening Print: 3456.25 |
| Low: 3445.25 | High 3474.00 |
| Volume: 222,000 | Low: 3449.50 |
| ES Settlement 3473.50 | |
| Total Volume 1.5 M |
S&P 500 RECAP – Trade Date 10/09/ 2020
S&P 500 Futures: Up 9 of the Last 12 Sessions
After a sideways 14.75-handle overnight range, the S&P 500 futures opened Friday’s regular session at 3456.25, up 18.75 handles, and then traded up to an early morning high of 3461.50 before selling down to 3449.50 at 9:30 CT for what would amount to the low of the day. From there the futures would rally the remainder of the morning, pushing up to a high of 3474.00 at 11:15 and then pulled back modestly into the noon hour.
The S&Ps would print an afternoon low of 3459.75 at 1:15 before setting up for a late Friday RIP as the index would climb in the late afternoon up to a high of day of 3474.00 in the final moments of the session settling at 3473.50, up 36.00 handles or +1.08%.
In terms of price action, buyers of the early morning and afternoon lows reaped the rewards. Total volume was another light 1.15 million.
Economic Calendar
Closing Prices
In the Tradechat Room
MiM
The MOC is starting to build. There should more action as we move towards the election. The 15:50 reveal was about 1B to sell, but weaker breadth with 64% of the cash and symbols on the sell-side. That selling was pre-run at the 15:30 candle leaving the 15:50 candle to run up into the close.
Questions? Please email me: Marlin@mrtopstep.com
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Covid Corner:
Round 3.0 in the US as we curve up from our Labor Day low. Daily deaths, for now, remain flat at about 730/day.
To use our table, go to https://t2r4.com/cv19/views. Each column is sortable and if you click on a cell you will get a time-based chart of the state.
Wear your masks!
Stay home!
Take your Vitamin D!
Chart of the Day
OUR VIEW:
22 Days To The Presidential Election
There are only 22 days and 17 trading sessions until the November 3rd presidential election. I can’t speak for you but that seems like an eternity. On September 24th the ES traded down to 3198 and on September 25th the ES made a low of 3206.50 and traded all the way up to 3296.25 and settled at 3285.50. Since then the ES has rallied all the way up to 3480 on Friday’s close which puts it up 282 handles in 12 sessions or +23.5 handles per session. I voiced my concerns about how the public is generally led to believe a catastrophe is coming in October and so far the ‘bear killer’ (October) has lived up to its reputation. Does that mean you’re supposed to lower your guard? No, but aside from the election hopes are rising that the third-quarter earnings season could come in better than expected and that corporate profits could push the S&P even higher. Despite profits among companies expected to fall sharply from last year, analysts have been lifting their estimates over the course of the quarter which again goes against what the public has been led to believe.
Earning Season
JPMorgan Chase & Co. is set to report on Tuesday followed by Bank of America Corp. and Wells Fargo & Co. on Wednesday. Bellwethers including Johnson & Johnson, Delta Air Lines Inc, and UnitedHealth Group Inc are also set to report earnings this week. In addition to the election noise and earnings, the ongoing stimulus talks will continue and on the economic front retail sales for September is set to be released Friday which will shed light on consumer spending.
Our view, volume has been dropping precipitously over the last several sessions. ES volume has gone from over 2.25 million contracts traded to just over 1 million contracts a day. In my view, I think that means the investors are starting to take a more guided approach to buying stocks but that has not stopped the ES and NQ from rising. Our lean, I think the ES is headed to the 3530 level but I also think you have to be careful of any wayward headlines. You can sell the early rallies and buy weakness or just be patient and buy the pullbacks.
Market Vitals Technical Analysis
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As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
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